[lbo-talk] violent crime up

[Matt]

On Wed, Jun 14, 2006 at 12:43:55PM -0700, Miles Jackson wrote:
> Doug Henwood wrote:
>
> >Destined? No. More likely than an otherwise similiarly situated  
> >foreigner? Probably yes. That's how statistical models work. Weren't  
> >you just complaining about bad statistics?
>
> I have to agree: what's with this naive reasoning about causality?  This 
> reminds me of some students' reactions when I talk about the 
> experimental research on the effects of exposure to aggressive role 
> models: we know, as well as scientific research can demonstrate, that 
> exposure to aggressive role models causes an increase in aggressive 
> behavior in children.  I'll get some students who protest: "not all 
> children act aggressively when they're exposed to an aggressive role 
> model!" as if this is a meaningful counterargument.  Like most human 
> social behavior, aggression is determined by multiple factors, ranging 
> from biological to cultural.  To assume any one of these is the crucial 
> or necessary component is dubious; however, Jordan's view--if some gun 
> owners aren't aggressive, availability of guns couldn't possibly 
> increase aggression--is equally dubious.

Wait, "some" is what is dubious.  Aren't we concerned about "some"
when it means "an overwhelming majority".  An overwhelming majority
of gun owners are never going to be violent criminals at all, not just
never going to *shoot* someone.  I think Jordan's point is that the
case hasn't been made that the legit question - why is the US so
violent - validly leaps to "well there's all those guns".  It seems to
be just an arm-waving argument.

This is relevant if one is concerned with actually impacting how USers
vote.  300 million gun owners makes them a huge demographic and to be
this completely out of touch with what those working-class people are
thinking is one of the reasons it is amusing to see people scratch
their heads wondering why working-class people vote against their
economic interests over silly "values".  To a lot of those people
their "gun rights" are a core value and being on the correct side to
them is a core issue and impacts their voting.

Alas, if purity of thought is more important than pragmatism then
carry on with the gun ownership->violent crime rhetoric.

Matt

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