[lbo-talk] Just Foreign Policy News - July 11, 2006

Robert Naiman naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
Tue Jul 11 07:36:55 PDT 2006


Just Foreign Policy News July 11, 2006

In this issue: 1) Oil Slips Further From Peak Ahead of Iran Talks 2) EU Pushes for Iran Nuclear Reply Before G8 Deadline 3) Iran Rejects Deadline at EU Nuclear Talks 4) Rice Says Time for Iran to Give Nuclear Reply 5) Time Up for Iran's Answer on Weapon 6) Diplomats Press Iran for Answer on Deal 7) US Army to Call Reporters in Officer's Case 8) Mexico Leftist Cries Fraud with Election Videos 9) Leftist Screens Videos He Says Prove Fraud in Mexico Vote 10) Leftist Claims Broad Fraud in Mexican Vote 11) There Is No President-Elect in Mexico

Summary:

The European Union will push Iran on Tuesday to respond to an offer of incentives to halt uranium enrichment just days before a G8 deadline, but Iran insists it wants more time. The West has urged Iran to accept a package of technology, economic and political sweeteners by Saturday's meeting of Group of Eight major power nations in St Petersburg in Russia, or face possible U.N. Security Council action. Diplomats say Russia and China are wary about imposing sanctions on Tehran and so acknowledge there is little pressure on Iran to give an early reply. "Tomorrow, we will not give a definite answer,'' an Iranian official said Monday. "We will only discuss questions and ambiguities regarding the offer,'' the official said, adding that a final response was ''very unlikely'' even if Solana answered all their queries on the package.

Two U.S. nuclear analysts said the offer would be more appealing to Iran if it included U.S.-backed assurances of no threats or use of force, and a pledge of quick help to restore infrastructure worn down by U.S.-driven trade restrictions. "Iran is not prepared to relinquish (enrichment) for tenuous concessions like multilateral talks to which the U.S. is one party, or promises of nuclear and economic assistance involving long timetables and complicated conditions,'' said former U.N. arms inspector David Albright and analyst Jacqueline Shire. The Institute for Science and International Security said Iran had to be offered a way forward which "makes the decision to give up enrichment an appealing, logical step and not a humiliating, defeated one.''

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday it was time for Iran to give a definitive answer to a major powers' proposal for the Islamic republic to negotiate over curbs on its nuclear programs. Rice demanded a response despite the country's nuclear negotiator warning he would not give Iran's final answer on Tuesday to the top EU diplomat at a meeting where the powers hope for a formal reply.

The Bush administration is poised to press the Security Council to begin the process of imposing punitive action against Iran, after signals that Tehran will not provide straightforward acceptance or rejection today of a proposal designed to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, U.S. and European officials said yesterday, the Washington Post reports. The United States and some Security Council countries have now concluded that Iran has decided to test American resolve and the solidarity of Security Council cooperation, U.S. and European officials said. With Iran insisting that it needs more time, Rice is expected to urge Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany to begin the process of imposing the sticks in the carrots-or-sticks proposal, U.S. and European officials said. The Bush administration wants an answer before the G-8 meeting in Russia, while Moscow wants a spirit of cooperation to produce a positive outcome on many issues.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, falling for a fourth session on profit taking and hopes of progress toward resolving Iran's atomic stand-off when Iranian and EU officials meet later in the day. But traders said the fall was limited by Tehran's reluctance to reach an agreement quickly, as well as expectations of a strong draw on U.S. gasoline after the Independence Day holiday weekend. Oil is falling on hopes Iran will eventually commit to diplomatic initiatives, with some analysts saying the dispute accounts for as much as $5 a barrel of current firm values. Oil is up about 20 percent this year because of concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, supply cuts in Nigeria and a flood of investment fund money into commodities.

