In this issue: U.S. Politics 1) Clinton Rival Tries to Make Most of Liberal Anger 2) Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut Lebanon 3) Relief Agencies Find Hezbollah Hard to Avoid 4) Italy urges EU to join Lebanon UN force 5) Violence Tests Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire 6) Lebanon's Month-Old Oil Slick Sinks 7) Lebanese soldiers die clearing Israeli shells 8) What's in a Name? Not, It Seems, a Leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon 9) Israel accused over 'war crimes' - Amnesty Iran 10) Iran Sanctions Could Fracture Coalition 11) Iran Won't Give Promise to End Uranium Effort 12) U.S. Weighs Response to Iran Proposal 13) Russia, China Back Iran Calls for Talks 14) Iran Pushes For Talks Without Conditions 15) Bush Ensured Iran Offer Would Be Rejected 16) Trita Parsi and James Walsh on Iran's Response to the P5+1 Proposal Iraq 17) Poll Shows a Shift in Opinion on Iraq War 18) Marine Reservists Facing Combat Duty 19) Number of U.S. Troops in Iraq Climbs Afghanistan 20) Nation Faltering, Afghans' Leader Draws Criticism Israel-Palestine 21) Israel Delays West Bank Pullout
Contents: U.S. Politics 1) Clinton Rival Tries to Make Most of Liberal Anger Patrick Healy, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/nyregion/23challenger.html As Ned Lamont basks in Connecticut victory, another antiwar underdog is trying to assume the same role of political giant-killer in Sept. 12 elections in New York, against much bigger prey: Hillary Clinton. But Jonathan Tasini is struggling on a shoestring campaign to rise above his 12 percent standing in the polls, even as he hawks a message of anger over Iraq to an electorate that is more liberal than Connecticut's. Tasini's positions on the Iraq war, the death penalty and gay marriage are in step with the progressive groups and liberal bloggers that contributed volunteers, money and buzz to Lamont. Yet some of these partisans say they are deeply reluctant, and in some cases scared, to criticize or abandon Mrs. Clinton, who supported the invasion of Iraq. They cite her power in the Democratic Party and her careful positioning that has made her, if not antiwar, then a sharp critic of the administration's handling of Iraq, Hurricane Katrina and the economy. A former union leader, Tasini has stirred some enthusiasm among voters - even young women, who are the Clinton core - and he is increasingly well received by liberal audiences, based on interviews with voters and time spent watching him work crowds.
2) Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut American Research Group, August 22, 2006 http://americanresearchgroup.com/ctsenate/ Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.
Lebanon 3) Relief Agencies Find Hezbollah Hard to Avoid Robert F. Worth And Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23lebanon.html Like all international relief agencies here that receive financing from the US government, Mercy Corps is barred from giving money or aid through Hezbollah, which is labeled a terrorist organization by the US. But as with all the most demolished areas in southern Lebanon, where whole villages have been flattened by Israeli bombs and there is no food, water or electricity, this village is the domain of Hezbollah, and little seems to bypass the group. That fact is nettlesome for the US, not merely because it does not want Hezbollah to be strengthened even further after its war with Israel, but because it is eager to find and support a viable alternative to the group. That will not be easy. Hezbollah has been the fastest and, without a doubt, most effective organization doling out aid to the shattered towns and villages of southern Lebanon. Aid groups like Mercy Corps, which generally work through local intermediaries, have sometimes struggled to find other ways of helping, and even then, they cannot be sure their aid is not going through Hezbollah. "You can make a separation between what we do and Hezbollah," said Khiam's deputy mayor, Muhammed Abdullah, who is organizing the local efforts, including donations of food and water from Mercy. "But of course there is coordination." On his desk is a paperweight with the logo of "Construction Jihad," Hezbollah's building company, and in his anteroom are two posters of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader. Though Hezbollah is only one of many groups providing social services in Lebanon, its reputation for delivering those services honestly is unmatched, making it that much harder to circumvent.
