Friday, Dec 29, 2006
Opinion
Turkmenistan after Niyazov http://www.hindu.com/2006/12/29/stories/2006122904371100.htm
Vladimir Radyuhin
There is little clarity on the path the country will take. At stake are its rich reserves of natural gas, the fifth largest in the world.
THE SUDDEN death from heart attack of Turkmenistan's long-time authoritarian leader Saparmurat Niyazov last week has set the stage for a new Great Game for Central Asian energy resources. Under Niyazov, who ruled the desert nation of five million with an iron hand for 21 years, Turkmenistan was largely in the Russian orbit. But other players in the region - China, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran - have stepped up efforts to win a share of Turkmenistan's natural gas resources, the fifth largest in the world.
Niyazov came to power in 1985 as First Secretary of the Turkmen Communist Party, became President in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and was subsequently declared President for Life by the People's Council, the handpicked supreme legislative assembly.
He had built a repressive regime of one man holding the posts of President, Prime Minister, Supreme Commander, and head of the Democratic Party - the only legal political party in Turkmenistan. He kept tossing out his Ministers all the time to prevent them from building a power base of their own and threw many of them in jail. He had created an enormous personality cult, with thousands of his portraits and statues adorning all government offices and public places, and months and days of the week named after him and his mother.
The news of Niyazov's death raised fears of turmoil and instability as he left behind neither a designated successor nor even a legal procedure for selecting one. However, the country's elite moved surprisingly swiftly to consolidate power and prevent a destructive succession fight.
With apparent backing from security strongmen Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov was named Acting President within hours of Niyazov's death, while the Chairman of the People's Council who was to take over as caretaker president under the Constitution was arrested on criminal charges.
The 2,500-member People's Council met in a special one-day session after Niyazov's funeral to unanimously approve an election law, modify the Constitution allowing the Acting President to run for presidency, set the presidential election for February 11, and nominate Mr. Berdymukhammedov as presidential candidate from the ruling party. The other five candidates approved by the legislature were clearly designed to give the coming election an appearance of democratic procedure. Several opposition groups outside Turkmenistan nominated their candidates for President, but there is no way they can join the fray.
Mr. Berdymukhammedov, who has been Health Minister since 1997 and Deputy Prime Minister since 2001, has never been a key player in Turkmenistan's politics. He appears to be a compromise choice for the main power brokers such as the presidential security service chief, Akmurad Redzhepov. It is important for Turkmenistan's clan-based society that Niyazov's would-be successor comes from the same powerful Teke clan as him.
The new ruler has vowed to continue Niyazov's policies, including providing free gas, electricity, water, and bread for all people. It is this policy, funded by billions of dollars from gas exports, that brought stability to Turkmenistan and kept it from becoming a breeding ground for Islamic extremism.
This is no small achievement, considering the fact that Turkmenistan has a long border with Afghanistan, where two million ethnic Turkmen live in Herat Province.
The way the succession issue has been dealt with so far shows that Niyazov's death has not shaken the authoritarian system he has created. But it is not clear yet whether the new ruler will inherit Niyazov's other top posts or whether they will be divided.
There is even less clarity regarding Turkmenistan's future geopolitical orientation and its energy policy, which was getting ambiguous even when Niyazov was at the helm. On the one hand, he promised to sell practically all natural gas to Russia. In 2003 he signed a framework agreement with Gazprom to supply up to 100 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to Russia's natural gas monopoly for 25 years starting from 2009. (Turkmenistan has produced just over 60 bcm of gas in 2006 and plans to double the output in the next few years). In September this year, Niyazov signed a contract with Gazprom to sell it 50 bcm a year in 2007-2009.
"We are going to supply gas to Russia on a priority basis. You should not think that Turkmenistan wants to take its gas elsewhere," Niyazov assured the Russian delegation at the signing ceremony in Ashgabat.
However, Moscow had reason to take Niyazov's assurances with a good pinch of salt, as the Turkmen leader had developed a taste for selling the same gas to different customers.
During a visit to Beijing in April, Niyazov signed a 30-year "general agreement" to supply 30 bcm of gas a year to China by Soviet-era pipelines via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan from 2009 onward. The same month he inked a deal with Tehran for the supply of 14 bcm of gas to Iran in 2007.
Besides, Niyazov had been negotiating with Pakistan to build a gas pipeline via Afghanistan, the TAP project, and, in February, Turkmenistan signed an MoU to supply Pakistan with 3.2 bcm a day for 30 years.
The U.S. and the European Union have also been wooing Turkmenistan to join their strategic Nabuco project to build a gas pipeline from Central Asia across the Caspian to Europe bypassing Russia.
Turkmenistan's government has said it will honour all existing contracts, but Niyazov's death will now turn the gas-rich former Soviet state into a battleground for re-carving the energy map of Central Asia.
Copyright © 2006, The Hindu.