> Jim Devine wrote:
>
> >I don't believe in "peak oil," but the likely environmental
> >consequences of our continued oil addiction are of a similar
> magnitude
> >to the posited results of peak oil. Different, but similar in
> terms of
> >costs.
>
> This is a bizzare claim: of course oil production will peak at some
> point and then decline! Fossil fuels are a finite resource. Do
> you mean to say that you disagree with the projected peak dates? --
> And more importantly: do you have empirically verified statistical
> models to support your preferred date, as the geologists who have
> carefully studied this topic do?
Those who talk about "peak oil" tend to consider only one factor: time. They don't consider how other factors, such as economy, technology, conservation, population, politics, etc. impact production and consumption of oil. Here's one bit of recent news.
<blockquote>Issued on: March 3, 2006 New CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Technology Could Greatly Boost U.S. Oil Supplies
Reports See Another 89-430 Billion Barrels of Oil Through Carbon Dioxide Injection, Other Advances Washington, DC – State-of-the-art enhanced oil recovery with carbon dioxide, now recognized as a potential way of dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, could add 89 billion barrels to the recoverable oil resources of the United States, the Department of Energy has determined. Current U.S. proved reserves are 21.9 billion barrels.
The 89-billion-barrel jump in resources was one of a number of possible increases identified in a series of assessments done for the Department which also found that, in the longer term, multiple advances in technology and widespread sequestration of industrial carbon dioxide could eventually add as much as 430 billion new barrels to the technically recoverable resource.
<http://www.fe.doe.gov/news/techlines/2006/06015- Oil_Recovery_Assessments_Released.html></blockquote>
Oil prices are likely to go up some more, what with Brussels and Washington's confrontation with Iran, an upcoming election in Venezuela, etc., before they come down again. We ought to be putting more pressures on peoples and governments to conserve and restructure production while oil prices are still high. Once oil prices go down, they won't listen (until they go up again).
Yoshie Furuhashi <http://montages.blogspot.com> <http://monthlyreview.org> <http://mrzine.org>