In this issue: 1) Oil Eases Under $74 Ahead of Iranian Nuclear Talks 2) U.S. Standoffs With Iran, N.Korea Continue 3) Bush to Meet With German Chancellor Thurs. 4) Oil Prices Fall Below $74 a Barrel 5) Iran Bars Visits by U.N. Nuclear Inspector Critical of Its Government 6) Bush's Shift: Being Patient With Foes 7) Iran Asks IAEA to Remove Chief Inspector 8) N. Korea Crisis Hurts Unity on Iran Nukes 9) General Faults Marine Response to Iraq Killings 10) 50,000 Dead, But Who's Counting? 11) Mexican Courts Decide if Calderon Winner 12) A Recount in Mexico 13) Don't Take the High Road 14) Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged 15) Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election
Summary: Oil edged below $74 a barrel on Monday, extending the previous session's 1.4 percent fall led by reduced tension over Iran's nuclear program after Iran's top nuclear negotiator expressed optimism that the standoff can be resolved peacefully. Oil in New York is up over 20 percent this year because of the Iranian dispute, supply cuts in Nigeria and a flood of investment fund money into commodities. Adjusted for inflation, oil is more expensive than at any time since 1980, the year after the Iranian Revolution. Prices have also been supported by resilient demand. NYMEX gasoline fell 0.89 percent to $2.2195 a gallon.
Iran's nuclear program is expected to be a key topic in Thursday's visit of President Bush to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Anti-war activists in Germany are gearing up to protest Bush's visit, much as they did during his two previous trips to the country. One of Bush's stops will be the northern coastal city of Stralsund, where the local chapter of Germany's Social Democratic party has proclaimed that the president is not welcome.
Tehran warned the Group of Eight Sunday against making any decisions on Iran's nuclear program without consulting it first. "Any (G-8) summit decision on Iran -- if premature and incomplete -- could harm the current positive trend of negotiations," Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said. "The G-8 summit won't be comprehensive without Iran's participation and opinion."
Iran has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to remove the head of the inspection team probing Tehran's nuclear program and barred him from visiting the country, officials and a diplomat said Sunday. The German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported Sunday that the inspector, Chris Charlier, had been removed from his post and assigned to other duties. Some officials said that he is still head of the team. Charlier was reported as saying that he had not been allowed into Iran for several months. Charlier was also quoted as saying he believes Iran is operating a clandestine nuclear program and suggested it was linked to weapons. Last year in a BBC documentary he complained about the lack of freedom inspectors faced in Iran. "Whatever we say, whatever we do, they're always behind us with a video camera, with a microphone, trying to record all our movement and all things that we're saying."
As he leaves for Europe and Russia this week, where nuclear standoffs in Iran and North Korea will top the agenda, President Bush finds himself struggling to square his muscular declarations with the realpolitik of his second term after the invasion of Iraq, David Sanger reports for the New York Times. At every provocation, he finds himself in an unaccustomed position: urging patience. To some conservatives who backed Mr. Bush's decision in Iraq, "standing by and waiting" is the essence of Mr. Bush's current strategy. Mr. Bush's aides say their critics have done everything but describe a workable alternative. Iran, they note, is five or more years from a nuclear weapon — and, in their more candid moments, they acknowledge that it has numerous options for retaliating for any military action. He knows, aides say, that even to hint at military action or deadlines if Iran refuses to suspend enriching uranium would probably destroy any chance of getting China and Russia aboard on a common strategy.
With the uproar over North Korea's missile tests, America and its allies are fretting that all the attention could hurt their effort to curb Iran's suspect nuclear program, George Jahn reports for AP. Some diplomats involved in both issues said over the past few days that the North Korean crisis could push talks with Iran further down the international agenda. Before the G8 summit, the U.S. and its allies on the Security Council "can apply pressure on Russia" to stand with the West in dealing with Iran, a diplomat said. That lever will be weaker after the St. Petersburg meeting. A U.N. diplomat told AP that the Americans considered Thursday's informal meeting between European Union envoy Javier Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani a flop that failed to advance the effort to get Tehran to freeze uranium enrichment and start negotiations on its nuclear program. A European official said that while the Americans remained interested in a negotiated solution to the Iran issue, "the negotiating mode is suddenly less valued" in Washington because of the unexpected North Korean developments.
The second-ranking American commander in Iraq has concluded that some senior Marine officers were negligent in failing to investigate more aggressively the killings of 24 Iraqi civilians by marines in Haditha last November, two Defense Department officials said Friday. The officer, Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, concluded that in the deaths, including those of 10 women and children and an elderly man in a wheelchair, senior officers failed to follow up on inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the initial reporting of the incident that should have raised questions. General Chiarelli faulted the senior staff of the Second Marine Division, commanded at the time by Maj. Gen. Richard A. Huck, and the Second Regimental Combat Team, then headed by Col. Stephen W. Davis, and recommended unspecified disciplinary action for some officers, said the two defense officials.
After telling reporters that they "don't do body counts", Pentagon officials now say that they have in fact been keeping a record of civilian casualties in Iraq for one year. That number remains classified. Independent estimates suggest that at least 50,000 people have died in the country since the 2003 invasion. The Washington-based Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) and other humanitarian organisations called on the U.S. military to release its data. CIVIC's Sarah Holewinski, suggested that it is unlikely that the Pentagon will release its data unless compelled to by Congress.
Felipe Calderon isn't Mexico's president-elect until the nation's highest electoral court says so, noted an AP story on Friday. The independent agency that ran last Sunday's election has no legal authority to declare a winner. Under Mexico's election laws, Calderon won't have won until the Federal Electoral Tribunal certifies the count. And that's not a sure thing: the widely respected tribunal has overturned two gubernatorial races in recent years, both for meddling by the ruling party.
The New York Times on Friday editorialized in favor of a complete recount in the Mexican election.
López Obrador said that Calderón was wrong to begin assuming the role of president-elect before the results of last Sunday's contests had been upheld in court. He objected to the congratulatory messages that had been sent to Calderón from the United States, Spain and Canada. He said it was all part of a strategy by Calderón to end a process that was not yet over.
In yesterday's Washington Post, Ronald Klain, general counsel for the Gore-Lieberman Recount Committee in 2000, suggested that Mexican opposition presidential candidate Lopez Obrador must "call his supporters to the streets and question the legitimacy of the vote casting and counting process."
A crowd estimated at 280,000 by the Mexico City government filled the central city square on Saturday to protest in support of the opposition's demands for a recount in the Mexican presidential election. López Obrador told the crowd that he was organizing a march to the capital Wednesday from all over Mexico, including states hundreds of miles distant. "This is, and will continue to be, a peaceful movement," he said. Seconds later, he announced another mass rally, this one for July 16, at which the crowd raucously yelled back: "What time?" Thousands of protesters chanted "Voto por voto, casilla por casilla" -- vote by vote, polling place by polling place -- as they streamed into the square.
Articles: 1) Oil Eases Under $74 Ahead of Iranian Nuclear Talks Reuters July 10, 2006 Filed at 4:20 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil edged below $74 a barrel on Monday, extending the previous session's 1.4 percent fall on expectations of progress in talks on Iran's nuclear program.
Prices hit a record high of $75.78 on Friday on signs of easing tension between the West and Iran, with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana set to meet Iranian representatives on Tuesday.
2) U.S. Standoffs With Iran, N.Korea Continue Associated Press July 10, 2006 Filed at 4:12 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-NKorea-Iran.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush has softened the U.S. stance against Iran and North Korea, trying to bargain with regimes he once lumped with Iraq in an ''axis of evil.'' But the results in his second term are largely the same as in his first -- nuclear standoffs against nations that define themselves by their opposition to U.S. policies even as they angle for Washington's attention.
3) Bush to Meet With German Chancellor Thurs. Associated Press July 10, 2006 Filed at 3:38 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Bush-Germany.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- There are still disagreements over such issues as global warming, the death penalty and the U.S.-run prison at Guantanamo Bay, but it is still hard to remember a time when U.S.-German relations were on a sounder footing. And the good feelings will be on display Thursday when, while en route to the G-8 summit in Russia, President Bush will be the guest of Chancellor Angela Merkel, head of Germany's Christian Democrats, on a visit to her home state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the former East Germany.
4) Oil Prices Fall Below $74 a Barrel Associated Press July 10, 2006 Filed at 5:47 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Oil-Prices.html
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude oil prices retreated Monday as traders took profits following recent gains and amid easing worries about Iran's nuclear dispute after the country's top nuclear negotiator expressed optimism that the standoff can be resolved peacefully.
5) Iran Bars Visits by U.N. Nuclear Inspector Critical of Its Government Reuters July 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/10/world/middleeast/10iran.html
BERLIN, July 9 (Reuters) — Iran has barred a senior United Nations nuclear inspector who has criticized the government from visiting the country, a Western diplomat said Sunday. The diplomat was confirming a report in the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, in which the International Atomic Energy Agency section chief for Iran, Chris Charlier of Belgium, was reported as saying that he had not been allowed into Iran for several months.
6) Bush's Shift: Being Patient With Foes David E. Sanger New York Times July 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/10/world/asia/10prexy.html
WASHINGTON, July 9 — President Bush has never made apologies for enshrining pre-emption as the defining doctrine of his first term. He has declared many times that in a post-9/11 world, presidents no longer have the luxury of waiting for the slow grinding of diplomatic give-and-take when unpredictable dictators are assembling arsenals that could threaten the United States. But as he leaves for Europe and Russia this week, where the simultaneous nuclear standoffs in Iran and North Korea will top the agenda, Mr. Bush finds himself struggling to square his muscular declarations with the realpolitik of his second term after the invasion of Iraq. At every turn, and every provocation, he finds himself in an unaccustomed position: urging patience.
