The author presents the demographic, political and economic results of such a unified binational state as analogous to the ending of apartheid in S Africa. S. Africa has a white population of just barely 10 percent and a Black African population of almost 80 percent. A unified Israel-Falastin would be almost evenly split between Jews and non-Jews, the Jewish sector being far richer and more capable of generating an income than the non-Jews. But this is not all. The Palestinian Israelis would comprise about 25% of the non-Jewish population of this state and, given their well-demonstrated appreciation of the benefits of living in the only nearly democratic state in the Eastern Mediterranean, there is no reason to expect that they would have the same enthusiasm for deconstructing the organization and dispensing with the current leadership of the Israeli state as would their "country cousins" from across the border. There is also a considerable proportion of Non-Israeli Palestinians with considerable work and life experience in Israel and that would prefer to preserve the relative openness of Israeli society to the narrow restrictions of rural and semi-rural Palestine. This does not, of course, take into consideration the likely unification of Jewish and Palestinian elites that would follow upon the formation of a unified Palestinian state. For these, ethnicity and even religion take a second place to the business of establishing and preserving power and influence
The ultimate product of such a unification would be a shake down of the unified society into a hierarchy with a fairly small Jewish-Palestinian elite, a largely Jewish middle class with a fair to large representation of Israeli-Palestinians (about 20% of the Palestinian population), while most of the "country cousins" would form a large and mostly unemployable poor. While the large Black majority in S Africa has considerable clout in contemporary S Africa politics despite their poverty, the 37 to 38 percent of the population of the binational state, comprised of poor Palestinians would be a minority, easily disenfranchised by a combination of political and security supervision of their organized activities. It would, in fact, be very much like Lebanon with its 35% Shiah population, but with a powerful central government that could effectively prevent the development of a Hezbollah-like organization among the disenfranchised poor.
Some victory that would be!
Victor Friedlander-Rakocz victor at kfar-hanassi.org.il ----- Original Message ----- From: "Marvin Gandall" <marvgandall at videotron.ca> To: "LBO-Talk" <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Sent: Friday, August 11, 2006 23:16 Subject: [lbo-talk] Palestinians reviving one-state idea in desperation
> Another contradiction for Israel to deal with: the collapse of the
> Palestinian Authority. If it disappears, Israel has the responsibility
> under
> international law as the occupying power to administer and support the
> residents of the West Bank and Gaza . Israel, of course, has brought
> itself
> to this point through its refusal to deal with Hamas and its subsequent
> physical destruction of PA offices and other Palestinian infrastructure,
> arrest of government ministers, and witholding of transfer payments.
>
> Now Hamas leaders are threatening to make official what already exists on
> the ground: the formal dissolution of the PA. What logically follows from
> this is the concept of a single binational state which, according to the
> WSJ
> report below, is "gaining traction among Palestinians of many shades" -
> including Hamas militants. As the Journal notes, "the idea of dismantling
> the PA was once a marginal idea, championed in the 1990s by left-wing
> intellectuals such as Edward Said, who advocated civil disobedience
> against
> Israeli occupation and a campaign for 'one person, one vote'. The model
> was
> the antiapartheid protests in South Africa that paved the way for
> black-majority rule there."
>
> The irony is that any time interest in a binational state has manifested
> itself in the occupied territories, it turns Israel into a fierce champion
> of an "independent" Palestine because of racially-motivated demographic
> fears for the Jewish character of the Zionist state. Fatah has exploited
> these Israeli fears before to encourage it to negotiate around its program
> for a viable independent Palestinian state. Now Hamas, which is not
> programatically committed to a two-state solution, but whose trajectory is
> in that direction, seems to be employing the same tactic to pressure the
> Israelis into releasing funds to the PA and agreeing to negotiate the
> terms
> of its withdrawal. "Any breakdown in government could thwart Israeli Prime
> Minister Ehud Olmert's plan to withdraw unilaterally from large parts of
> the
> West Bank", the report observes.
>
> There is virtually no chance the Israelis would juridicially absorb the
> Palestinians into their own state, knowing they would immediately be
> confronted with an enormous Arab-Jewish anti-apartheid campaign along
> South
> African lines. That is why they built a wall to retreat behind,
> threatening
> to leave the immiserated Palestinians to fend for themselves in an
> enclosed
> unguarded prison until they finally capitulate to Israel's terms for a
> peace
> settlement.
> =========================================
>
> August 11, 2006
>
> Chaos Could Doom
> Palestinian Authority
>
> Leadership Void in Territories Would Put Onus Back on Israel, Thwart
> Withdrawal Plan
> By GUY CHAZAN
> Wall Street Journal
> August 11, 2006; Page A4
>
> RAMALLAH, West Bank -- Israel's war with Hezbollah has overshadowed a
> looming crisis in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, where conditions have
> deteriorated to the point that some in the Palestinian government are
> exploring the prospect of its self-dissolution.
>
> The economic and political breakdown has put new stresses on a population
> already racked by falling incomes and high unemployment. But the
> unraveling
> of the Palestinian Authority, starved of cash and with several of its
> ministers in Israeli jails, could have disastrous consequences for Israel
> as
> well: International law dictates that as an occupying force, it would have
> to take over full responsibility for the well-being of 3.9 million
> Palestinians.
>
> An aid freeze by donors, initiated when Hamas won January elections in
> Gaza,
> has left the PA virtually penniless. More than 150,000 public-sector
> workers
> have gone unpaid for the past five months, and some ministries have ceased
> to function.
