[lbo-talk] how Hillary could win

ravi gadfly at exitleft.org
Wed Jul 19 09:13:43 PDT 2006


At around 19/7/06 7:46 am, W. Kiernan wrote:
> Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:
>>
>> As long as Democrats (or any left-of-the-centre party) cannot
>> provide an alternative to neo-liberalism that is attractive
>> to the upwardly oriented middle class - they will keep losing
>> elections.
>
> The median family income in the U.S.A. is stagnant at about $45,000.
> Meanwhile the prices of many of the basics this family needs or wants -
> a house to live in, gas for the car, a college education for their
> otherwise career-doomed children - continue to skyrocket up out of
> reach. Do you think the median voter actually thinks of himself as
> "upwardly mobile"?
>

Noting that Woj wrote "upwardly oriented" and not "upwardly mobile", yes, I think the case can be made, however mistaken the perception might be. A Pew Research Center survey (Oct 6-10, 2005) found for example 50% of the population thinks the country is not divided into "haves" and "have-nots", but if it is, then 47% think they are in the "haves" category (to only 38% who think not). You could argue that this is just humility on the part of the public but I am not sure that is convincing.

Also, Gallup (Jan 20-22, 2003): 33% think they are already, or are likely to become to be[come] rich, which is defined by them as $120,000 p.a (median) and $1,000,000 total assets (median income).

33% is less than the 66% that consider this unlikely, but I believe an income of $120,000 puts you in the 90th percentile of income (or in that ballpark) and I am not sure there is enough mobility (and volatility) to justify the optimism that the 33% feel that [at least a significant number of them] can reach that top 10-15% mark. And the $1 million in assets, I am guessing, will make that a bit more difficult.

I am reminded of a story that Joanna (Hope you had a great trip!) told me about talking to a man in a crumbling and empty apartment about socialism or unions, at which point he interrupted her to indignantly point out that he was not a communist but a capitalist (though she could see scant evidence of his 'capital').

A sort of general pessimism about the economy and the state of affairs (expressed in similar polls) seems to paradoxically co-exist with a personal optimism about one's one future (and I guess capabilities).

I think at the edges of the neo-liberal model there is room for criticism and discontent (a sudden disappearance of IT jobs to India that left a BMW driving 29 year old in 2001 without a job by 2003), but it does not threaten the hold that the model has on that particular large segment (not just the BMW guy, but the large chunk of the middle class that Woj identifies).

--ravi

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