In this issue: 1) Bush, Putin Concerned Iran has Not Responded 2) G8 to Give Trade a Push Amid Strains Over Mideast 3) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa 4) UN's Iran Nuclear Referral "Not Constructive" 5) Iran Calls Western Incentives Acceptable 6) Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone 7) A Price Inflamed By Fear 8) Rice: No point in temporary ceasefire 9) Blair and Annan Call for International Force 10) Bombs Fall, Missiles Strike, and Death and Life Go On 11) Despite Joint Statement on Mideast, Strains Emerge as U.S. Supports Israel's Campaign 12) Analysis: Iran the Lurking Mideast Issue 13) Militia Rebuked by Some Arab Countries 14) Oil on Rise Toward $78 After Mideast Violence 15) The Real Aim is to Change the Regime in Lebanon 16) In search of the truth about the Israel lobby's influence on Washington 17) Crowds Rally Again to Demand Recount in Mexico 18) Mexico Leftist to Launch Civil Resistance
Summary: President Bush and Russian President Putin expressed concern Monday that Iran had not responded to an incentives offer. The two leaders made a show of unity in a joint statement declaring their intention to try to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Iran said Sunday that Western incentives to halt its nuclear program were an ''acceptable basis'' for talks, and it is ready for detailed negotiations. Secretary of State Rice responded that Iran should talk directly to negotiators if it wants to discuss the proposal. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters, ''We consider this package an appropriate basis, an acceptable basis (for talks)…Now is an appropriate opportunity for Iran and Europe to enter detailed negotiations,'' he said. ''Sending the dossier to the U.N. Security Council means blocking and rejecting talks.'' Asefi called on the eight major world powers meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, to choose dialogue with Iran. Iran has said specialized committees in key state agencies are studying the offer and that it will formally respond in late August. Iran has said it will never give up its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel, but has indicated it may temporarily suspend large-scale activities to ease tensions.
Hizbollah rockets killed eight people in Haifa Sunday and bombs shook Beirut as Israel pursued a five-day-old assault in Lebanon aimed at crippling the Shi'ite Muslim group. Hizbollah said the attack was retaliation for Israel's killing of civilians and destruction of Lebanese infrastructure. Israel's campaign in Lebanon has killed 112 people, all but four civilians. It has drawn only a mild plea for restraint from the United States. President Bush characterized Israel's actions as self-defense and did not back Lebanon's pleas for an immediate ceasefire. Lebanon said Italy's Prime Minister had relayed Israeli conditions for a ceasefire. "Prodi told me that … Olmert informed him of two demands for a ceasefire -- handing over the two captive Israeli soldiers and a Hizbollah pullback to behind the Litani river,'' Prime Minister Siniora said. The Litani river is 12 miles north of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The United States earlier blocked any move by the U.N. Security Council to demand a ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Rice said a ceasefire demanded by Siniora would not work unless it addressed the cause of the problem, which Washington says is Hizbollah violence supported by Syria and Iran. French President Chirac called for a ceasefire, while British Prime Minister Blair echoed the U.S. line.
The United States squabbled with France over interpretation of a joint summit declaration that urged Israel to be restrained in its offensive in Lebanon but told Hezbollah to make the first moves to end the crisis. France's Chirac, who has differed already with Washington by criticizing Israeli action as excessive, said late Sunday that the G8 was basically calling for a ceasefire. "It is clear that the G8 is calling for a ceasefire. I can tell you that the whole of the G8 has called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon,'' he said. But Washington flatly contradicted him. "There was no push for a ceasefire this weekend,'' UnderSecretary of State Burns said.
UN Secretary-General Annan said Security Council members would on Monday start hammering out a detailed agreement on deploying a multilateral security force to Lebanon. The initial reaction from Israel was cool. "I don't think we're at that stage yet,'' an Israeli government spokeswoman said.
While the Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran and Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers, those countries may not have planned and ordered the raid, according to U.S. officials and terrorism experts, the Los Angeles Times reported Friday. Some officials and experts say Hezbollah can move on its own initiative and for its own reasons. U.S. and Israeli charges that their longtime adversaries were somehow involved could heighten the tension in the region. U.S. officials declined to offer specific evidence of Iranian or Syrian involvement in Wednesday's raid. The State Department's annual report on terrorism notes that Hezbollah is capable of independent action. "Hezbollah is closely allied with Iran and often acts at its behest, but it also can and does act independently," the report says. Hezbollah leaders deny that they are agents of Iran or Syria, but they acknowledge Iran's financial support, which some Western intelligence agencies say amount to more than $200 million a year. Military affairs analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says this estimate is inflated since it is based on Western prices.
