[lbo-talk] The very worst custodians of empire

Dwayne Monroe idoru345 at yahoo.com
Mon Jun 26 09:58:57 PDT 2006


Ravi:

Again, seriously: IIRC it wasn't immediately after the war, but for quite a bit of time, that the Iraqis expressed a preference for American troops to stay. As a guy on the Leonard Lopate show (was it Reickoff?) pointed out the other day, the Iraqis are stuck between a rock and a hard place. To adopt the Bush camp's phraseology: "Bring the troops back", "Pull out now", sound to me more like slogans than a real plan (why not instead "Blue helmets now"?). I find appalling the response I have heard from the left, to the question of the danger of outright civil war or chaos, that the Iraqis will figure it out for themselves.

==========================

When I think about Iraq - which is very often - I try to be as precise as possible. It's easy to allow dreams of how things should be, or how we wise they were to muddy our opinions.

....

If news reports/on-scence interviews from the early post-invasion period are a reliable record, Iraqis who were originally in favor of a prolonged American presence hoped two things would be accomplished:

* The Americans would help restore (and enhance) basic services - power, water, social services, etc.

* American forces would ensure day-to-day security

Time passed; it became clear the Iraq rebuilding project was only a funds-transfer mechanism from the U.S. Treasury to essentially oversight-free contracting firms (see, for example, Naomi Klein's Harpers published essay "Iraq: Year Zero" - Google it). It also became devastatingly obvious the American's primary security concern was protecting themselves from guerrilla action. Into their M1s, Humvees and Cobras they go, firing in all directions when attacked. Innocents are as likely (perhaps more likely) to die as combatants as the uranium tipped ammo flies.

With reconstruction a cruel joke and American bullets and bombs a constant threat to life and limb (and the Americans themselves a draw for well armed, highly motivated Baathists, jihadis and just plain pissed off Iraqis) enthusiasm - such as it was - for U.S. presence melted away.

Polls of Iraqis reflected this change - correspondingly, opinions changed amongst some anti-war folk in the U.S. who once argued for Americans to stay for security reasons.

Now, the argument is for the UN or, perhaps, a pan Arab force to step into the void the Americans would leave.

Let's think about the tactical issues.

...

After three years of prolonged warfare, a cadre of combat professionals has emerged. These are the people who coordinate attacks on American helicopters, tanks and supply convoys. Despite the bravado American troops show on domestic television ("they can't hit the broad side of a barn" is a popular statement) the fact is that these Iraqis have staged an extremely effective guerrilla war (really, it's textbook in its surgical efficiency, whatever the setbacks might be).

They have years of weapons stored away, can get whatever they don't have from the underground market and have demonstrated the ability to operate at battalion level strength when air suppression isn't a concern.

Any military dropping into Iraq must be prepared to confront this force. The UN would not have the air power at its disposal the Americans deploy (from both bases and carriers) and would likely find themselves in more or less evenly matched contests with their foes. There would be many casualties. Enthusiasm for the mission would crumble in the countries providing the Blue Helmet force.

A pan-Arab peace-keeping force might fare better. But if not, its ability to speak the language and understand local customs would be little help if the jihadis and guerrillas and their supporters in the wider population turned against them.

..

There is really only one way out: all parties must be brought into a negotiating framework. This includes people we don't necessarily admire (such as al Sadr) but is necessary because the alternative - suppression via military power - has failed. The most powerful (if not exactly the best) military in the world has poured billions of dollars into the problem and only manage to control the ground they stand on.

Taking all this into consideration, the statement "...the Iraqis will figure it out for themselves" is not as callous as you think, but a realistic assessment of the situation.

No outside force will deux ex machina a solution.

.d.

--------- They say evil prevails if good men do nothing. What they should say is, evil prevails.

Lord of War

http://monroelab.net/blog/



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