ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ISRAEL and HEZBOLLAH – 8/6/06 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, Aug. 7, 2006
Public See Blame to Share in Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
Americans find room to criticize both sides in the Israel-Hezbollah war: A majority says Hezbollah is mainly to blame for civilian casualties in Lebanon, given its location in civilian areas. But most also say Israel hasn't done enough to avoid those casualties.
Indeed Americans divide evenly on whether Israel's bombing of civilian areas is justified – a tepid level of support for a longtime ally. And while very few blame Israel alone for the conflict, more blame both sides equally than blame only Hezbollah.
Just 38 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say Israel is "doing all it reasonably can" to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon, while 54 percent say it should do more. By contrast, in a June ABC/Post poll, 58 percent said the United States was doing all it could to avoid harming civilians in Iraq.
Despite the lack of widespread support for the Israeli actions, nearly six in 10 Americans primarily blame Hezbollah for causing Lebanese casualties by locating its rockets and fighters in civilian areas; just two in 10 say Israel's more to blame, for bombing those areas.
More generally, 32 percent say Israel has been using too much force in the current conflict, about as many as say it's using the right amount. Fewer, about two in 10, say it's not using enough force.
CEASE-FIRE – On a cease-fire, public sentiment is more with Israel. Fifty-five percent say it should agree to a cease-fire only if Hezbollah disarms first, a position taken last week by Israel and the United States alike. (A cease-fire plan at the United Nations faltered this weekend on Lebanese complaints that it didn't call for the withdrawal of Israeli forces.)
Ultimately, two-thirds support the creation of a U.N. peacekeeping force to separate the combatants. But among those who support a U.N. force, nearly six in 10 say the United States should not participate in it. In addition to the risks, this likely reflects public unease with the idea of placing U.S. forces under U.N. command.
In terms of direct U.S. interests, just over a third of Americans think the battle between Israel and Hezbollah will worsen the situation for the United States in Iraq. More, 54 percent, say it won't make much difference there. (George W. Bush gets mixed marks for handling the Israel-Hezbollah situation: 43 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove.)
Most, moreover, think it will come to naught for Israel: Just 21 percent think the conflict will end in a way that makes Israel more secure, while nearly three-quarters think Israel's security will be either unchanged, or worse than it was when the fighting began.
When fighting ends, Israel will be
More secure 21%
Less secure 13
About the same 60
GROUPS – Views on the conflict are strongly influenced by factors including political partisanship, ideology, race and religious preference. Republicans are substantially more supportive of Israel, Democrats less so. One reason is that support for Israel spikes among conservatives and evangelical white Protestants, core Republican groups. Overall, for instance, about six in 10 Republicans call the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in civilian areas justified, while six in 10 Democrats disagree. Independents split evenly on the question.
Republicans by more than a 4-1 margin blame Hezbollah more than Israel for Lebanese civilian casualties; Democrats blame Hezbollah as well, but by a much narrower margin, less than 2-1. And about seven in 10 Republicans say Israel should agree to a cease-fire only after Hezbollah disarms; just 48 percent of Democrats agree. Reluctance to contribute U.S. troops to a U.N. peacekeeping force, however, crosses partisan lines.
As noted, ideology plays a key role in partisan differences. Conservatives are twice as likely as liberals to call the Israeli bombing justified, much more likely to blame Hezbollah for Lebanese civilian deaths and more likely to say Israel should agree to a cease- fire only if Hezbollah disarms first.
Race and religion also are factors, with whites, especially white evangelical Protestants, particularly supportive of Israel.
Israel Blame Hezbollah
bombing justified for civilian casualties
All 47% 58%
Democrats 34 51
Republicans 62 70
Independents 48 58
Whites 52 62
Non-whites 30 45
Wh. evang. Prot. 57 69
Catholics 45 56
No religion 39 50
Liberals 28 48
Moderates 47 59
Conservatives 56 63
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone August 3-6, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer and Jon Cohen.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/ pollvault.html.