In this issue: Iran 1) Some in G.O.P. Say Iran Threat Is Played Down 2) U.S. Spy Agencies Criticized on Iran 3) U.S. Says Iranian Nuclear Proposal Is Inadequate Iraq 4) Is the Next Step a Draft? 5) Bush's Iraq Argument: It Could Be Worse 6) Marine Called Haditha Shootings Appropriate 7) Six Questions for Michael Scheuer on National Security Lebanon 8) Human Rights Group Accuses Israel of War Crimes 9) France to Send More Troops to Lebanon, Minister Says 10) Lebanese Premier Seeks U.S. Help in Lifting Blockade: Israeli Restrictions Impede Commerce 11) Negotiations Preceded Attack On Convoy of Fleeing Lebanese Israel 12) Good Morning, Elijahu! Palestine 13) Reporters' Kidnappers Denounced in Gaza Mexico 14) Violent Civil Unrest Tightens Hold on a Mexican City
Contents: Iran 1) Some in G.O.P. Say Iran Threat Is Played Down Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, August 24, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/washington/24intel.html Some senior Bush administration officials and top Republican lawmakers are voicing anger that American spy agencies have not issued more ominous warnings about the threats Iran presents to the US. Some have accused intelligence agencies of playing down Iran's role in Hezbollah's recent attacks against Israel and overestimating the time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon. The complaints surfaced in a Congressional report released Wednesday. They echo tensions that divided the administration and the CIA before the war in Iraq. The criticisms reflect the views of officials in the White House and the Pentagon who advocated war with Iraq and now are pressing for confronting Iran directly over its nuclear program and ties to terrorism. The dissonance is surfacing as the intelligence agencies are overhauling procedures to prevent a repeat of the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate, the faulty assessment that in part set the US on the path to war with Iraq. Several intelligence officials said that American spy agencies had made assessments in recent weeks that despite established ties between Iran and Hezbollah and a well-documented history of Iran arming the organization, there was no credible evidence to suggest either that Iran ordered the Hezbollah raid that touched off the recent fighting or that Iran was directly controlling attacks against Israel. "There are no provable signs of Iranian direction on the ground," said one intelligence official. "Nobody should think that Hezbollah is a remote-controlled entity." American military assessments have broadly echoed this view. (The report: http://intelligence.house.gov/media/pdfs/iranreport082206v2.pdf.)
2) U.S. Spy Agencies Criticized on Iran GOP-Led Panel Faults Intelligence Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301309.html A key House committee issued a stinging critique of U.S. intelligence on Iran yesterday, charging that the CIA and other agencies lack "the ability to acquire essential information necessary to make judgments" on Tehran's nuclear program, its intentions or even its ties to terrorism. The 29-page report, principally written by a Republican staff member on the House intelligence committee who holds a hard-line view on Iran, fully backs the White House position that the Islamic republic is moving forward with a nuclear weapons program and that it poses a significant danger to the United States. But it chides the intelligence community for not providing enough direct evidence to support that assertion. The report relies exclusively on publicly available documents. Its authors did not interview intelligence officials. Still, it warns the intelligence community to avoid the mistakes made regarding weapons of mass destruction before the Iraq war, noting that Iran could easily be engaged in "a denial and deception campaign to exaggerate progress on its nuclear program as Saddam Hussein apparently did concerning his WMD programs." "We want to avoid another 'slam dunk,' " Rep. Peter Hoekstra said yesterday, explaining why the staff report was made public before it had been approved by the full committee. Former CIA director George Tenet had called prewar intelligence on banned weapons a "slam dunk," but no such arms were ever found.
3) U.S. Says Iranian Nuclear Proposal Is Inadequate Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 24, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24diplo.html The US, in its first formal reaction after Iran's counteroffer to an incentives proposal to quit its nuclear program, said Iran's position "falls short" of UN demands. A State Department statement said the US was "consulting closely" with members of the UN Security Council over next steps. "We acknowledge that Iran considers its response as a serious offer, and we will review it," said the statement. Bush administration officials are pushing their European, Russian and Chinese counterparts to impose sanctions on Iran at the end of the month, after a Security Council deadline for Iran to suspend enrichment expires. But Russia and China, which have deep economic ties with Iran, have resisted any move to penalize the country severely. On Wednesday, those two countries again urged the Europeans and Americans to respond with caution.
