Dems slipping in state races By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The political landscape has gotten friendlier for congressional Democrats over the past six months, but the party's prospects for scoring big gains in governors' races now look more difficult.
In some cases, the same concerns that are costing congressional Republicans — and raising Democrats' hopes of gaining control of the House or Senate — are hurting Democratic governors in November's races.
In Michigan, Gov. Jennifer Granholm — the darling of Democrats when she was elected in 2002 — is now in a dead heat with Republican challenger Dick DeVos. A statewide poll last month by EPIC-MRA put him at 46%, her at 45%. Last fall, she had held a 23-point lead.
"Michiganders are furious at life, so they're furious at the governor," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. DeVos, former president of Amway, has been airing TV ads since February that tap voters' discontent over the state's direction and its battered economy. The state has the nation's second-highest unemployment rate, after Mississippi.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle is increasingly vulnerable, in part because of ethics controversies in his administration. In a statewide Strategic Vision poll in April, Doyle was at 45%; U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Republican hopeful, was at 43%.
"At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were expected to make significant gains," says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks governors' races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "Now they will likely make gains, but they won't be nearly what was originally thought."
Among the nation's 10 biggest states, Democratic prospects since the beginning of the year have gotten tougher in four — California, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and better in one, New York.
Jon Summers of the Democratic Governors Association acknowledges that Democrats' high expectations in some states have been tempered. But he says prospects have improved elsewhere, including Arkansas and Colorado, both now rated as toss-ups. "There has been some give and take," he says.
The GOP has more governorships at risk this year. Among 36 races on the ballot, 22 are for Republican-held seats, 14 for Democratic-held ones.
Since 1994, Republicans have held a majority of governorships — now 28 states to Democrats' 22. Democrats hope to turn that around this year by picking up at least four of them.
That's important because governors often lead the way for their parties in shaping innovative policies on issues such as health care and immigration. They typically build statewide political organizations that can help in presidential elections. And the position is the favored launch pad for the White House: Four of the last five presidents first served as governors.
There are some bright spots for Democrats. New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is favored to win a governorship that has been in Republican hands for 12 years. Former Massachusetts governor William Weld's exit from the New York race last week removed Spitzer's strongest potential opponent.
Then there's California, the nation's biggest prize.
Last fall, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's standing had crashed. After shifting staff and strategy, though, his ratings are on the rise. State Treasurer Phil Angelides won the Democratic nomination in last week's primary, but the hard-fought intraparty battle has left some scars.
In a statewide Field Poll two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46%-39%. In October, the governor trailed the treasurer by 6 percentage points. "I do think that today it's Schwarzenegger's to lose," says political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California.