Up to a third of the price of oil may be a "politcal premium" due to market fears of conflict, the Washington Post reported on Friday. As oil topped $76 a barrel the article suggested that $10-15 of this was due to the fear of conflict with Iran. This would translate to 24 to 36 cents a gallon at the pump (42 gallons per barrel) due to fear of conflict with Iran.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states chastised Hezbollah for "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts" at an emergency Arab League summit meeting Saturday. The Saudi foreign minister said of Hezbollah's attacks on Israel, "These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we cannot simply accept them." His words were reported by other delegates. Some in Beirut said they were deeply disappointed in their fellow Arabs. "I am ashamed of the Arabs," said Omar Ajaq, who with his family escaped the bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs to a shelter in central Beirut. "They are utterly useless. People are now betting on the resistance. We no longer have faith in Arab leaders."
The Pentagon notified Congress of plans to sell Israel jet fuel valued at up to $210 million "to keep peace and security in the region". "The proposed sale of the JP-8 aviation fuel will enable Israel to maintain the operational capability of its aircraft inventory," the Pentagon said in notice required by law. "The jet fuel will be consumed while (Israel's) aircraft (are) in use to keep peace and security in the region," the notice to Congress said. It said the sale - which Congress may block if both houses were to enact resolutions rejecting it within 30 days - would not affect the basic military balance in the region.
Oil pushed toward record highs of $78 a barrel on Monday after a weekend of worsening conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas unnerved traders who fear the violence could escalate and spread across the oil-producing Middle East. With the brunt of the U.S. hurricane season still to come, oil futures contracts for later delivery were trading above $80 from November 2006 to July 2007.
The real aim of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon is to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government, writes veteran Israeli journalist and peace activist Uri Avnery. Everything else is noise and propaganda. The present operation has several secondary aims, which do not include the freeing of the prisoners. It is probably possible to destroy some of the thousands of missiles that Hizbullah has accumulated. For this end, the army chiefs are ready to endanger the inhabitants of the Israeli towns exposed to the rockets. They believe that is worthwhile, like an exchange of chess pieces. Another secondary aim is to rehabilitate the "deterrent power" of the army. That is a codeword for the restoration of the army's injured pride that has suffered a severe blow from the military actions of Hamas and Hizbullah.
An article in the Washington Post magazine on Sunday took on the controversy about the power of the "Israel lobby" in Washington. In March two distinguished political scientists published a heavily footnoted essay arguing that the Bush administration's support for Israel has "inflamed Arab and Islamic opinion and jeopardized U.S. security." The professors claim that the Israel lobby is "using all of the strategies in its playbook" to pressure the administration into being aggressive and belligerent with Iran. The bottom line: "Israel's enemies get weakened or overthrown, Israel gets a free hand with the Palestinians, and the United States does most of the fighting, dying, rebuilding and paying."
Several hundred thousand supporters of presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador filled Mexico city's historic central plaza on Sunday to demonstrate their support for a recount of Mexico's disputed July 2 election. The crowds were considerably larger than the last rally and indicated that the movement started by the embattled former mayor of Mexico City remained strong. López Obrador urged his followers to conduct nonviolent acts of civil disobedience, including boycotts of products made by Mexican companies that opposed his candidacy as well as those of some American companies. He also asked them to stage sit-ins starting Sunday at the 300 district election offices across the country. The purpose, he said, was to prevent any tampering with ballot boxes. López Obrador led about 200,000 supporters into the the city's main plaza, where 200,000 more were already waiting.
Articles: 1) Bush, Putin Concerned Iran has Not Responded Reuters July 17, 2006 Filed at 4:07 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-group-bush-putin.html
President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who differ on whether to impose U.N. sanctions on Iran, expressed concern on Monday that Tehran had not responded to an incentives offer. The two leaders made a show of unity in a joint statement declaring their intention to try to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, including in the cases of Iran and North Korea.
2) G8 to Give Trade a Push Amid Strains Over Mideast Reuters Filed at 5:45 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-group.html July 17, 2006
Group of Eight leaders met key developing countries on Monday to give a push to world trade talks at a big-power summit strained by divisions over the Middle East. Meanwhile, the United States squabbled openly with G8 partner France over interpretation of a joint summit declaration that urged Israel to be restrained in its offensive in Lebanon but told Hezbollah to make the first moves to end the crisis. France's Jacques Chirac, who has differed already with Washington by criticizing Israeli action as excessive, said late on Sunday that the G8 was basically calling for a ceasefire. But Washington, Israel's big backer, flatly contradicted him.
3) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa Reuters July 16, 2006 Filed at 9:31 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast1.html
Hizbollah rockets killed eight people in the Israeli city of Haifa on Sunday and bombs shook Beirut as Israel pursued a five-day-old assault in Lebanon aimed at crippling the Shi'ite Muslim group. It was Hizbollah's deadliest rocket strike on Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said it would have ''far-reaching'' consequences for Lebanon. Hizbollah said the attack was retaliation for Israel's killing of civilians and destruction of Lebanese infrastructure.
4) UN's Iran Nuclear Referral "Not Constructive" Reuters July 16, 2006 Filed at 9:48 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-talks.html
Iran said on Sunday sending its nuclear file back to the U.N. Security Council undermined prospects for talks over its atomic dispute with the West.
Iran's case was referred back to the council after Tehran failed to respond to a set of proposals backed by six world powers which called for Tehran to halt uranium enrichment in return for economic and diplomatic incentives.
5) Iran Calls Western Incentives Acceptable Associated Press July 16, 2006 Filed at 1:48 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html
Iran said Sunday that Western incentives to halt its nuclear program were an ''acceptable basis'' for talks, and it is ready for detailed negotiations. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded that Iran should talk directly to negotiators if it wants to discuss the six-nation proposal.
6) Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone The U.S. has blamed the militants' patrons for the Mideast crisis, but some experts aren't sure. Paul Richter, Josh Meyer and Sebastian Rotella Los Angeles Times July 14, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-fg-hezbollah14jul14,1,4958092.story
The Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran and Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers this week. Yet those countries may not have specifically planned and ordered the raid that has brought the Middle East to the edge of war, U.S. officials and terrorism experts say.
7) A Price Inflamed By Fear Up to a Third of Oil's Stunning Ascent Traces to Psychology Steven Mufson Washington Post Friday, July 14, 2006; D01 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/13/AR2006071301686.html
Add this to the costs of political instability and violence around the world: The price of crude oil hit a record yesterday, topping $76 a barrel. Oil prices rose as fighting spread in Lebanon, the standoff continued over Iran's nuclear program and a Nigerian newspaper reported that explosions had rocked two pipelines in the West African nation. Although supplies of oil were virtually unaffected, traders and analysts said anxiety about political violence and tension around the world had once again driven up the "political premium" for oil.
8) Rice: No point in temporary ceasefire Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice backs Israel's military operation in Lebanon; US government says it has agreed to supply Israel with jet fuel to feed its warplanes Yitzhak Benhorin Ynetnews (Yedioth Ahronoth) July 16, 2006, 19:04 http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3276803,00.html
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that for the time being the United States is not interested to assist in negotiating a ceasefire. There is no point in achieving a ceasefire so long as Hizbullah and Hamas are capable of firing rockets at Israel, and by doing so to breach it.
9) Blair and Annan Call for International Force Associated Press July 17, 2006 Filed at 6:59 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Summit-Rdp.html
British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan called Monday for the deployment of international forces to stop Hezbollah from bombing Israel, an issue that has overshadowed the summit of world leaders.
10) Bombs Fall, Missiles Strike, and Death and Life Go On New York Times July 17, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17scene.html
Wartime Reflexes Return, With Anger Jad Mouawad BEIRUT, LEBANON On Sunday, 15 years after Lebanon's civil war, the country woke up to its fifth day of a brutal new conflict. All night, bombs fell on Haret Hreik, south of the capital, flattening buildings and turning the largely empty neighborhood of Hezbollah's headquarters into a modern vision of the blitz. Fighter jets circled high above Beirut and once more bombed the airport. Dark smoke from burning fuel tanks billowed sky high. In southern Lebanon, dozens died in the shelling.
A Long, Lethal Reach, Long Expected Greg Myre HAIFA, ISRAEL The train platform was slick with blood and littered with chunks of fallen roof. Twisted metal dangled from above, and train cars were charred, their windows blown out. On Sunday, Hezbollah fired 10 powerful rockets — a kind it has never unleashed before — and they soared more than 20 miles over Israel's thinly populated north before slamming down in Haifa, a vibrant port city generally known for its good relations between Jews and Arabs. It was a confirmation of something Israeli security chiefs have warned about for years: that Hezbollah has large, powerful rockets able to reach major Israeli cities.