Iraq 4) Is the Next Step a Draft? http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2006/08/is_the_next_ste.html An Iraq veterans group says the call-up of thousands of Marines from the Individual Ready Reserve is "one of the last steps before resorting to a draft." "This move should serve as a wake-up call to America," said Jon Soltz, who was an Army captain in Iraq and heads the group VoteVets.org, which raises funds for Iraq and Afghanistan veterans running for Congress. "Today's announcement that thousands of Marines in the Individual Ready Reserve will be called back to go to Iraq is proof that our military is overextended, and there is no plan for victory in Iraq." While the Pentagon has maintained the armed forces have met recruiting and retention goals, Soltz says, "Today's actions speak louder than words." The IRR are reservists, who have returned to civilian life, don't drill regularly and prior to the Iraq war were rarely called to active duty.
5) Bush's Iraq Argument: It Could Be Worse Peter Baker, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301878.html For three years, the president tried to reassure Americans that more progress was being made in Iraq than they realized. But with Iraq either in civil war or on the brink of it, Bush dropped the unseen-progress argument in favor of the contention that things could be even worse. The shifting rhetoric reflected a broader pessimism that has reached into even some of the most optimistic corners of the administration -- a sense that the Iraq venture has taken a dark turn and will not be resolved anytime soon. Bush advisers once believed that if they met certain benchmarks, such as building a constitutional democracy and training a new Iraqi army, the war would be won. Now they believe they have more or less met those goals, yet the war rages on. While still committed to the venture, officials have privately told friends and associates outside government that they have grown discouraged in recent months. But with crucial midterm elections just 2 1/2 months away, Bush and his team are trying to turn the public debate away from whether the Iraq invasion has worked out to what would happen if U.S. troops were withdrawn, as some Democrats advocate. Christopher Gelpi, a Duke University scholar whose research on public opinion in wartime has been influential in the White House, said Bush has little choice. "He looks foolish and not credible if he says, 'We're making progress in Iraq,' " Gelpi said. "I think he probably would like to make that argument, but because that's not credible given the facts on the ground, this is the fallback. . . . If the only thing you can say is 'Yes, it's bad, but it could be worse,' that really is a last-ditch argument."
6) Marine Called Haditha Shootings Appropriate Josh White, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A17 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301829.html A sergeant who examined the scene hours after Marines killed two dozen Iraqis in Haditha last year said the shootings appeared to be an appropriate response to a coordinated insurgent attack, according to a sworn statement obtained by The Washington Post. Sgt. J.M. Laughner went from house to house in Haditha on Nov. 19, 2005, and acknowledged finding two dozen bodies, including some of women and small children. But Laughner said the scenes of the slayings appeared to match the version of events the Marine squad provided that day and did not seem especially out of the ordinary, according to a transcript of Laughner's interview with military investigators in March. Laughner's account supports the argument made by some Marines in Kilo Company, 3rd Battalion, 1st Marines -- that they believed they were following their rules of engagement when they opened fire on groups of people inside at least three homes after a roadside bomb killed a member of their unit.
7) Six Questions for Michael Scheuer on National Security Ken Silverstein, Harpers.org, Wednesday, August 23, 2006 http://harpers.org/sb-seven-michael-scheuer-1156277744.html Michael Scheuer served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in 2004; he served as the chief of the bin Laden unit at the Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999. 1: Is the country safer or more vulnerable to terrorism? MS: More vulnerable. 2: Is Al Qaeda stronger or weaker than it was five years ago? MS: The quality of its leadership is not as high, because we've killed and captured so many. But they have succession planning that works very well. 3: Why hasn't there been an attack on the US for the past five years? MS: They're not ready. They put more emphasis on success than speed, and the next attack has to be bigger than 9/11. They could shoot up a mall if that's what they wanted to do. But the world is going their way. We've lost some 3,000 soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. We've spent billions on those wars. There are more people willing to take up arms against the United States; we have less ability to win hearts and minds in the Arab world. If you're bin Laden, those things are part of the war and those things are going your way. 4: Has the war in Iraq helped or hurt in the fight against terrorism? MS: It broke the back of our counterterrorism program. Iraq was the perfect execution of a war that demanded jihad to oppose it. You had an infidel power invading and occupying a Muslim country and it was perceived to be unprovoked. The war has validated everything bin Laden said: the US will destroy any strong government in the Arab world, it will occupy Muslim holy places, it will seize Arab oil. Al Qaeda has said that it requires safe havens: it couldn't get involved with large numbers in the Balkans war because it had no safe haven in the region. Now they have a safe haven in Iraq, which is so big and is going to be so unsettled for so long. 5. Things seemed to have turned for the worse in Afghanistan. MS: The President was sold a bill of goods by George Tenet and the CIA: a few dozen intel guys, a few hundred Special Forces, and truckloads of money could win the day. In the end, we'll lose and leave. The idea that we can control Afghanistan with 22,000 soldiers, most of whom are indifferent to the task, is far-fetched. The Soviets couldn't do it with 150,000 soldiers and utter brutality. 6. Has the war in Lebanon also been a plus for the jihadists? MS: Yes. The Israel-Hezbollah battle validates bin Laden. It showed that the Arab regimes can't protect their own nationals. It also showed that the Americans will let Israel do whatever it wants. 7. What needs to be done? MS: We need to acknowledge that we are at war, not because of who we are, but because of what we do. We have a dozen years of reliable polling in the Middle East, and it shows overwhelming hostility to our policies, and at the same time it shows majorities that admire the way we live, our ability to feed and clothe our children and find work. We need to tell the truth to set the stage for a discussion of our foreign policy. We need to create a situation where moderate Muslims can express support for the US without being laughed off the block.