7) Iran Asks IAEA to Remove Chief Inspector George Jahn Associated Press Sunday, July 9, 2006; 10:11 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/09/AR2006070900192.html
BETINA, Croatia -- Iran has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to remove the head of the inspection team probing Tehran's nuclear program, U.N. officials said Sunday. The inspector, Chris Charlier, has not been back to Iran since April because of Iranian displeasure with his work, the officials said. However, Charlier remains the head of the team, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the issue was confidential. The German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported Sunday that Charlier had been removed from his post and assigned to other duties. It quoted him as saying he believes Iran is operating a clandestine nuclear program and suggested it was linked to weapons.
8) N. Korea Crisis Hurts Unity on Iran Nukes George Jahn Associated Press Sunday, July 9, 2006; 1:55 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/09/AR2006070900282.html
With the uproar over North Korea's missile tests, America and its allies are fretting that all the attention could hurt their effort to curb Iran's suspect nuclear program. Some diplomats involved in both issues fear international focus is shifting too much to Pyongyang, which test-fired seven missiles Wednesday. The U.N. Security Council is working on a resolution on North Korea as the U.S. and other nations seek ways to engage the regime in talks.
9) General Faults Marine Response to Iraq Killings Eric Schmitt and David S. Cloud New York Times July 8, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/08/world/middleeast/08haditha.html
The second-ranking American commander in Iraq has concluded that some senior Marine officers were negligent in failing to investigate more aggressively the killings of 24 Iraqi civilians by marines in Haditha last November, two Defense Department officials said Friday. The officer, Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, concluded that in the deaths, including those of 10 women and children and an elderly man in a wheelchair, senior officers failed to follow up on inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the initial reporting of the incident that should have raised questions.
10) 50,000 Dead, But Who's Counting? Juliana Lara Resende Inter Press Service July 7 http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33897
After famously telling reporters that they "don't do body counts", Pentagon officials now say that they have in fact been keeping a record of civilian casualties in Iraq for one year. And while that number remains classified, independent estimates suggest that at least 50,000 people have died in the country since the 2003 invasion.
11) Mexican Courts Decide if Calderon Winner David Koop, Associated Press Friday, July 7, 2006; 9:05 PM
Felipe Calderon isn't Mexico's president-elect until the nation's highest electoral court says so. The independent agency that ran Sunday's election added up more than 41 million votes and declared that Calderon won the most: 240,000 more than rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. But this agency has no legal authority to declare a winner.
Under Mexico's election laws, Calderon won't have won until the Federal Electoral Tribunal certifies the count. And that's not a sure thing: the widely respected tribunal has overturned two gubernatorial races in recent years, both for meddling by the ruling party.
12) A Recount in Mexico Editorial New York Times July 7, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/07/opinion/07fri2.html
There are enough problems to warrant a complete recount. Some polling stations that have recounted their ballots have found that the votes were misrecorded on tally sheets. The earlier discrepancies appeared to largely favor Mr. Calderón, in at least one case mistakenly awarding him hundreds of extra votes. The I.F.E. cannot legally order a recount of the entire presidential election. But the Federal Election Tribunal, an independent panel created to handle these kinds of disputes, could. In previous races, it has called new elections in the states of Tabasco and Colima. Mr. Calderón should not oppose a recount. If the result favors him, he should be able to govern more effectively.
13) Don't Take the High Road Ronald Klain Washington Post Sunday, July 9, 2006; B01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/07/AR2006070701157.html
For the presidential campaign of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador… It's only a matter of time before the Mexican equivalent of our pundit class begins its demands for "finality." For Lopez Obrador, the clock is ticking loudly. If he wants to keep his candidacy alive, he must take decisive action. He must bring meaningful and documented claims of fraud in the election. He must call his supporters to the streets and question the legitimacy of the vote casting and counting process. He must demand that, notwithstanding Mexican law, every ballot be recounted, by hand, to ensure an accurate tally. Above all, he must reject any suggestion that Calderòn received more votes -- indeed, he must insist that any fair count would show that he is the rightful winner.
14) Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged Populist's Plan for Legal Challenge Ignites Boisterous Crowd at Massive Rally in Capital Manuel Roig-Franzia Washington Post Sunday, July 9, 2006; A01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/08/AR2006070801010.html
Downtown Mexico City swelled Saturday with the accumulated frustration and rage of the poor, who were stoked into a sign-waving, fist-pumping frenzy by new fraud allegations that failed populist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador hopes will overturn the results of Mexico's presidential election.
15) Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election James C. Mckinley Jr. and Ginger Thompson New York Times July 9, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/09/world/americas/09mexico.html
…On Saturday, [López Obrador] led a rally of at least 150,000 people, charged the polling had been marred by fraud and suggested there would be civil unrest without a vote-by-vote recount. López Obrador called on his supporters to march Wednesday from every electoral district in the country to the capital, an echo of his 1994 march from Tabasco to the capital to protest his defeat in the governor's race.
-- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy