On Jul 23, 2006, at 12:25 PM, Doug Henwood wrote:
> [I know this has come up before but I don't remember the answer -
> who's Debka exactly and are they at all reliable?]
>
> <http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1188>
>
> Washington Expected an IDF Grand Slam to Dispose of Hizballah
> DEBKAfile Special Report
>
> July 23, 2006, 6:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
>
> US officials are not yet saying so out loud, but in private and "on
> condition of anonymity," White House circles are signaling
> disappointment.
>
> It arises from the expectation that the Israeli Defense Forces, the
> most effective Middle East army, would dispose of Hassan Nasrallah
> and his Hizballah in a few days, presenting the Bush administration
> and Sunni Muslim Arab rulers with a dearly hoped-for smash victory
> against Islamic fundamentalist terrorists. Now, after 12 days of
> Israeli air, sea and ground assaults, it is beginning to look as
> though it will take a long, sustained effort to break Hizballah.
>
> Therefore, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is coming to the
> Middle East Monday, July 24, brandishing a whip in the form of an
> implied deadline. She will assess the situation at close hand, talk
> to allies in Rome Wednesday and go back to Washington after setting
> a date to return in the week beginning July 30.
>
> A really quick, crushing victory over the Hizballah could be
> achieved by the landing of American forces in northern Lebanon – at
> the invitation of the Beirut government. Nasrallah's forces could
> then be strangled between US forces and the Israeli army coming up
> from the south.
>
> But this is not on the cards for the simple reason that America is
> willing to fight in Lebanon to the last Israeli soldier, just as
> Iran is ready to fight to the last Hizballah combatant. Israel must
> beware of being hustled into taking imprudent steps by the proxy
> contest between the Washington and Tehran. Israel and its armed
> forces must pursue their own national agenda which is to cripple
> the Hizballah and inflict a defeat on Tehran, both of whom are
> sworn to destroy the Jewish state. It is necessary for Israeli
> commanders to proceed cautiously and set a pace that is
> commensurate with their military capabilities. Their best fighting
> men must not be place needlessly in harm's way and Lebanese
> civilian casualties have to be avoided as far as possible in a
> situation in which Hizballah stores its men and weapons in domestic
> cellars, kitchens and banana groves. Above all, Israel must beware
> of being drawn into tailoring its arduous and dangerous campaign to
> the pressures of Washington's disappointment. After four years in
> Iraq, US forces know the score and understand the challenges
> besetting Israel.
>
> On Day Twelve of the war, Israel faces two major tactical
> difficulties:
>
> 1. The enemy the IDF is pursuing is not a regular army which moves
> divisions around, but a small militia of 4,000 hardened, highly
> trained jihadist guerrillas, who have reduced their offensive
> against Israel to two simple tactics: shooting rockets at
> population centers and lying in wait for a chance to take Israeli
> troops unawares.
>
> It therefore behooves Israeli forces, which Saturday, July 22,
> launched a large-scale offensive to sanitize South Lebanon, to beat
> Hizballah at the game of catching the opposition unawares. There is
> no doubt that the Israeli army is badly in need of a success – and
> not only to impress the Americans. Israel's home front, though
> solidly behind its servicemen, needs to be assured that the war is
> on course and will be fought "until the job is finished." This is
> the mantra heard up and down Israel, most insistently from the one-
> third of the population taking the punishment of lives lost or
> disrupted and homes destroyed by daily rocket attacks, with very
> little complaint.
>
> This assurance is beginning to wear thin as the Hizballah rocket
> blitz intensifies day by day. Saturday, they shot a record 160
> rockets at dozens of towns and communities. Sunday, July 23, the
> ball bearings packed in the Katyusha warheads punched hundreds of
> holes in a car and a workshop, killing two men on the spot. Sirens
> were heard for the first time in Binyamina, Zichron Yaacov and Kfar
> Ada, 70 km from the Lebanese border and the deepest south yet. The
> buildings of Israel's third largest city, Haifa, and many other
> towns of northern Israel, are severely battered and bear the scars
> of blasts which scatter the metal balls designed to maximize human
> injuries.
>
> The week's grace that Rice appears to be granting the Israeli
> government and armed forces for bringing the war to a successful
> conclusion is also a boon for Tehran, Syria and Hizballlah. It
> gives them time to engineer a nasty surprise to greet the US
> secretary's second visit, hitting Israel at the very moment that
> the diplomats weigh in to start the process for ending hostilities.
> Israel will then be told to hold back on reprisals. This dead-end
> maneuver will be painfully familiar to the many peacemakers who
> tried their luck with the Palestinians, notably Condoleezza Rice's
> predecessor, Colon Powell.
>
> While Syrian officials angle for direct talks with the United
> States and call for a ceasefire, Damascus is preparing to step into
> the war. Damascus is preparing to step into the war. Syrian
> information minister Mohsein Bilal warned Sunday, July 23, that
> Syria will join the conflict if Israeli ground forces in Lebanon
> approach the Syrian border. But Bashar Assad also prefers to hide
> behind the back of a proxy. The ruling Syrian Baath suddenly
> "discovered" Sunday a new organization called the "Front for the
> Liberation of Golan," claiming it launched its first attack last
> Thursday, July 20, on an Israeli army post. It was said to have
> killed 8 Israeli soldiers and taken two hostages to be held in
> Syria against the release of Golan Druzes in Israeli jails. The
> tale is made of whole cloth, but it is a straw that shows which way
> the wind is blowing in Damascus.
>
> Neither Damascus nor Tehran – and certainly not the Hizballah -
> have any intention of leaving the diplomatic initiative in the
> hands of the US secretary of state. They will do their utmost to
> stay one step ahead of any American-led steps and keep Israeli
> forces from running away with a victory. The way events are going
> now, both the Americans and Israelis will soon be confronted with
> the necessity to cut both Syria and Iran down to size.
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