Lebanon 8) Human Rights Group Accuses Israel of War Crimes http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24lebanon.html John Kifner, New York Times, August 24, 2006 Amnesty International accused Israel on Wednesday of war crimes in its monthlong war in Lebanon, saying its bombing campaign amounted to indiscriminate attacks on Lebanon's civilian infrastructure and population. "Many of the violations examined in this report are war crimes that give rise to individual criminal responsibility," Amnesty said in its report. "They include directly attacking civilian objects and carrying out indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks." "During more than four weeks of ground and aerial bombardment by the Israeli armed forces, the country's infrastructure suffered destruction on a catastrophic scale," the report said, contending this was "an integral part of the military strategy."
9) France to Send More Troops to Lebanon, Minister Says Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 24, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24force.html France told Israel Wednesday it would increase its commitment of troops to a multinational peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon in the coming days, as Syria warned that the positioning of a multinational force near its border would be seen as a "hostile position." The French foreign minister said that French president Chirac would announce a larger troop commitment as early as Friday. Last week, the UN circulated proposed rules of engagement that would allow the troops to use "deadly force" in self-defense, while protecting civilians or in support of the Lebanese Army's efforts to keep arms from entering Lebanon from Syria. Some Europeans worry those rules could draw the force into the conflict by aligning it with Israel, which wants the force to police Lebanon's border with Syria, the route by which most of Hezbollah's weapons have been delivered in the past. Israel has said that it will not lift its blockade until the multinational force has been deployed at Lebanon's airports and along the Syrian border. Lebanon regards the continuing blockade as a violation of the cease-fire agreement.
10) Lebanese Premier Seeks U.S. Help in Lifting Blockade: Israeli Restrictions Impede Commerce Edward Cody, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A14 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301671.html Prime Minister Siniora said Wednesday he has asked the US for help in getting Israel to lift the blockade it imposed on Lebanon Siniora's appeal reflected growing irritation among Lebanese leaders at continued restrictions under which the Israeli military controls all air and sea transport in and out of the country despite the U.N. cease-fire. The blockade has been particularly painful for Lebanon, whose economy depends on the free movement of people and goods. Only a few commercial flights have been permitted to resume from Beirut's international airport, damaged during the war but now repaired and ready to resume its role as a Middle East hub. Similarly, the once-busy Beirut port has been kept under strict controls enforced by Israeli gunships in the Mediterranean. Dramatizing the anger here, Labor Minister Tarrad Hamadeh of the Hezbollah party suggested Tuesday that Arab governments should send their planes and ships toward Lebanon in defiance of the Israeli blockade. His suggestion was not taken seriously, but the resentment it portrayed is widely shared in Siniora's government. Siniora said the US has the power to help Lebanon get normal transportation going again and suggested the Bush administration was not providing all the assistance Lebanon needs.
11) Negotiations Preceded Attack On Convoy of Fleeing Lebanese Israeli Military Places Blame for Killings on U.N. Force Edward Cody, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A14 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301809.html "I could never have imagined that there could be an attack on this convoy of 3,000 civilians, men, women and children," said Karamallah Daher. But the attack was underway. Before it was over, a half-dozen missiles had been fired and seven people were killed, including a retreating Lebanese soldier, a Red Cross volunteer and five other civilians, and 36 people had been wounded. The Israeli military issued a statement the next morning saying the column was attacked because of suspicions -- which the military later acknowledged were baseless -- that the cars were smuggling arms for Hezbollah fighters. The military said it had received a request for safe passage for the convoy from the UN but that it had been turned down. Milos Stugar, spokesman for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, said that the request was granted. His statement was confirmed Wednesday by Gen. Alain Pelligrini, the UNIFIL commander, who said: "We had a green light." In response to questions from The Washington Post, the Israeli military put responsibility for the killings on UNIFIL, saying U.N. officials ignored Israeli orders to prevent the column from moving. The military "suspected that the vehicles were either returning from a weapons delivery to Hezbollah terrorists in the south or were fleeing from IDF forces with their weapons," the statement added. It did not address the questions of what led the Israeli military to believe the cars were carrying weapons or how, if a request for safe passage had come from the UN, the Israeli military could believe it was seeing a Hezbollah convoy.
