Saturday, December 02, 2006
International
Saudi Arabia weighs new options in Baghdad http://www.asianage.com/presentation/leftnavigation/news/international/saudi-arabia-weighs-new-options-in-baghdad.aspx
By Siraj Wahab
Jeddah, Dec. 1: What will Saudi Arabia do in the event of a US withdrawal from Iraq? Nobody has any clear idea but if one were to go by comments from Mr Nawaf Obaid, a maverick Saudi analyst who is well-known to policymakers in Riyadh, "there will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shia militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis".
In a carefully-worded Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post on Wednesday, Mr Obaid, who is managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project in Riyadh and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq could result in Saudi Arabia opening the gates to provide Iraq's Sunnis funds, arms and logistical support to counter Iran's support for Iraqi Shia fighters.
"As the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, the birthplace of Islam and the de facto leader of the world's Sunni community (which comprises 85 per cent of all Muslims), Saudi Arabia has both the means and the religious responsibility to intervene (in Iraq)," Mr Obaid wrote in the piece which had the customary disclaimer at the end that made it clear that the opinions expressed in the article were Mr Obaid's own and did not reflect official Saudi policy.
Mr Obaid recalled Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal's warning to US President George W. Bush in February 2003, a month before the US-led invasion of Iraq: "'You would be solving one problem and creating five more if you remove Saddam Hussein by force.'
Had Bush heeded Prince Saud's advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of a full-blown civil war and disintegration."
Mr Obaid hoped Mr Bush would not commit the same mistake again by ignoring the advice of Saudi ambassador to the US Prince Turki Al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited. "If it does," Mr Obaid writes, "one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shia militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis."
According to Mr Obaid, a chorus of voices has called for Saudi Arabia to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and thwart Iranian influence there. "Senior Iraqi tribal and religious figures, along with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries, have petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support. Moreover, domestic pressure to intervene is intense. Major Saudi tribal confederations, which have extremely close historical and communal ties with their counterparts in Iraq, are demanding action."
If Mr Obaid is to be believed, all these requests for Saudi intervention have been refused "because Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz has been working to minimise sectarian tensions in Iraq and reconcile Sunni and Shia communities and because he gave President Bush his word that he wouldn't meddle in Iraq and because it would be impossible to ensure that Saudi-funded militias wouldn't attack US troops."
But "if American troops begin a phased withdrawal from Iraq, those requests will be heeded," Mr Obaid wrote ominously.
According to Mr Obaid, "Saudi options (in Iraq) now include providing Sunni military leaders ... with the same types of assistance - funding, arms and logistical support - that Iran has been giving to Shia armed groups for years."
"Another possibility," he writes, "includes the establishment of new Sunni brigades to combat the Iranian-backed militias. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, could also flood the oil market forcing prices down by half, a move Mr Obaid said "would be devastating to Iran".
Mr Obaid said both Shia and Sunni are responsible for the rising sectarian violence. "Both the Sunni insurgents and the Shia death squads are to blame for the current bloodshed in Iraq. But while both sides share responsibility, Iraq's Shias don't run the risk of being exterminated in a civil war, which the Sunnis clearly do. Since approximately 65 per cent of Iraq's population is Shia, the Sunni Arabs, who make up a mere 15 to 20 per cent, would have a hard time surviving any full-blown ethnic cleansing campaign," wrote Mr Obaid.
"If the US pulls out leaving a security vacuum in Iraq... remaining on the sidelines would be unacceptable to Saudi Arabia," he wrote.
"To turn a blind eye to the massacre of Iraqi Sunnis would be to abandon the principles upon which Saudi Arabia was founded. It would undermine the Kingdom's credibility in the Sunni world and would be a capitulation to Iran's militarist actions in the region. To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war. So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse."
In Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki dismissed MrObaid's analysis, saying: "I know this article doesn't represent Saudi policies. I am in contact with the Saudi government and they realise the necessity of protecting the democratic process."
Talking to a news agency on his return to Baghdad from talks with Bush in neighbouring Jordan on Thursday, Al-Maliki said: "We have said repeatedly that speaking of one country backing the Sunnis and another the Shias will deepen the differences within Iraqi society."
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