4) Italy urges EU to join Lebanon UN force Mark John, Reuters, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; 11:12 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082300778.html Italy pressed fellow EU states Wednesday to support its pledge of troops by sending soldiers to join a U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. Rome has said it could provide as many as 3,000 troops of a European contingent of anything up to 9,000. The U.N. has authorized a force of 15,000 and is concerned that hostilities could reignite if deployment is delayed. French sources did not rule out further reinforcements being sent once the rules of engagement were set."We never said this was our last word," one French source said of their pledge of 200 troops. "We hope to get enough clarification to see how we can make further reinforcements." According to a U.N. document obtained by Reuters, new rules of engagement for the U.N. troops permit soldiers to shoot in self-defense, use force to protect civilians and resist armed attempts to interfere with their duties.
5) Violence Tests Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 12:05 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Lebanon-Israel.html Syria's president said he would consider the deployment of international troops along the Lebanon-Syria border a ''hostile'' move. Israel's foreign minister called the situation in Lebanon ''explosive'' and urged the international community to work quickly to deploy peacekeeping troops. Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora urged the US to help end Israel's sea and air blockade, and said his country was making ''every effort'' to secure its borders. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy renewed his calls for Israel to lift its air and sea blockade on Lebanon. ''If Lebanon is going to be reconstructed, if Lebanon is going to take off economically, the blockade must be lifted,'' he said. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said the blockade would continue until an international force was deployed, a process that would likely take weeks or months.
6) Lebanon's Month-Old Oil Slick Sinks Lauren Frayer, Associated Press, Wednesday, August 23, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-06.htm An oil slick caused by Israeli bombing has begun sinking to the floor of the Mediterranean, blanketing marine life with sludge, according to a Greenpeace video that shows dead fish along the sea bottom. The scuba diver's videotape, released Tuesday by Greenpeace, graphically details some of the environmental destruction a month after the oil spill began sinking, creating what has been called Lebanon's worst-ever environmental disaster. The U.N. has said the spill could take as long as a year to clean up and cost $64 million.
7) Lebanese soldiers die clearing Israeli shells Laila Bassam, Reuters, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; 11:14 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082300281.html Three Lebanese soldiers were killed Wednesday while clearing unexploded Israeli shells in southern Lebanon, underscoring the dangers of a region awaiting the deployment of thousands of U.N. peacekeepers. The three men were the first Lebanese troops to die since the army began moving south Thursday to bolster a U.N.-backed truce. If and when extra U.N. troops arrive, they will find a landscape littered with unexploded Israeli ordnance. A U.N. demining expert told Reuters Tuesday the Israelis had dropped cluster bombs on at least 170 sites in the south. An Israeli soldier was killed and three were wounded on Tuesday when they stepped on Israeli landmines in the south.
8) What's in a Name? Not, It Seems, a Leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon John Kifner, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23raid.html Hassan Nasrallah, the name of the leader of Hezbollah, is a pretty common name in Lebanon. There are 32 Hassan Nasrallahs in the telephone book. But that is the tip of the iceberg because the book lists only land lines, which hardly anyone in this cellphone-crazed country uses anymore. So perhaps it is not surprising that even Israel's elite commando unit became confused. It staged a raid on the Hezbollah stronghold in Baalbek in the early morning darkness of Aug. 2, killing at least 10 people and carrying off five suspected guerrillas captured in a house. But the house belonged to Hassan Nasrallah the plasterer rather than Hassan Nasrallah the Hezbollah leader. Israel released all five captives overnight.
9) Israel accused over 'war crimes' - Amnesty BBC News, Wednesday, 23 August 2006, 00:52 GMT 01:52 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5276626.stm Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing war crimes by deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in Lebanon. The human rights group says attacks on homes, bridges, roads and water and fuel plants were an "integral part" of Israel's strategy in the recent war. The group calls for a UN investigation into whether both Israel and Hezbollah broke humanitarian law. In a report released Wednesday, Amnesty International bases its accusations on an examination of Israeli attacks and comments made by Israeli officials during the conflict.
