> Hey Marvin - I have to disagree.
[...]
> If they could have obtained Nasrallah's head, they would have,
> irrespective of the
> consequences.
==================================
But that's my point, Joel. I have to assume if YOU knew this was where
Nasrallah and al-Manar were from "various sources", then - unless it is a
fabrication - all of these sources are ultimately traceable back to Israeli
intelligence.
So the Israeli leadership would have known too.
But Jim suggested that the Israelis were afraid of the consequences of a war with Iran, to which you expressed your concurrence, and then went on to say that they would have "obtained Nasrallah's head", if they could have, "irrespective of the consequences". You'll forgive me for thinking you've contradicted yourself.
I really don't know how much Israel wants or does not want a conventional war with Iran and/or Syria, which they're much better equipped to fight than an irregular conflict with Hezbollah.
But I don't believe in nay case that the Iranians would have taken the bait and used the incident to do anything other than perhaps fire a few longer-range missiles at Israel, and likely from south Lebanon through Hezbollah. If they wanted to engage Israel militarily, they and/or Syria could have done so when the Israelis launched their assault.
Incidentally, I don't believe leaders are "stupid" (ok, I will make an exception for Bush) although they do miscalculate. Olmert, Peretz, and Halutz, as we know, miscalculated badly.
> On Aug 27, 2006, at 1:23 PM, Marvin Gandall wrote:
>
>> Joel Schalit wrote:
>>
>>> I hear tell from various sources that Al-Manar had a backup studio
>>> operating out of the Iranian embassy in Beirut, which is where
>>> Nasrallah is
>>> alleged to have sat out the war. One can understand why the Israelis
>>> would
>>> not target said building.
>> ==============================
>> It's not quite as self-evident to me, Joel, why the Israelis would balk
>> at
>> doing so. There's a whole body of opinion which thinks Israel is just
>> itching to have a go at Iran, and if Israeli intelligence knew this was
>> where Nasrallah and Al-Manar were holed up, and blew up the place,
>> wouldn't
>> this have restored domestic and international credibility to Israel's
>> military prowess, which took an incredible beating during the war? For
>> sure,
>> the effect on its morale and on that of its enemies would have been
>> different than Qana, at any rate.
>>
>> Even assuming Israel wouldn't have wanted to incite a wider war over it,
>> I
>> doubt the Iranians would have been provoked to start one either. What
>> reprisals could they, in fact, have taken which would have outweighed
>> the
>> value of the strike to the Israelis - closing the Hormuz strait
>> (unlikely)?
>> Some missiles hitting Tel Aviv? As for making Nasrallah a martyr, he
>> couldn't be more popular than he is now anyway.
>>
>>
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