Wall Street Journal - March 16, 2006
Growing Anxiety About Iraq Threatens Republicans
Bush Approval Rating Hits A Low as War Pessimism Offers Edge for Democrats
By JOHN HARWOOD
WASHINGTON -- President Bush and fellow Republicans approach the fall midterm elections facing one political problem above all others: responding to rising public anxiety about Iraq.
The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll charts the toll that Iraq has taken on the Bush presidency. The survey shows the president's approval rating falling to 37%, a low for Mr. Bush, with disapproval highest for his handling of the war. His party's advantage on handling Iraq has narrowed amid public pessimism about the conflict, helping Democrats open a double-digit edge in voter preferences for controlling Congress.
"At this point in the administration there's one thing that counts, and it's the war in Iraq," says Democrat pollster Peter Hart, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. The war, adds his Republican counterpart Bill McInturff, "is enveloping this presidency."
Public sentiment about the war isn't uniformly negative. By 47%-27%, Americans embrace one of Mr. Bush's central arguments: that the Iraq conflict has strengthened the war against terrorism the U.S. launched after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Pluralities also say the war has strengthened Iraq as a nation, advanced democracy in the Middle East, and enhanced the overall security of the U.S.
Yet respondents also say by 50%-28% that the war has weakened America's standing in the world, and by 44%-18% that it has increased the potential threat from Iran. Weeks after the bombing of a Shiite mosque led to more civil strife in Iraq, a 52% majority says the U.S. has achieved as much as can be expected.
The pollsters say violence in Iraq and the Dubai ports controversy have magnified the war's political drag -- the former by increasing fears of civil war, the latter by deepening perceptions that Mr. Bush lacks flexibility to change course. The survey of 1,005 adults, conducted March 10-13, shows that a congressional candidate favoring withdrawal of all U.S. troops within a year would gain favor by a 50%-35%, while one who advocates staying "as long as necessary" would lose favor by 43%-39%. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
What makes those attitudes especially frustrating for Mr. Bush's party is that the poll shows resilience for the president on issues that Iraq has shoved into the background. Nine in 10 Americans back Mr. Bush's efforts against Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, two-thirds approve his stance on the recently passed USA Patriot Act, and majorities express support for his Supreme Court appointments, Medicare prescription drug benefit and warrantless wiretaps by the National Security Agency.
Moreover, Americans have hardly embraced Democrats as an alternative. Eight months before Election Day, the Democratic Party draws positive ratings from just 32% of Americans, while 37% have a negative view of Mr. Bush's political adversaries. That's nearly as weak as the Republican Party's 34% positive rating and 43% negative one. Among political independents, negative views of the Democratic Party outweigh positive views by 38%-22%.
For now, however, the poll suggests Iraq has damaged Republican prospects in ways that could threaten the party's House and Senate majorities in November. By 50%-37%, voters say they prefer Democratic control of Congress after the elections.
Republicans have taken comfort in recent months from their assessment that congressional district contours limited the number of competitive seats to around 30. But the Democratic edge in the survey, larger than Republicans held just before their 1994 election triumph, suggests that more seats may be at risk. Democrats need a net gain of 15 House seats and six Senate seats to take control of both chambers.
The war seems to be aiding the Democrats' aim of "nationalizing" the election. By 44%-40%, voters say that national issues will be more important than home district performance of congressional incumbents -- the factor Republicans have hoped to emphasize.
Mr. Bush's unpopularity is lifting that Democratic effort as well. Some 37% of Americans say they'll use their votes this fall to signal opposition to Mr. Bush, while 20% say they'll signal support for him. Congress's approval rating is even lower at 33%. Republicans trail in every region but are most vulnerable in the Northeast; Democrats, hoping to wipe out Republican incumbents in "blue states" such as Connecticut, have built a thirty-percentage-point edge in voters' preference for control of Congress.
Democratic partisans show more "intensity" as gauged by interest in the elections, and the minority party has notched leads among swing voters including senior citizens and self-described moderates. "When Republicans start losing moderates by 33 percentage points, it's a very precarious signal," Mr. McInturff says.
The poll shows how large a role the war plays in fueling discontent with Mr. Bush. Of the 66% of Americans who say they disapprove of Mr. Bush's policies, seven in 10 say that ousting Saddam Hussein from power hasn't been worth its human and financial costs as violence there persists. "For Americans, it looks more and more like...we can't stop or change it," Mr. McInturff says. Some 61% of Americans say it's time to reduce U.S. troop levels; only 21% say they would back an increase in U.S. troop strength in Iraq to escalate attacks on insurgents.