Iran 10) Iran Sanctions Could Fracture Coalition Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23diplo.html Iran's leaders did not agree to suspend enrichment of uranium, the central demand of the coalition. The question is whether Rice can keep the coalition together use sticks against Iran. The entire UN Security Council is supposed to vote on the sanctions package. While only permanent members can veto, the rising fear among European diplomats is that smaller countries on the Council are so angry over how the US and France have handled the Lebanon crisis that they will give Russia and China political cover to balk against imposing tough sanctions. "The Lebanese situation has caused a lot of bad faith and I think that will play into this," said one European diplomat. Russia and China have deep economic interests in Iran and dislike the blunt instrument of sanctions. And for the West, any sanctions levied that could actually hurt Iran - its energy sector - would ratchet up already high global oil prices. Bush administration officials have said Rice received assurances in June that Russia would, at a minimum, sign on to a first phase of weak sanctions if Iran refused to suspend uranium enrichment. Those sanctions would most likely include a ban on travel by Iranian officials and curbs on imports of nuclear-related technology. US officials portray their coalition as united. A senior Bush administration official said, "I don't think there's any question that there will be a resolution on sanctions." But the initial sanctions will undoubtedly be too weak to be effective, said some diplomats, who also predicted trouble if the US tried to prod Russia and China to take aim at Iran's energy sector. And if Iran has indeed held out the possibility of having talks about suspending uranium enrichment, as some reports indicated, that could further fracture the coalition. Smaller Council members are suffering from enforcement fatigue, analysts said, made worse by the specter of figuring out how to implement the Council's resolution calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon.
11) Iran Won't Give Promise to End Uranium Effort Michael Slackman, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html Tehran - Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University, said that if the proposal offers concrete details to ensure that Iran does not divert enriched uranium to a weapons program - steps like intrusive inspections and real-time monitoring of the nuclear facilities with cameras - it is possible that Iran will win some more support from Russia and China. Iran has already begun to brace for sanctions, calculating that an initial round would be relatively painless. But if the screws tighten, analysts here said, they expect the leadership to look for a face-saving compromise. Iran sits on some of the largest known oil reserves, but is forced to import more than 40 percent of its gasoline because it does not have the refinery capacity to meet its own needs. Sanctions that block gasoline imports would be extremely painful, analysts here said.
12) U.S. Weighs Response to Iran Proposal Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 11:09 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-Iran.html The Bush administration is taking its time responding to a mixed message from Iran that offers negotiations on its nuclear program but resists suspension of uranium enrichment. A White House spokeswoman said the Iranian response was getting careful consideration and review ''as it deserves.'' By not flatly rejecting the proposal the administration indicated there may be a basis for dealing with concerns that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The House Intelligence Committee issued a report that concluded Iran was a strategic threat and a country focused on developing nuclear weapons capability. The report also found gaps in the ability of U.S. intelligence agencies to keep up with developments in Iran's nuclear program and suggested hiring more intelligence agents who speak Farsi.
13) Russia, China Back Iran Calls for Talks Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 10:45 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html Iran urged Europe on Wednesday to pay attention to what it called ''positive'' signals in its counterproposal to a nuclear incentives package aimed at persuading Tehran to roll back its nuclear program. Russia and China backed Iran's call for negotiations to end the standoff. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said ''the door is still open'' for negotiations but only if Iran suspends uranium enrichment first, a step Tehran appears reluctant to agree to. The initial comments made clear the US is likely to face difficulty getting Russia and China to agree to any tough sanctions against Iran. Iran said Tuesday it was ready for ''serious negotiations'' on its nuclear program and cast its counterproposal as a new formula to resolve the crisis. The Iranian offer appeared aimed at enticing European countries and China and Russia into further negotiations by offering a broad set of proposals vague enough to hold out the hope of progress.
