Idea of the Week: Avoiding a Nuclear Iran
Like a recurring nightmare, the story of Iran's efforts to avoid international interference with its drive to join the Nuclear Club has lurked on the edge of every day's news lately. Most recently, Tehran resumed its nuclear fuel enrichment program, a direct rebuke to Germany, France, and Britain's efforts through two years of negotiations to get the Iranians to abandon this perilous path toward a highly destabilizing nuclear weapons capacity. Coming on the heels of a variety of disturbing statements by Iran's new president about his desire to exterminate Israel, this latest zag seems to have provoked the wrath of even the Russians and the Chinese.
But as Sen. Hillary Clinton noted in a speech earlier this week, it's time now for the United States to strike while the iron is hot with a tough new strategy to encourage the now- galvanized international community to push Tehran to change directions.
"We cannot and should not--must not--permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons," she said in an address at Princeton University. "In order to prevent that from occurring, we must have more support vigorously and publicly expressed by China and Russia, and we must move as quickly as feasible for sanctions in the United Nations." Clinton also bluntly suggested the ultimate threat of force should be maintained and made credible. "We cannot take any option off the table in sending a clear message to the current leadership of Iran that they will not be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons."
A nuclear Iran is indeed unacceptable. Iran is by any reasonable definition a rogue state. It subsidizes terrorists throughout the Middle East; has given safe haven to al Qaeda members; and is clearly manipulating Shi'a extremists in Iraq who hope to set up a Tehran-aligned Islamist state. Its current theocratic regime seems determined to rehabilitate the crudest sort of Nazi-style antisemitism and use it as a rationale for opposing any Israeli- Palestinian peace agreement. If Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability, it will not only further destabilize the world's most fragile region, it will also trigger a new nuclear arms race and all but destroy the credibility of global nonproliferation rules.
Sen. Clinton is right in challenging the administration to show leadership on this issue. The president identified Iran as a charter member of the "Axis of Evil" in 2002, but then failed to forge a coherent policy for checking Tehran's nuclear ambitions or curbing its support of Middle East terror groups. Preoccupied by its misadventures in Iraq, the administration more recently decided to back European efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. That was the right call. We have few credible military options at a time when U.S. forces have their hands full in Afghanistan and Iraq. Moreover, embracing diplomacy with respect to Iran has helped repair damaged relations with key European allies and solidify their determination to stop Iran's flouting of global nonproliferation rules. And finally, while Iran's regime can't bring itself to make concessions to the United States, it does fear economic and political isolation.
But now that it has thumbed its nose at European negotiators, Tehran must be decisively brought to heel. Sen. Clinton is right that we should push the U.N. security council to take up the matter of sanctions and call the bluff of the Tehran bully-boys who seem to believe that the rest of the world will turn rabbit at the threat of losing access to Iranian oil. The current regime in Iran has much more to lose from sanctions--including, quite possibly, its own power at the hands of a population that's already chafing under the mullahs' repression--than anyone else.
Just yesterday, Sen. Evan Bayh introduced a resolution in the Senate calling on the administration to press for U.N. sanctions. As he rightly said: "We have wasted valuable time, diverted resources and ignored this problem at our peril," Sen. Bayh said. "No one wants to forestall the need to use military force more than I do, but if we are to do so, we must act now. Time is of the essence."
Specifically, President Bush should tap his famous friendship with Vladimir Putin to press the Russians--who have significant influence in Tehran, in part because they have already agreed to build a nuclear power plant in Iran and supply it with non-weapons grade fuel--to support sanctions. If Russia joins the great power coalition seeking to enforce global nonproliferation rules, the odds are that China will not use its veto to thwart sanctions.
Should Iran persist in its intransigence, the Council would then have no choice but to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions. It is essential that the major powers dramatically raise the costs to Tehran of pursuing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. If that fails, we will have to seriously contemplate the use of military force. Only this time, there will be no doubt that the United States and other leading powers have exhausted every possible avenue to a peaceful solution.
Sen. Clinton's address to Princeton University http://clinton.senate.gov/news/statements/details.cfm?id=250529&&
Sen. Bayh's annoucement calling for sanctions against Iran http://bayh.senate.gov/releases/2006/01/19JAN06PR.htm