>
> That has prompted an increasing number of Palestinians to call for the
> dismantling of the PA and a transfer of its powers back to Israel, which
> continues to occupy the West Bank and controls Gaza's borders despite last
> year's military pullout.
>
> Even Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has hinted at the idea.
> Following Israel's arrest of parliament speaker Abdel Aziz Dweik last
> weekend, Mr. Haniyeh on Wednesday said, "All political elites, the
> presidency, the factions and the government are invited to discuss the
> future of the Palestinian Authority following this...attack. Can [the PA]
> function under the occupation, kidnappings and assassination?"
>
> Established in 1994 under a peace deal with Israel, the PA was conceived
> of
> as an interim self-governing body and steppingstone to full statehood. But
> that prospect has receded since Hamas took control in March after a
> stunning
> election victory over rival Fatah, the party of Yasser Arafat that had
> dominated Palestinian politics up to that point.
>
> After Hamas, an Islamist organization with political, social-services and
> militant wings, won a dominant majority in January elections,
> international
> donors led by the U.S. -- which deems Hamas a terrorist organization --
> froze aid and demanded that the group recognize Israel, renounce violence
> and accept existing peace deals with Israel. So far, Hamas has refused.
>
> The idea of dismantling the PA was once a marginal idea, championed in the
> 1990s by left-wing intellectuals such as Edward Said, who advocated civil
> disobedience against Israeli occupation and a campaign for "one person,
> one
> vote." The model was the antiapartheid protests in South Africa that paved
> the way for black-majority rule there. Self-dissolution was also raised by
> Fatah supporters in the aftermath of their election defeat.
>
> But there also is now some support for the idea among Hamas activists, who
> in the past few months have become disillusioned by political power and
> may
> prefer to return to their armed struggle against Israel.
>
> Israel says it isn't its policy -- nor in its interest -- to see the PA go
> out of business. "Those that should disappear from the political arena are
> Hamas, not the PA," said government spokesman Avi Pazner.
>
> Any breakdown in government could also thwart Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
> Olmert's plan to withdraw unilaterally from large parts of the West Bank.
> "The existence of a political entity in the West Bank and Gaza is
> essential
> for Israel to achieve its objective of ending its control of the
> Palestinian
> population," said Gidi Grinstein, head of the Reut Institute, an Israeli
> think tank. "That's why dismantling the PA could severely compromise
> Israel's interests."
>
> Yet the idea is gaining traction among Palestinians of many shades. One is
> Hafez Barghouti, the influential editor in chief of the Palestinian
> newspaper Al-Hayat Al-Jadida. "We should just accept that we are under
> military rule," he said. "We should turn to civil disobedience, burn our
> ID
> cards and struggle until we get our rights."
>
> In recent months, there had been hopes of a lifeline to rescue the PA from
> its international isolation. In late June, Palestinian political factions
> reached an agreement to create a unity government that implied recognition
> of Israel by Hamas. The deal could have paved the way for a release of
> donor
> aid to the PA.
>
> But then the Israel-Hezbollah war broke out, knocking the Palestinian
> issue
> off all radar screens. "Lebanon has hijacked Palestine," says Mohammed
> Shtayye, the PA's former housing minister and the head of Pecdar, a big
> Ramallah-based aid and investment organization.
>
> The fighting in Lebanon has also largely eclipsed the continuing violence
> in
> Palestinian areas. Gaza has been reeling from an Israeli ground and air
> offensive unleashed after militants captured an Israeli soldier in a
> cross-border raid on June 25. The fighting has left more than 170
> Palestinians dead, more than half of them civilians. Even more disruptive
> was Israel's arrest in late June of 64 Hamas officials, including eight
> government ministers -- a third of the cabinet -- on charges of "belonging
> to a terrorist organization."
>
> Wasfi Izzat Kabaha, the PA prison-affairs minister and one of two Hamas
> officials released by the Israelis in the past few days, is trying to get
> his department back up and running after a monthlong stint behind bars.
> Every day brings new complications: He waves a letter from Mr. Haniyeh
> requesting that he take over the Labor portfolio, replacing the present
> labor minister, who remains in Israeli custody.
>
> His ministry used to disburse about $4.5 million in monthly allowances to
> the roughly 10,300 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails and their
> families. But for three months, it has had no budget. The ministry's civil
> servants and lawyers aren't being paid, either.
>
> "Will the PA collapse?" he asks. "I don't know. But if they don't
> recognize
> our rights and our government, then the situation can only get worse."
>
> The European Commission has tried to avert the collapse of essential
> services, allocating $135 million over three months under a "temporary
> mechanism" that bypasses the Hamas government. It includes "social
> allowances" for about 13,000 health workers and will be paid directly into
> their bank accounts. But considering the PA's basic wage bill is nearly
> $100
> million a month, it hardly solves the problem.
>
> Meanwhile, Israel still refuses to transfer the roughly $55 million a
> month
> of value-added tax and customs duties it collects on behalf of the PA --
> about half of the Palestinians' monthly budget.
>
> For Mr. Shtayye, the outlook for the PA is bleak. "The PA is not a
> supermarket which can just go bust and close down," he says. "But the
> people
> are saying if it can't protect the lives of its citizens, deliver services
> or pay salaries, then what's the point of it?"
>
>
>
>
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