14) Iran Pushes For Talks Without Conditions U.N. Demand for Freeze On Nuclear Work Rejected Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082200367.html Iran offered yesterday to enter into immediate and "serious" negotiations on a broad range of issues with the Bush administration and its European allies but refused a U.N. Security Council demand to suspend work at nuclear facilities by the end of the month. Bush administration officials said they will need time to study the Iranian response, but vowed to press efforts to impose economic sanctions against Iran if it fails to meet the deadline to freeze its nuclear program. European officials were quieter, saying privately that they did not want to rush toward sanctions before the deadline. U.S. diplomats at the UN tried to organize a meeting today, but European officials said they have no plans to attend. The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, is expected to meet with Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, this week. The Iranian response comes at a difficult time, when Iran is feeling emboldened in the region and the Security Council is juggling a multitude of crises in the Middle East, including the Iraq war and recent fighting in southern Lebanon. The instability has made many council members wary of ratcheting up pressure on Iran, a major oil supplier, if it will mean further confrontation in the region. Privately, several officials said Iran was willing to consider halting its nuclear program, but not as a precondition for talks. One Iranian official said suspension could come quickly if talks can begin and Iran can get answers to a list of questions included in the offer yesterday. Several officials said Iran wants a clarification about security assurances, namely whether the Bush administration intended to negotiate on the nuclear issue while seeking to topple the country's religious leadership.
15) Bush Ensured Iran Offer Would Be Rejected Gareth Porter, Inter Press Service, Wednesday, August 23, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-03.htm Even before Iran gave its formal counter-offer to ambassadors of the P5+1 countries Tuesday, the Bush administration had already begun organising sanctions against Iran. Thus ends what appeared on the surface to be a genuine multilateral initiative for negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program. But the history of that P5+1 proposal shows that the Bush administration was determined from the beginning that it would fail, so that it could bring to a halt a multilateral diplomacy. Britain, France and Germany had concluded early on that Iran's security concerns would be central to any agreement. The Nov. 2004 agreement between the EU and Iran included an assurance that the "long-term agreement" they pledged to reach would "provide...firm commitments on security issues." The European three tried in vain to get the Bush administration to support their diplomatic efforts with Tehran by authorising the inclusion of security guarantees. The European three and the Bush administration agreed that the P5+1 proposal would demand that Iran make three concessions to avoid Security Council sanctions and to begin negotiations on an agreement with positive incentives: the indefinite suspension of its enrichment programme, agreement to resolve all the outstanding concerns of the IAEA, and resumption of full implementation of the Additional Protocol, which calls for very tight monitoring of all suspected nuclear sites by the IAEA. That meant that Tehran would have to give up its major bargaining chips before the negotiations even began. [Former UN chief weapons inspector Hans Blix made this same point yesterday in a BBC interview - JFP.]
16) Trita Parsi and James Walsh on Iran's Response to the P5+1 Proposal http://irannuclearwatch.blogspot.com/ http://www.freeconference.com/Recordings/ConferenceRecording-3239347-774599.mp3 On August 22, Iran formally responded with a 21 page memo to a proposal from the P5+1 seeking to resolve the dispute over the country's nuclear program. The above link contains an MP3 recording of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation's press conference with experts Dr. Trita Parsi and Dr. James Walsh.
