[lbo-talk] Iran's War Games and Diplomacy

Yoshie Furuhashi critical.montages at gmail.com
Sun Aug 27 11:13:39 PDT 2006


You've heard of Iran's test-firing of new submarine-to-surface missiles. According to Bloomberg, "[a]bout 17 million barrels a day of oil, or 20 percent of the world's consumption, flows from the Persian Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea route through which oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other oil producing countries can be transported" (Trisha Huang and Gavin Evans, "Crude Oil Trades Near Four-Day High as Iran Defies UN Demand," 22 August 2006, <http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=165>). Tehran needs to make sure that everyone in the world understands that it can disrupt the oil supply shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Add it to the war games practicing a new asymmetric warfare doctrine (cf. <http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20060821/044588.html>), and that's as good a message Tehran can send to the rest of the world, in addition to being actual military preparation.

<blockquote><http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/27/iran.missile.reut/> Iran test fires long-range missile

TEHRAN, Iran (Reuters) -- Iran test fired a long-range, radar-evading missile on Sunday from a submarine in the Gulf as part of war games that began earlier this month, state television reported.

The missile was called Sagheb, which means Piercing, but the report did not give the missile's range.

"Minutes ago it was launched from a submarine in the Persian Gulf and it hit the target," television reported.

Western nations have been watching developments in Iran's missile capabilities with concern amid a standoff over the country's nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building atomic bombs. Iran says the program is only civilian.

Iran's military also held war games in the Gulf in April. Those exercises were interpreted by analysts as a thinly veiled threat that Iran could disrupt vital oil shipping lanes if pushed by an escalation in the nuclear dispute.

A navy admiral, named only as Kouchaki, told state television the missile had been designed and produced in Iran.

"It can be installed and launched by Iran's navy. It is a long-range missile, with a very high speed and destructive power. It is also radar evading," he said.

The Islamic Republic has three aging Kilo class diesel-electric Russian submarines and also builds midget submarines. The Sagheb is listed as an air defense missile by the Nuclear Threat Initiative Web site (www.nti.org).

Military analysts say Iran often exaggerates its abilities, They argue that its military equipment is outmoded and that new missiles Iran claims to have produced are often modified versions from other countries such as North Korea.

But they also say Iranian forces could, if pushed, cause havoc in shipping lanes in the Gulf, even if they would be no match in any conventional confrontation with the high-tech forces of the U.S. and other navies operating in the area.</blockquote>

<blockquote><http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20060827-0652-iran-missile.html> Iran test-fires a new submarine-to-surface missile in Persian Gulf By Ali Akbar Dareini ASSOCIATED PRESS 6:52 a.m. August 27, 2006

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran test fired a new submarine-to-surface missile during war games in the Persian Gulf on Sunday, a show of military might amid a standoff with the West over its nuclear activities.

A brief video clip showed the long-range missile, called Thaqeb, or Saturn, exiting the water and hitting a target on the water's surface within less than a mile. The test came as part of large-scale military exercises that began Aug. 19.

"The army successfully test fired a top speed long-range sub-to-surface missile off the Persian Gulf," the navy commander, Gen. Sajjad Kouchaki, said on state-run television.

Iran routinely has held war games over the past two decades to improve its combat readiness and to test equipment including missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers.

But Sunday's firing of the missile came as Iran remains defiant just five days before a deadline imposed by the U.N. Security Council for Tehran to suspend the enrichment of uranium, which can produce both reactor fuel and material usable in nuclear warheads.

Iran said last week it is open to negotiations but it refused any immediate suspension, calling the deadline illegal.

Tehran has expressed worry about Israeli threats to destroy its nuclear facilities, which the West contends could be used to make a bomb but which Iran insists are for the peaceful purpose of generating electricity. The Islamic country also is concerned about the U.S. military presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan.

In an advance for Iran's weapons industry, the Thaqeb is the country's first sub-fired missile that leaves the water to strike its target, adding to the country's repertoire of weapons that can hit ships in the Gulf.

Iran's current arsenal includes several types of torpedoes – including the "Hoot," Farsi for "whale," which was tested for the first time in April, capable of moving at some 223 mph, up to four times faster than a normal torpedo.

Kouchaki said the Thaqeb could be fired from any vessel and could escape enemy radar. He said it was built based on domestic know-how, although outside experts say much of the country's missile technology originated from other countries like Russia and China.

He did not give the weapon's range. It did not appear capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

Iran already is equipped with the Shahab-3 missile, which means "shooting star" in Farsi, and is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. An upgraded version of the ballistic missile has a range of more than 1,200 miles and can reach Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Last year, former Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said Tehran successfully had tested a solid fuel motor for the Shahab-3, which was considered a technological breakthrough for the country's military.

Solid fuel dramatically increases the accuracy of a missile while a liquid fuel missile is not very accurate in hitting targets.

Iran's military test-fired a series of missiles during large-scale war games in the Persian Gulf in March and April, including a missile it claimed was not detectable by radar and can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously.

After decades of relying on foreign weapons purchases, Iran's military has been working to boost its domestic production of armaments.

Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane, the government has said. It announced in early 2005 that it had begun production of torpedoes.</blockquote>

Tehran has thoughtfully combined the military message with diplomacy (centering on retaining the protection of Moscow and Beijing, support of the NAM, the OAS, Latin socialist leaders, etc., and so on, and sending Khatami to the USA [see <http://www.livingchurch.org/publishertlc/viewarticle.asp?ID=2443> and <http://www.payvand.com/news/06/aug/1283.html>]).

All in all, the Iranian leaders are very smart people, and they have played their cards, while the oil prices are high and Washington is stuck in Iraq, as well as they can.

All Iranians understand that a hard bargain Tehran has driven under the Ahmadinejad administration has so far paid off better than what the Khatami administration managed to extract from the Europeans:

<blockquote>[D]espite Iran's leverage on the international energy market, current vogue on the Arab street and capacity to wreak havoc in Iraq and the Middle East at large via the Shi'ite militia alliance of Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas and Syria, analysts say Iran wants to avoid an open conflict. Instead, Tehran "thinks [it] has a strong hand and wants to push for the maximum" in its nuclear negotiations, Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Asia Times Online. "The West responds better to an intransigent Iran."

Nasr noted that Iran has internalized the rewards of its experience in driving a hard bargain. Under former president Mohammad Khatami, a leader far more conciliatory than Ahmadinejad, the European Union-3 (Britain, France and Germany) offered a less generous incentives package predicated on a guaranteed supply of fuel for civilian reactors provided they were under full supervision of the UN nuclear watchdog. In June, after years of cat-and-mouse with the West, six industrial powers extended a sweeter offer, with further trade advantages and security guarantees, to a radical president with messianic tendencies who has hinted at the destruction of Israel. (Jason Motlagh, "Iran's 'Crisis' of Overconfidence," 26 August 2006, <http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH26Ak02.html>)</blockquote>

I dearly hope that Moscow and Beijing will stay the course and continue to block sanctions. -- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>



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