[lbo-talk] Rep victory in CA-50: Reps to keep the House?

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Wed Jun 7 10:35:40 PDT 2006


Jim Devine:

Sheet! I guess I have to register as a Democrat, because as a Peace & Freedom voter, I wasn't allowed to vote for Winograd against Harman. The electoral system is totally biased against third parties and in favor of the two-party duopoly: in California, some of the biggest issues are settled in the DP primary. But then again, nothing is _really_ settled by elections.

[WS:] Gee, I am surprised that you registered as a third party. It makes no sense whatsoever. You may vote for a third party to make a statement, but registering for one prevents you from voting in the primaries, where progressive candidates actually stand a chance. So it makes no sense not to be able to support progressive democrats in the primaries and then complain about conservative leaning of democrats.

I am also having second thoughts about the received wisdom that the US electoral system is biased against third parties. Yes, I used to take that for granted, but now I am inclined to think that in reality such parties have about the same chance as in the parliamentary/PR system - i.e. as coalition partners. The main difference is that in the US coalitions are formed before the elections, mainly during the primaries, whereas in the parliamentary system - after.

Putting it differently, radical "third" parties have zero chance to form a majority government alone about anywhere in the world. Their only chance is to be a coalition partner with a major party to tip the balance. The coalition can be formed after the election e.g. to form a majoritarian government (in parliamentary systems), or it can be formed before the election to muster enough votes to win the majority in the election (the US system). Therefore, the major US parties are de facto coalitions akin to coalitions in the parliamentary system.

With the above in mind, a "fringe" third party (left or right) has about the same political clout in the US system as it does under the parliamentary system. It is only the logistics or exercising that clout that are different.

I may also add that the Repugs grasped that principle and mastered that logistics quite well when they formed a "voting bloc" with fringe right wing and x-tian factions. This is, imho, the secret behind them wiping the floor with Democrats since the mid 1990 and the reason why they will likely do it again in 2006 and 2008. The left, otoh, seems to be clueless and still dreaming of doing it alone and sniping at their potential coalition partners for not being sufficiently radical.

Wojtek



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