Floods could push North Korea back into famine http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-07-20T112749Z_01_SEO354764_RTRUKOC_0_US-KOREA-NORTH-FOOD.xml&archived=False
Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:27am ET
By Jon Herskovitz
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea, constantly battling food shortages, could be tipped into famine after heavy flooding this month in key farming regions hit its potato and rice crops, experts said on Thursday.
Two major storms over the past 10 days have hit the impoverished country with some of the heaviest rainfalls in years just as it faces greater international isolation over missile tests this month and the prospect of less food aid from its major donor, South Korea.
"Conditions have never been that good in North Korea and this could push them over the edge again," said Peter Beck, an expert in Korean affairs for the International Crisis Group.
"This has increased the probability of a famine returning to North Korea," he said.
Up to 2.5 million North Koreans, or about 10 percent of its population, died in the 1990s due to famines caused by droughts, flooding and mismanagement of the agriculture sector, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) said studies have indicated.
Anthony Banbury, director of the WFP's Regional Bureau for Asia said the floods hurt the potato crop, which is used as a filler until the rice crop comes in.
The floods will also likely hurt rice production and come with the North already short of fertilizer.
"There is a real risk that this combination of factors is going to have a very negative impact on the food security situation in the coming months," Banbury said by telephone from Bangkok.
He said Pyongyang's main benefactor China probably shipped North Korea far less food in the first quarter of this year than it did in the same period of last year.
South Korea has sent huge amounts of rice and fertilizer aid to North Korea over the past several years. But it has rejected the North's latest request for 500,000 tons for rice for this year, unless Pyongyang returns to stalled talks on ending its nuclear weapons programs.
Beck said if North Korea faces a real humanitarian crisis, it would be difficult for South Korea and other countries not to donate food. Even in a good year, North Korea's harvest falls about 1 million tons short of its needs, experts have said.
FLOODING IN RICE BASKET
The Red Cross said floods struck North Korea's South Pyongan province and Hwanghae province. Both surround the capital Pyongyang and are part of the country's rice basket.
"Extensive areas of arable fields have been inundated, wiping out much of the anticipated harvest," the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said this week.
South Korean Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok told reporters on Thursday that Seoul is sticking by its decision to suspend food aid for now. He added South Korea will still push for peaceful engagement with its neighbor.
Ties between the two Koreas, which have warmed considerably in recent years, have been severely tested by the missile tests. North Korea stormed out of a cabinet-level meeting last week after Seoul pressed Pyongyang to explain why it defied international warnings by firing seven missiles on July 5.
Severe winters keep North Korea to a single food producing season that runs from June to October.
Even then, it has a difficult time raising food because of outdated and dilapidated farm equipment, energy shortages and a lack of fertilizer and pesticide.
(With additional reporting by Kang Shinhye and Jang Sera in Seoul and Lindsay Beck in Beijing)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.