Writing off Phoenix (too bland) and Strathairn (too monotonous) leaves Hoffman, Howard, and Ledger. Ledger probably won't get it cause I think Brokeback will get it for direction & maybe picture. Personally I think Howard did the best job and that H & F was one of the best movies of last year. But my sister says the fat white guy wins it for Capote. He was good. But the role was just not as complex as the H & F role?
Speculation? Bets? (And, yeah, I know this is trivial shit.)
Joanna