Iraq 17) Poll Shows a Shift in Opinion on Iraq War Carl Hulse And Marjorie Connelly, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/washington/23poll.html Americans increasingly see the war in Iraq as distinct from the fight against terrorism, and nearly half believe President Bush has focused too much on Iraq to the exclusion of other threats, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. The poll found that 51 percent saw no link between the war in Iraq and the broader antiterror effort, a jump of 10 percentage points since June. The rising skepticism could present a political obstacle for Bush and his allies on Capitol Hill, who are making their record on terrorism a central element of the midterm election campaign. The Republicans hope that by expressing a desire for forceful action against terrorists, they can offset unease with the Iraq war and blunt the political appeal of Democratic calls to establish a timeline to withdraw American troops. Public sentiment about the war remains negative, threatening to erode a Republican advantage on national security. Fifty-three percent said going to war was a mistake, up from 48 percent in July; 62 percent said events were going "somewhat or very badly" in the effort to bring order and stability to Iraq. Voters in the poll indicated a strong preference for Democratic candidates this fall.
18) Marine Reservists Facing Combat Duty With Volunteers Lagging, as Many as 2,500 to Be Called Up for Afghanistan, Iraq Josh White, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082201080.html The Marine Corps is planning to call up as many as 2,500 Marine reservists for combat duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, dipping into a rarely used pool of troops to fill growing personnel gaps in units scheduled to deploy in coming months. It is the first time the Marines have resorted to involuntary call-ups since the initial invasion of Iraq in March 2003, when about 2,000 Marines were ordered into service for a short duration. It means thousands of Marines across the country who have left active service could soon be forced to return.
19) Number of U.S. Troops in Iraq Climbs Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press, Wednesday, August 23, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-01.htm The number of U.S. troops in Iraq has climbed back to 138,000, driven up in part by the need to control the escalating violence in Baghdad and the decision to delay the departure of an Alaska-based Army brigade.Troop levels in Iraq had been declining, from about 138,000 for much of last year to a low of about 127,000 earlier this summer, amid growing calls from Congress and the public for a phased withdrawal. Part of the latest increase is due to the overlap of units that are currently moving in and out of Iraq. But much of it comes from the decision late last month to delay the departure of the 172nd Stryker Brigade for four months. The brigade had served its one-year deployment and was beginning to head home to Alaska, but was instead ordered into Baghdad.
Afghanistan 20) Nation Faltering, Afghans' Leader Draws Criticism Carlotta Gall, New York Times, August 23, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/asia/23karzai.html After months of widespread frustration with corruption, the economy and a lack of justice and security, doubts about President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, and by extension the American effort to rebuild that nation, have led to a crisis of confidence. Interviews with ordinary Afghans, foreign diplomats and Afghan officials make it clear that the expanding Taliban insurgency represents the most serious challenge to his presidency to date. The insurgency and other issues have brought an eruption of doubts about Karzai, widely viewed as having failed to attend to a range of problems. Corruption is so widespread, the government apparently so lethargic and the divide between rich and poor so gaping that Karzai is losing public support, warn officials like Ahmad Fahim Hakim, deputy chairman of the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission. "Nothing that he promised has materialized," Hakim said, echoing the comments of diplomats and others in Kabul, the capital. "Beneath the surface, it is boiling."
Israel-Palestine 21) Israel Delays West Bank Pullout Doug Struck, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082201088.html The Israeli government's plan to dismantle some Jewish settlements in the West Bank and redraw the country's borders is being shelved at least temporarily, a casualty of the war in Lebanon, government officials said. The plan, which propelled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to victory in March elections and was warmly endorsed by President Bush as a way of solving Israel's conflict with the Palestinians, is no longer a top priority, Olmert told his ministers last weekend. Instead, the government must spend its money and efforts in northern Israel to repair the damage from the war and strengthen the area in case fighting breaks out again, Olmert said. Even without the financial considerations, the plan for unilateral withdrawal from some settlements is dead, other political figures and analysts said. The seizure of Israeli soldiers and the renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip - from which Israel withdrew last year - and in southern Lebanon -from which Israel withdrew in 2000 - have left the Israeli public with little appetite for additional pullouts. "It's not operative or realistically possible today," said Dan Schueftan, deputy director of national security studies at the University of Haifa and a proponent of the plan. But he predicted that "inevitably, we will have to come back to it."
-------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org