In this issue: 1) United States to Israel: you have one more week to blast Hizbullah 2) Israel Violates Law on U.S. Weapons in Mideast 3) An Embodiment of Iran's Long Shadow: Missiles for Hezbollah 4) U.S. Appears to Be Waiting to Act on Israeli Airstrikes 5) With Israeli Use of Force, Debate Over Proportion 6) U.S. Seeks Mideast Truce That Will Last 7) Iran's Hizbollah Says Ready to Attack US, Israel 8) Turkey Signals It's Prepared to Enter Iraq 9) Evacuations Underway in Beirut 10) End the Slow-Motion Diplomacy 11) Bush Supports Israel's Move Against Hezbollah 12) Mexican Leftist Warns of Unrest, Fox Denies Fraud
Summary: The US is giving Israel a window of a week to inflict maximum damage on Hizbullah before weighing in behind international calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, according to British, European and Israeli sources, the Guardian reports. The Bush administration, backed by Britain, has blocked efforts for an immediate halt to the fighting. "It's clear the Americans have given the Israelis the green light. They will be allowed to go on longer, perhaps for another week," a senior European official said. British PM Blair resisted demands in parliament that he call for a ceasefire. He also indicated it might take many months to agree the terms of a UN stabilisation force on the Lebanese border. British officials privately acknowledged the US had given Israel a green light to continue bombing Lebanon until it believes Hizbullah's infrastructure has been destroyed. But Kim Howells, a UK Foreign Office minister, explicitly called for the US to rein in Israel. "I very much hope the Americans will be putting pressure on the Israelis to stop as quickly as possible." he said.
Israel is in violation of U.S. arms control laws for deploying U.S.-made fighter planes, combat helicopters and missiles to kill civilians and destroy Lebanon's infrastructure, Inter Press Service reports. "Section 4 of the (U.S.) Arms Export Control Act requires that military items transferred to foreign governments by the United States be used solely for internal security and legitimate self-defense," says Stephen Zunes, a professor at the University of San Francisco. "Since Israeli attacks against Lebanon's civilian infrastructure and population centers clearly go beyond legitimate self-defense, the United States is legally obliged to suspend arms transfers to Israel," Zunes told IPS.
The New York Times reports that action on a resolution at the UN Security Council critical of Iran for failing to suspend its uranium enrichment activities is on hold. Iran's defense of Hizbollah has convinced the US that Iran is fueling the crisis to project power. "The American president says Hezbollah should be disarmed," Iran's leader Khamenei said, "but it will not happen." Iran's former president Khatami, who tried to moderate Iran's foreign policy, likened Hezbollah to "a shining sun that illuminates and warms the hearts of all Muslims and supporters of freedom." The most significant recent change in Iranian support for Hezbollah is its transfer of longer-range rockets that can be fired into major Israeli cities, according to an analysis by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Despite its oratory, Iran is positioning itself for a role in resolving the crisis. Iran's foreign minister said a cease-fire and an exchange of prisoners would be a possible way forward. Some analysts of Iran's backing for Hezbollah are restrained in their conclusions of Iran's role. "Iran will certainly benefit from Hezbollah strikes," Cordesman wrote. But "Until there are hard facts, Iran's role in all this is a matter of speculation, and conspiracy theories are not facts or news."
The outlines of an American-Israeli consensus began to emerge in which Israel would continue to bombard Lebanon for another week or so to degrade the capabilities of the Hezbollah militia, the New York Times reports. Then, Secretary of State Rice would go to the region and seek to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and perhaps an international force to monitor Lebanon's borders and prevent Hezbollah from obtaining more rockets for bombarding Israel. American officials signaled that Rice was waiting at least a few more days, in part to give Israel more time to weaken Hezbollah. The strategy carries risk, partly because it remains unclear just how long the rest of the world, particularly America's Arab allies, will remain silent as the toll on Lebanese civilians rises.
Lebanese prime minister Siniora criticized the world for not stopping the Israeli offensive. "The international community is not doing all that it can in order to stop Israel continuing its aggression against Lebanon," Siniora said. "They are stopping short of exercising the necessary pressure on Israel, while Israel is taking this as a green light." He accused Israel of "committing massacres against Lebanese civilians and working to destroy everything that allows Lebanon to stay alive." Siniora said that he supported the release of the two Israeli soldiers. But he also said any solution to the crisis should include Israel's withdrawal from the disputed Shebaa Farms area of the border, the release of Lebanese detainees in Israeli jails and a return to the terms of the 1949 armistice between the two countries. He suggested the Lebanese Army would move to southern Lebanon once these conditions were met. He backed the idea of a more robust international force, but only after "all the issues" were put on the table. Egypt's Foreign Minister said, ''A cease-fire is imperative.We have to bring it to an end as soon as possible.''
More civilians were killed in Israeli air strikes, at least 19, according to the AP, while the BBC put the total at 40, and Reuters at 50. Reuters reported that 12 Lebanese civilians, including several children, were killed and 30 people were wounded when Israeli jets bombed several houses in Srifa. Israeli forces also made their biggest incursion into the Gaza Strip in days, sending tanks into a refugee camp, where fighting lead to the deaths of nine Palestinians, officials said. Some 500,000 Lebanese have fled their homes to escape the violence, the UN estimated. Israel said it is aiming only at Hezbollah and not the Lebanese Army, although attacks on Monday and Tuesday killed 19 Lebanese soldiers. While the Israelis say they have chosen their targets, about 1,000 so far, with great care, their attacks seem to be spread almost randomly across the country. Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Beirut's main Christian enclave on Wednesday, a short distance from where hundreds of U.S. citizens were boarding a cruise ship chartered to evacuate them to the nearby island of Cyprus.
Hezbollah rockets again hit Haifa, the port city in northern Israel, and Nahariya, a coastal town just south of the border, where one man died and several were wounded, one critically. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis continued to spend their time in shelters, and Haifa was largely shut down, with only grocery stores and pharmacies open. More than 130 rockets were fired, Israeli officials said.
Some Americans in Beirut have been critical of the U.S. evacuation effort in Lebanon, pointing out that many European countries moved more quickly. A State Department spokesman said that Rice had decided to reverse a policy that required Americans being evacuated to sign a document promising to reimburse the government for the cost of their transport.
Israeli air attacks on civilian infrastructure like power plants, electricity transformers, airports, bridges, highways and government buildings, have led to accusations by France and the EU that Israel is guilty of "disproportionate use of force" in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and of "collective punishment" of the civilian populations, the New York Times reports. Referring to complaints that Israel was using disproportionate force, Israel's United Nations ambassador said, "You're damn right we are…If your cities were shelled the way ours were," he said, "you would use much more force than we are or we ever will." Raji Sourani, a Gazan lawyer who directs the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, said "What Israel is doing in Gaza now has nothing to do with the captured soldier. I don't think bridges, power stations or airports have anything to do with the soldier. I don't think denying access for goods and people has anything to do with the soldier, or denying medicine, or bombarding one of the world's most densely populated areas by day and night."
Iran's Hizbollah, which claims links to the Lebanese group of the same name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to attack Israeli and U.S. interests worldwide."We have 2,000 volunteers who have registered since last year,'' said Iranian Hizbollah's spokesman. "We are ready to dispatch them to every corner of the world to jeopardise Israel and America's interests. We are only waiting for the Supreme Leader's green light to take action. If America wants to ignite World War Three ... we welcome it,'' he said. Iranian religious organisations have made great public show of recruiting volunteers for "martyrdom-seeking operations'' in recent years, usually threatening U.S. interests in case of any attack against the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. But there is no record of an Iranian volunteer from these recruitment campaigns taking part in an attack. Despite Iranian Hizbollah's insistence that it takes orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei, government ministries say Hizbollah does not implement official policy. Iran's government has said it hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. While Iran did fund and support Lebanese Hizbollah during the 1980s, Tehran says it has not contributed troops or weapons in the latest violence.
Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there. Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week. Diplomats cautioned the increasingly aggressive Turkish statements were likely aimed at calming public anger and pressing the U.S. and Iraq to act against the Turkish Kurdish guerrillas. But they also said Turkish politicians and military officers could act if nothing is done. American officials have repeatedly warned Turkey against entering northern Iraq.
David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, calls for an end to the "slow-motion diplomacy" of the United States. The Bush administration's passivity is inexplicable. The world is waiting for robust American diplomacy; instead we see a tongue-tied superpower. Israeli officials talk of breaking the Shiite militia. That goal is almost certain to fail. Israel tried something similar in 1982, only to be pinned down by Hezbollah's resistance movement and forced to retreat. Only a compulsive gambler would think the odds are better now. Rather than bringing positive change, military action in the Middle East tends to bring unanticipated consequences. If the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah stretches to weeks and even months, how long will it be before the United States faces a Shiite insurgency in Iraq, which would almost certainly spell a decisive American defeat there? And, ominously, CIA and FBI officials are said to be hearing increased "chatter" about new terrorist attacks in America. Analysts often cite Chamberlain's policy of appeasement that emboldened the Nazis. But it's also worth considering the lesson of 1914, in which the world slipped toward a war that could have been avoided had statesmen escaped the lock-step chain of action and response.
Some U.S. military and intelligence officials said they were puzzled by Israel's strategy and concerned that its goals are unrealistic, the Washington Post reports. Israel has "target packages" but no viable long-term strategy, a senior U.S. official said. There is limited reason to believe that either Hezbollah or Hamas can be compelled to give up their Israeli prisoners or end the attacks. Others questioned the impact on the Lebanese government and the very military force Israel hopes will eventually take over the areas now under Hezbollah's control. "Won't Israeli military actions have the effect of decreasing the already limited capacities of the Lebanese government?" asked retired Army Col. Andrew Bacevich. "Going after Hezbollah makes sense, but I just don't understand the rationale for the campaign as it is being conducted." But retired Israeli army Col. Gal Luft said, "Israel is attempting to create a rift between the Lebanese population and Hezbollah supporters by exacting a heavy price from the elite in Beirut. The message is: If you want your air conditioning to work and if you want to be able to fly to Paris for shopping, you must pull your head out of the sand and take action toward shutting down Hezbollah-land." Other specialists in security strategy said that Israel is sending messages to several audiences, telling the people of Lebanon that the attack is the price of tolerating the Hezbollah's presence and the broader Arab world that its current response is the price of provoking Israel.
Mexican President Fox rejected claims on Tuesday of fraud in Mexico's election to replace him. Fox had stayed out of the growing dispute about the election, but he finally weighed in on Tuesday during a visit to Spain. "In Mexico, there is no electoral fraud. Never,'' Fox told a small group of demonstrators protesting the alleged vote-rigging. Fox was ridiculed by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the candidate who says election results that showed him losing by about 0.6 percentage points are bogus. Lopez Obrador said the president was living in a world of his own, which he called ``Foxilandia.'' Lopez Obrador again warned on Tuesday of unrest if all the ballots are not counted again. "If we want political, economic and social stability, the votes must be counted,'' he said. An opinion poll released on Tuesday showed about 56 percent of Mexicans think the election was clean but 35 percent believe there was fraud.
Articles:
1) United States to Israel: you have one more week to blast Hizbullah Ewen MacAskill, Simon Tisdall and Patrick Wintour The Guardian Wednesday July 19, 2006 http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1823817,00.html
The US is giving Israel a window of a week to inflict maximum damage on Hizbullah before weighing in behind international calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, according to British, European and Israeli sources.
2) Israel Violates Law on U.S. Weapons in Mideast Thalif Deen Inter Press Service Tuesday, July 18, 2006 http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33993
UNITED NATIONS - Israel is in violation of U.S. arms control laws for deploying U.S.-made fighter planes, combat helicopters and missiles to kill civilians and destroy Lebanon's infrastructure in the ongoing six-day devastation of that militarily-weak country.
3) An Embodiment of Iran's Long Shadow: Missiles for Hezbollah Elaine Sciolino New York Times July 19, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19iran.html
PARIS, July 18 — Iran's support for Hezbollah's actions against Israel seems to have a twofold purpose: to deflect attention from Tehran's impasse with the United States and five other nations over its nuclear program, and to further position itself as a powerful regional player.
4) U.S. Appears to Be Waiting to Act on Israeli Airstrikes Helene Cooper And Steven Erlanger New York Times July 19, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19cnd-mideast.html
WASHINGTON, July 19 — The outlines of an American-Israeli consensus began to emerge on Tuesday, in which Israel would continue to bombard Lebanon for another week or so to degrade the capabilities of the Hezbollah militia, officials of the two countries said.
5) With Israeli Use of Force, Debate Over Proportion Steven Erlanger New York Times July 19, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19israel.html
JERUSALEM, July 18 — The asymmetry in the reported death tolls is marked and growing: some 230 Lebanese dead, most of them civilians, to 25 Israeli dead, 13 of them civilians. In Gaza, one Israel soldier has died from his own army's fire, and 103 Palestinians have been killed, 70 percent of them militants.
6) U.S. Seeks Mideast Truce That Will Last Associated Press July 19, 2006 Filed at 7:35 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-Mideast.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration is not yielding to international calls for a prompt cease-fire to end Israel's devastating campaign against Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
7) Iran's Hizbollah Says Ready to Attack US, Israel Reuters July 18, 2006 Filed at 10:05 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-iran-hizbollah.html
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Hizbollah, which claims links to the Lebanese group of the same name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to attack Israeli and U.S. interests worldwide.
8) Turkey Signals It's Prepared to Enter Iraq Associated Press July 18, 2006 Filed at 3:24 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Turkey-Kurds.html
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there -- a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.
9) Evacuations Underway in Beirut Israel Continues Deadly Airstrikes; Hezbollah Fires Scores of Rockets Anthony Shadid, Edward Cody and Debbi Wilgoren Washington Post Wednesday, July 19, 2006; 9:42 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/19/AR2006071900546.html
BEIRUT, July 19 -- Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Beirut's main Christian enclave on Wednesday, a short distance from where hundreds of U.S. citizens were boarding a cruise ship chartered to evacuate them to the nearby island of Cyprus.
10) End the Slow-Motion Diplomacy David Ignatius Washington Post Wednesday, July 19, 2006; A19 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801378.html
A week ago the United States was struggling with two wars: the one it was fighting in Iraq and the one it hoped to avoid against Iran by maintaining a solid coalition to stop its nuclear program. Then came Hezbollah's kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and the ferocious Israeli response, and, as strategists in Tehran must have anticipated, this third war complicated America's strategy on the other two fronts.
11) Bush Supports Israel's Move Against Hezbollah Robin Wright and Thomas E. Ricks Washington Post Wednesday, July 19, 2006; A10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801436.html
In blunt language, President Bush yesterday endorsed Israel's campaign to cripple or eliminate Hezbollah, charged that Syria is trying to reassert control of Lebanon, and called for the isolation of Iran.
12) Mexican Leftist Warns of Unrest, Fox Denies Fraud Kieran Murray Reuters July 18, 2006 Filed at 6:44 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - President Vicente Fox rejected claims on Tuesday of fraud in Mexico's election to replace him but the leftist who claims he was robbed of victory warned of unrest if all the votes are not recounted.
-- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org