The U.S. Army plans to call two journalists as witnesses to support charges filed against an officer who refused to fight in Iraq because of his objections to the war, his lawyer said. First Lt. Ehren Watada is facing charges over his refusal to deploy to Iraq with his unit. Last week, the Army charged Watada with missing his deployment, conduct unbecoming an officer and contempt toward officials. If found guilty on all charges, he faces up to seven years of prison. To prove that he made "contemptuous'' comments about President George W. Bush and therefore engaged in conduct unbecoming an officer, the Army plans to call two journalists to attest to comments Watada made during interviews, the officer's lawyer said. In the charge sheet, the Army also said Watada made ''disgraceful'' statements about the president. Watada, who supporters say is the first commissioned U.S. officer to publicly refuse to serve in Iraq, has called the war and U.S. occupation of Iraq ``illegal'' and said his participation would make him party to war crimes. The charge sheet quotes Watada as saying in one interview: ''As I read about the level of deception the Bush administration used to initiate and process this war, I was shocked. I became ashamed of wearing the uniform.'' The lawyer argues that such comments are within Watada's First Amendment rights to make.

Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador showed what he called video proof of fraud and refused to commit to accepting a final court ruling on the results. On Monday, Lopez Obrador played two amateur videos that he said documented cheating by his rivals, saying similar instances of fraud had taken place across the country. One video showed a purported PAN supporter in the central state of Guanajuato stuffing a ballot box for congressional elections held the same day as the presidential vote. The other, taken in Queretaro state during the presidential vote recount, showed what appeared to be an electoral official refusing to recount a ballot box that favored Calderon. Obrador repeated his demand for a nationwide, vote-by-vote recount and said he would wait to see the court's ruling on his lawsuit before deciding if he would accept it.

Ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon is already acting as if were the president. Foreign leaders including President Bush have called Calderon to congratulate him. Election results have not been ratified by the Federal Electoral Tribunal, which has until Aug. 31 to rule on whether it will grant Mr. López Obrador's request for a recount. Until it does, Mexico remains without a settled heir to the presidency. President Fox's spokesman said Monday that Fox would not meet with either Calderón or López Obrador until the electoral tribunal had certified the winner. John M. Ackerman, an expert on electoral law at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, argued that a recount would strengthen democracy by removing public doubt about the transparency of the process. He said that Mr. López Obrador had shown enough evidence to raise the tribunal's attention. "They have a real case," he said. Lopez Obrador supporters say they plan to visit foreign embassies here to demand their governments not congratulate Felipe Calderon until Mexican courts hear the appeals for a manual recount. Calderon has taken congratulatory phone calls from President Bush and the leaders of Canada, Spain and Colombia, among others. White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush would acknowledge any Mexican court rulings that could change who won the election.

Just Foreign Policy was interviewed on WBAI in New York Monday morning. JFP stressed that contrary to some press reports, there is no president-elect in Mexico until the Federal Electoral Tribunal says there is, and the Federal Electoral Tribunal has broad scope to order the recount of ballots.

Articles: 1) Oil Slips Further From Peak Ahead of Iran Talks Reuters July 11, 2006 Filed at 2:26 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil eased on Tuesday, falling for a fourth session on extended profit taking from last week's record high and hopes of progress toward resolving Iran's atomic stand-off when Iranian and EU officials meet later in the day. But traders said losses were limited by Tehran's reluctance to reach an agreement quickly, as well as expectations of a strong draw on U.S. gasoline after the Independence Day holiday weekend when fresh data is released on Wednesday.

2) EU Pushes for Iran Nuclear Reply Before G8 Deadline Reuters July 11, 2006 Filed at 6:56 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will push Iran on Tuesday to respond to an offer of incentives to halt uranium enrichment in a new encounter just days before a key G8 deadline, but Tehran insists it wants more time. The West has urged Iran to accept a package of technology, economic and political sweeteners by Saturday's meeting of Group of Eight major power nations in St Petersburg in Russia, or face possible U.N. Security Council action.

3) Iran Rejects Deadline at EU Nuclear Talks Reuters July 11, 2006 Filed at 7:01 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-eu.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Iran's chief nuclear negotiator rebuffed Western pressure on Tuesday for an immediate answer to a package of incentives to suspend uranium enrichment ahead of crucial talks with the European Union. The United States, which accuses Tehran of secretly working to build nuclear weapons, has demanded a clear Iranian response before next weekend's summit of Group of Eight industrialized nations in Russia or face possible U.N. Security Council action.

4) Rice Says Time for Iran to Give Nuclear Reply Reuters July 10, 2006 Filed at 5:19 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-nuclear-iran-usa.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday it was time for Iran to give a definitive answer to a major powers' proposal for the Islamic republic to negotiate over curbs on its nuclear programs. Rice demanded a response despite the country's nuclear negotiator warning he would not give Iran's final answer on Tuesday to the top EU diplomat at a meeting where the powers hope for a formal reply.