Israel 12) Good Morning, Elijahu! Uri Avnery, Gush Shalom, 23-08-2006 http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1156357376 For decades I have warned again and again that the occupation is corrupting our army. Now the papers are full of learned articles by respected commentators, who have discovered - surprise! surprise! - that the occupation has corrupted our army. In such cases we say in Hebrew: "Good morning, Elijahu!" You have woken up at long last.
Palestine 13) Reporters' Kidnappers Denounced in Gaza Associated Press, August 24, 2006, Filed at 12:19 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Gaza-Journalists.html Palestinian officials on Thursday denounced a militant group that has demanded the release of all Muslims imprisoned by the US in exchange for two kidnapped Fox journalists. Khaled Abu Hilal, a spokesman for the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, said the kidnapping of Fox correspondent Steve Centanni, of Washington, D.C., and cameraman Olaf Wiig, of New Zealand, was harming Palestinian interests. ''We were shocked at their demands because we don't need a new door of hostility opened with the U.S.,'' he said. The kidnappers released a video Wednesday showing Centanni and Wiig. The journalists said they were being treated well, and Wiig called for those working on his behalf to exert pressure on the Palestinian authorities. In a statement attached to the video, a previously unknown group calling itself the Holy Jihad Brigades railed against the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and characterized them as a war against Islam. It made no demands of Israel. The kidnappers of Centanni and Wiig demanded that Muslim prisoners in U.S. jails be released within three days in exchange for the hostages. Wiig's wife, Anita McNaught, said Thursday that seeing her husband in the video ''was a source of great relief and comfort.'' Appealing to the kidnappers, she said: ''I don't question that you, who are holding them, have suffered greatly as everyone in Gaza and the Palestinian territories is suffering, but these two men are not responsible for the injustices that you speak of.'' The video marked the first time militants in Gaza have issued demands beyond the conflict with Israel. The footage had none of the trappings of locally produced videos, raising the possibility that foreign extremists may have taken root in Gaza. Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh suggested the kidnappers had no ties to any of the Palestinian militant groups. ''The Palestinian factions are well known,'' he said after a meeting with Wiig's wife. ''They work ... according to a Palestinian agenda. Their struggle is with occupation of Palestinian lands.''
Mexico 14) Violent Civil Unrest Tightens Hold on a Mexican City James C. McKinley Jr., New York Times, August 24, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/americas/24mexico.html For three months, civil unrest has gripped Oaxaca, leaving two people dead, crippling the tourist industry and shuttering schools. The original cause of the strife, a teachers' strike for better pay, has become lost in the escalating violence and the demands of the protesters, who now insist that Gov. Ulises Ruiz step down. The teachers' union has been joined by scores of social organizations. They have shut highways, taken over five radio stations, blocked off the city's historic square, seized government offices, and barricaded tourists in their hotels. The state government has lost control of the center of the city, including its own offices, and is working out of improvised quarters with cellphones. Though each side has asked for federal intervention, President Fox has refused to send in troops. He has dispatched negotiators from the Interior and Labor Ministries, who have been unsuccessful in resolving the conflict. Early Tuesday, police officers in a convoy that had been sent to clear blocked streets opened fire on a radio station that protesters had seized. An architect who worked for the state was killed. The protesters seized about a dozen radio stations on Monday afternoon after unidentified gunmen destroyed the broadcasting equipment of Channel 9, a public station the strikers and their allies commandeered early this month to spread their version of events. The state attorney general said someone had fired at the officers from roofs near the station, starting the gunfight. But witnesses said the police had opened fire twice without provocation. "They are the ones who brought arms, and we had nothing but rocks," said one teacher. "Ruiz talks out of both sides of his mouth. On the television he calls on us to negotiate. But in the streets at night, he tries to kill us." On Aug. 10, the husband of a teacher was shot and killed during a march to support the strike. A spokesman for Governor Ruiz said the state lacks the money to meet the teachers' salary demands. The teachers had asked for a pay package that would have cost $150 million, while the state's final offer in June was about $8.5 million. The teachers also have asked for improvements, including new books and more classrooms, for a state school system that serves hundreds of thousands of students. Ruiz's aides acknowledged that the government made an enormous error on June 14 when it used force, angering many teachers who were used to an annual strike and a resulting pay increase. The city's once-prosperous tourism industry is gasping for air. More than 1,000 hotel workers have been laid off, and tourists have canceled reservations well into 2007. The hotel and motel association estimates that the industry has lost $150 million in the last three months. [Note that this sum would have paid for the strikers' economic demands -JFP.] "No one has won anything here," said the president of the association. The federal government must intervene, he said, adding, "We are desperate."
-------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org