New Dangers to Add to the Old Ones Craig S. Smith BEIT HANUN, GAZA Israeli troops moved back into Gaza on Saturday night, setting up tank positions on the outskirts of Beit Hanun, a crowded town of 35,000 people in the small territory's northeastern corner. Children gathered on the street corners on Sunday, peering around corners for a glimpse of gun-toting militants who darted from building to building as Israeli snipers tried to pick them off.
For Tens of Thousands, a Refuge Yet Again Katherine Zoepf DAMASCUS, SYRIA More than 90,000 people have fled from Lebanon into Syria since the beginning of the Israeli bombardment, Syrian government officials said Sunday. Among them was the family of Hamzeh Diab. The family of five drove out of Beirut's southern suburbs after the nearby airport was bombed Thursday evening, winding through the mountains on small secondary roads. On Sunday, Mr. Diab sat drinking strong Turkish coffee at a cafe with his Syrian second cousin, Ali Diab, a Shiite truck driver who has welcomed the family into his home in the Damascus suburb of Muhajreen.
Government Fervor, and Private Worries Nazila Fathi TEHRAN It is not surprising that Iran's newspapers have denounced Israel for its military actions against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and praised the Iranian government's support for those groups. State-run television and radio have dedicated major parts of their programs and news broadcasts to reports from Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. State television constantly shows images of injured civilians, including children, and the radio broadcasts interviews with Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah.
11) Despite Joint Statement on Mideast, Strains Emerge as U.S. Supports Israel's Campaign Jim Rutenberg New York Times July 17, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17diplo.html
The Bush administration on Sunday appeared to give Israel tacit approval to cripple Hezbollah, casting the widening conflict in the Middle East in terms of a wider war on terrorism.
12) Analysis: Iran the Lurking Mideast Issue Associated Press July 16, 2006 Filed at 6:25 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-All-About-Iran.html
CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- The past five days' shocking flare-up of Mideast violence may really be, beneath it all, a fight about Iran and its place in the region. While Israel, the United States and some Arab countries hope the Islamic regime suffers a blow, Tehran may count on emerging from the crisis with its power intact and its influence raised even higher.
13) Militia Rebuked by Some Arab Countries Hassan M. Fattah New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17arab.html July 17, 2006
With the battle between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah raging, key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming Hezbollah, underscoring in part their growing fear of influence by the group's main sponsor, Iran. Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts" at an emergency Arab League summit meeting in Cairo on Saturday.
14) Oil on Rise Toward $78 After Mideast Violence Reuters July 17, 2006 Filed at 2:59 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil pushed toward record highs on Monday after a weekend of worsening conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas unnerved traders who fear the violence could escalate and spread across the oil-producing Middle East.
15) The Real Aim Uri Avnery Gush Shalom July 15, 2006 http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1152991173/
THE REAL aim is to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government. That was the aim of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It failed. But Sharon and his pupils in the military and political leadership have never really given up on it. As in 1982, the present operation, too, was planned and is being carried out in full coordination with the US. As then, there is no doubt that it is coordinated with a part of the Lebanese elite. That's the main thing. Everything else is noise and propaganda.
16) A Beautiful Friendship? In search of the truth about the Israel lobby's influence on Washington Glenn Frankel Washington Post Magazine Sunday, July 16, 2006; Page W13 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201627.html
It's not that Olmert is a more commanding figure than Ben-Gurion. Far from it. No, it's about power. And not just Israeli power. It's really about the perceived power of the Israel lobby, a collection of American Jewish organizations, campaign contributors and think tanks -- aided by Christian conservatives and other non-Jewish supporters -- that arose over the second half of the 20th century and that sees as a principle goal the support and promotion of the interests of the state of Israel.
17) Crowds Rally Again to Demand Recount in Mexico Ginger Thompson New York Times July 17, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/americas/17mexico.html
MEXICO CITY, July 16 — For the second time in eight days, thousands of supporters of the leftist presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, filled this city's historic central plaza to demonstrate their support for his demand for a vote-by-vote recount of Mexico's disputed July 2 election. The crowds at this rally — several hundred thousand — were considerably larger than the last and seemed to indicate that the movement started by the embattled former mayor of Mexico City remained strong.
18) Mexico Leftist to Launch Civil Resistance Reuters July 16, 2006 Filed at 5:50 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Backed by hundreds of thousands of followers, the leftist who lost Mexico's presidential vote vowed on Sunday to launch a civil resistance campaign to protest at fraud and force a recount.
--- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy