[lbo-talk] Just Foreign Policy News, December 26, 2006

Robert Naiman naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
Tue Dec 26 15:44:36 PST 2006


don't miss today's NYT on Bolivia. It manages to capture in two images what the government there is contending with in terms of opposition from the ancien regime...

In what should win a prize for understatement, the article concludes:

"It is no surprise that many Bolivian supporters of Morales view Santa Cruz as a redoubt of racism and elitism."

Just Foreign Policy News December 26, 2006 http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/blog/

U.S. Should Promote Diplomacy, Not War, in Somalia Ask Congress to push the Bush Administration to support diplomacy in Somalia, not war. http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/somalia.html

Time to Talk to Iran: Petition More than 27,400 people have signed the Peace Action/Just Foreign Policy petition. Please sign/circulate if you have yet to do so. http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iranpetition.html

Tell Your Representatives: Stop the Money and Bring the Troops Home Please write/call your Members of Congress if you have not done so recently. The Congressional recess is also a good time to call the local office. These phone numbers are given on the representatives' web pages, which can be found at www.senate.gov and www.house.gov. http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iraq.html

Just Foreign Policy News daily podcast: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/podcasts/podcast_howto.html

Summary: U.S./Top News Ecuador's bonds plunged on statements from President Correa indicating willingness to pursue an "Argentine-style" default on the country's foreign debt, writes Mark Weisbrot on Huffington Post. The purpose of foreign borrowing is to acquire more resources, which if invested properly, can provide a real return to the economy that is greater than the cost of the borrowing, he notes. If a country is simply borrowing to pay off debt, and looks to be in that situation for the foreseeable future, it may make sense to default and start over.

Ethiopian warplanes attacked the airport in Somalia's capital Monday in a major escalation of fighting between the Ethiopian-backed Somali government and the Islamic Courts movement, the Washington Post reports. The article soft-pedals some aspects of the role of the Bush Administration in the fighting, compared to previous reporting in the Post. It says that the US has "remained on the sidelines," although last week the Post reported that the US had given a "green light" and "tacit support" to the Ethiopian invasion. It notes that regional analysts say US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer's claim that the Somali Islamic movement is now under the control of an al-Qaeda cell is exaggerated; last week the Post reported that the US intelligence community, including Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, doesn't believe it either.

Juan Cole offers "top ten myths about Iraq," including: the US can win, Iraq is not in a civil war, the Lancet study is flawed, Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, Sunni Arab guerrillas will follow us home if we leave, it's a bad idea to set a timetable for withdrawal. Of the claim that insurgents would follow us home, he writes, "People in Ramadi only have one beef with the US. Its troops are going through their wives' underwear in the course of house searches every day… If the US withdrew…people in Ramadi will be happy."

The number of American troops killed in Iraq has now exceeded the death toll from 9/11, AP reports. The milestone came on Christmas.

Iran Iran Sunday reacted defiantly to a UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions because of the country's nuclear program, the New York Times reports. The article notes the US claim that since Iran is an oil exporter it has no need for a civilian nuclear energy program. However, the following AP article suggests that the claim that Iran needs to develop alternative energy sources is quite plausible. The article also notes that Iran's progress in enriching uranium has been slow.

Iran is suffering a dramatic decline in revenue from oil exports, and income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, AP reports. The study's author, Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins, suggests there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes. Stern suggests that if the US simply waits for a few years, it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country. And that is good reason to delay any impulse to take on Iran militarily.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on Monday protested the arrest by U.S. forces of two Iranian envoys who were in Iraq at his invitation, the Los Angeles Times reports. As the visiting diplomats were invited as part of the Iraqi government's efforts to calm the country politically, the incident suggests that the Bush Administration's claims that the Iraqi government is sovereign are somewhat dubious.

Iraq Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani rejected a U.S.-backed proposal to isolate to isolate Muqtada Sadr, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Suspected Iraqi insurgents in Kurdish prisons face the prospect of routine torture, but no prospect for trial or other procedure to separate the innocent from the guilty, the New York Times reports.

Israel/Palestine The Israeli government agreed to remove two dozen military checkpoints in the West Bank, out of more than 500, the New York Times reports.

The Archbishop of Canterbury criticized the Israeli-built wall around Bethlehem, AP reports.

Israel has approved a new settlement in the West Bank to house former Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, AP reports, breaking a promise to the U.S. to halt home construction in the Palestinian territories.

Lebanon The anti-government protests in Lebanon are portrayed in the Western media as a sectarian battle or a coup attempt, The Nation reports. But the biggest motivator driving many protestors is economic inequality. The article notes that in addition to reconstruction costs from the Israeli bombardment this summer, Lebanon faces a huge public debt, which may suggest that a campaign to cancel this debt might be a good way to atone for US collusion in the war.

Bolivia Tension between Bolivia's "affluent east" and the national government is captured by a cellphone image of President Morales with a gunshot wound to the head and the words "Viva Santa Cruz" scrawled above him in blood, Simon Romero reports for the New York Times. Protesters have painted the phrase "Evo, Chola de Chávez" ("Evo, Chávez' Indian Woman") on walls throughout the city. The article notes that the economy is growing, President Morales' approval rating has risen, and the government's assertion of control over the energy sector has gone better than expected by many critics.

Chile The Chilean government has recommended that the privatized pension system be supplanted by a system in which the state would play a much larger role, the New York Times reports, responding to complaints that the system is failing to deliver adequate benefits. The article notes that the Bush Administration had touted the Chilean system as a model in its efforts to "privatize" the US Social Security system. A further irony, not noted in the article, is the significant role played by the Washington-dominated World Bank in promoting privatization of public pension systems in Chile and elsewhere, now widely acknowledged to have been a catastrophe. The article notes that commissions in the Chilean system are estimated to absorb one-third of workers' contributions, perhaps explaining the wild popularity of the system in the financial sector, if not among workers.

Contents: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/blog/

- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org



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