JOE LIEBERMAN'S CAMPAIGN IS JUST STARTING. Vital Signs by Ryan Lizza
Last night, Ned Lamont made the first mistake of his general election campaign against independent Democrat Joe Lieberman and token Republican Alan Schlesinger. Having won a historic primary victory against a well-financed, three-term senator and former popular, vote- winning vice-presidential candidate, Lamont should have used his victory speech last night to crush Lieberman. He should have emphasized that the voters decisively rejected Lieberman. He should have called for Lieberman to exit the race immediately. He should have consolidated his victory and raised the price of Lieberman's indie bid. He should have used his televised speech to land the death blow to Lieberman that his small margin of victory failed to deliver.
Instead, a reluctant Lamont meandered through a clipped version of his stump speech. He seemed to downplay the incredible win he had just achieved. It was a missed opportunity. After all, just minutes before, Lieberman, instead of giving a concession speech, launched his general election campaign. Lamont had--and may still have--a small window to shut that campaign down, but he is off to a bad start. The overall effect of the dueling speeches--with Lieberman ignoring the fact he lost and Lamont ignoring the fact he won--was to greatly diminish Lamont's victory. This bit of theater worked so well for Lieberman that, on an early morning edition of "Hardball," Chris Matthews treated Sean Smith, Lieberman's campaign manager, as if he had just scored a brilliant victory. "How did you guys close the gap?" Matthews asked, clearly impressed.
Like Lamont, senior Democrats are late in trying to stop Lieberman's indie bid. According to Senate sources, a decision was made by Lieberman's Democratic colleagues not to put any pressure on him yesterday to abandon his plan for a second round with Lamont. "They didn't want to stick a knife him tonight," says a top Senate Democratic strategist. "Throughout the day, the idea had been that, depending on what you want to happen, you can't box the guy in the corner," says another senior Democratic Senate aide. "I'm not aware that anyone approached him." Now, it's probably too late. Get ready for round two of Lieberman-Lamont.
Some Democratic Senators will endorse Lamont this morning, but don't expect much more than a press release. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has no intention of throwing any real money at Lamont. "This race will have zero bearing on who controls the Senate after Election Day in November," says a top Democrat involved in Senate campaign strategy. "Why would we spend money defending a seat that will be blue either way? It just takes funds from important seats like Montana. It's counterproductive to the cause." The message to Lamont? If you want the seat so bad, spend your own money: "The fact of the matter is that Lamont has seven million dollars he can draw on."
This is music to the Lieberman campaign's ears. It's counting on top Democrats to change the subject quickly. "A bunch of Democrats out of obligation will endorse Lamont, and then they will disappear," says a senior Lieberman aide. "They will nominally endorse him and then head for the hills."
He seems to be right. Washington Democrats aren't interested in fighting another round with Lieberman. They are eager to turn the conversation back to Bush. They downplay the national implications of the race and are eager to move on. "We'll put the focus back on Bush," says a senior Senate aide. "You know, 'The primary was a referendum on Bush, and so Republicans have a lot to fear.'" They also reject the idea that the primary changes the Iraq debate: "Our Iraq policy has been driven by [Harry] Reid and [Carl] Levin. To be honest, they could give a rat's ass about the blogs. In other words, these are policy-based decisions, and aren't driven by the politics of Connecticut or anywhere else."
That's why Lamont's primary victory won't mean all that much after all. Expectations are everything in politics, and Lamont's small margin of victory has failed to impress the commentariat, which was ready for a blowout after seeing Lamont's gaping thirteen-point lead last week. Meanwhile, Democrats are ready to turn their attention to the races that actually matter--the ones that will help them take back Congress. Similarly, the national press--consumed with the Connecticut race during the dead month of August--will now move on to other contests.
As a result, the Connecticut general election will turn into just another contest in a busy campaign season. After an inevitable bump in Democratic support for Lamont, the race is likely to narrow into a two-man race. If Senate Democrats like Colorado's Ken Salazar stick to their pledge to support Lieberman's indie bid, he will have more than enough cover to claim that the party isn't unified against him. Moreover, Lamont may find that the institutional support of his state's Democratic Party is not such a massive advantage. Connecticut Democrats haven't elected one of their own to the governor's mansion in 16 years.
Will money dry up for Lieberman? His campaign insists it isn't worried about raising cash. "It will probably be easier," says a senior Lieberman aide, perhaps a tad optimistically. "There's going to be a lot of people around the country who heard that appeal about being fed up with the politics of polarization and Washington. Also, there will be pro-Israel money, and the Jewish community will rally to his side in a big way. Raising money is the least difficult part of this challenge."
Asked if there's any chance the senator will abandon his run if influential friends like Senator Chris Dodd and Bill Clinton make personal pleas, the Lieberman aide says no way. "I'm sure Dodd will try to talk to him. But you saw him tonight. There is no walking back from this. He's made up his mind."
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Ryan Lizza is a senior editor at The New Republic.