I say, in the movies Iraq as electoral winner just might work but not in real life. GWB's plummeting ratings got a dead-cat bounce (as they say on Wall St.) from the death of Zarqawi, but in the longer-term the Republicans are doomed, doomed, doomed, no matter how feeble the Dems may seem now.
The Vietnam war had such a dazzling succession of "lights at the end of the tunnel" it sometimes seemed like a strobe show. But none of these had any but lasting effect in reviving public support for the war or its advocates.
Carl