[lbo-talk] NYT on equity risk premium

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Sun Feb 26 10:47:41 PST 2006


joanna wrote:


>It's not necessarily the case that they return more, except to
>insiders. I think the statistics of who wins and who loses at stocks
>are not all that impressive. A friend told me once that 90% of those
>who invest in stocks lose money, but I find it hard to believe it's
>that bad.

That may be a twisting of the classic factoid that 80% of futures traders lose money. I don't think it's that bad.

Someone who, say, buys a Vanugard S&P index fund and holds it over 30 or 40 years is going to make a market return less a 0.1% management fee (which doesn't compound to all that much actually). But most people don't do that - they try to trade the market. Surveys show that actual retail investors earn returns about half the market average, which compounds to a lot. Over 30 years, such an "average" investor would earn only 27% as much as the buy-and-holder; over 40, just 21% as much.

Doug



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