5) Time Up for Iran's Answer on Weapon Viewing Delay as a Test, U.S. Ready To Pressure U.N. to Penalize Tehran Robin Wright Washington Post Tuesday, July 11, 2006; A12 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071001232.html

The Bush administration is poised to press the U.N. Security Council to begin the process of imposing punitive action against Iran, after signals over the weekend that Tehran will not provide the straightforward acceptance or rejection today of a U.S.-backed proposal designed to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, U.S. and European officials said yesterday. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana is scheduled to meet Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani today in Brussels to get an answer, a meeting that already had been delayed a week. But over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Solana had not provided answers about what Iranian officials have termed ambiguities in the plan.

6) Diplomats Press Iran for Answer on Deal Anne Gearan Associated Press Monday, July 10, 2006; 7:15 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071001003.html

WASHINGTON -- U.S. and British diplomats said Monday that Iran has had long enough to consider a proposed deal to give up disputed parts of its nuclear program, but they gave no specifics about what the world will do if Iran does not budge. Neither Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice nor British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett sounded confident that Tehran will give a definitive response this week, as the nations that made the offer had said they wanted.

7) US Army to Call Reporters in Officer's Case Reuters July 11, 2006 Filed at 0:19 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-iraq-us-officer.html

SEATTLE (Reuters) - The U.S. Army plans to call two journalists as witnesses to support charges filed against an officer who refused to fight in Iraq because of his objections to the war, the lieutenant's lawyer said on Monday. First Lt. Ehren Watada is facing charges over his refusal to deploy to Iraq with his unit on June 22 and choosing to remain at the Fort Lewis base in Washington state. Last week, the Army charged Watada with missing his deployment, conduct unbecoming an officer and contempt toward officials. If found guilty on all charges, he faces up to seven years of confinement, dismissal and forfeiture of pay.

8) Mexico Leftist Cries Fraud with Election Videos Reuters July 11, 2006 Filed at 1:49 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The leftist candidate who narrowly lost Mexico's contested presidential election showed what he called video proof of fraud on Monday and refused to commit to accepting a final court ruling on the results. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City, has asked an electoral court to reverse a razor-thin victory in the July 2 election for conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN. On Monday, Lopez Obrador played two shaky amateur videos that he said documented cheating by his rivals.

9) Leftist Screens Videos He Says Prove Fraud in Mexico Vote Ginger Thompson New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/11/world/americas/11mexico.html July 11, 2006

On the morning after his campaign filed a legal challenge to last week's presidential elections, the leftist candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, stepped up his public campaign against the vote, screening two videos that he said proved the election was flawed. One video showed what he described as a voter in President Vicente Fox's home state of Guanajuato illegally stuffing a ballot box in the race for Congress. The other video, he said, showed that election officials in the state of Querétaro had wrongly given his conservative opponent, Felipe Calderón, 200 more votes than he had actually won at one polling station.

10) Leftist Claims Broad Fraud in Mexican Vote Associated Press July 10, 2006 Filed at 11:39 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mexico-Elections-Challenge.html

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his campaign staff claimed that a network of federal officials, prosecutors and possibly even judges collaborated in a broad conspiracy to steal last week's presidential elections. They say they have evidence for the fraud, including videos like one Lopez Obrador showed reporters on Monday, in which a man in the state of Guanajuato is seen stuffing several ballots into a ballot box marked for congressional races. It was not clear who the votes were marked for. There was no immediate way to confirm the authenticity of the video. Lopez Obrador supporters say they plan to visit foreign embassies here to demand their governments not congratulate conservative Felipe Calderon -- who narrowly won the July 2 race according to the official vote count -- until Mexican courts hear the leftist's appeals for a manual recount.

11) There Is No President-Elect in Mexico Interview with Just Foreign Policy WBAI Radio, New York July 10, 2006 http://archive.wbai.org/pls.php?mp3fil=6792 JFP stressed that contrary to some press reports, there is no president-elect in Mexico until the Federal Electoral Tribunal says there is, and the Federal Electoral Tribunal has broad scope to order the recount of ballots. The story on Mexico starts at 48:18. The interview is about 10 minutes long.

-- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy



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