[lbo-talk] Fwd: [PEN-L] Kevin Phillips: declinist

[Steven L. Robinson]

There are three separate layers of  this discussion on peak oil: geologic, economic and  social.  In other words, there are hypotheses as to how much oil has been  extracted to date and how much remains in the ground, just as there are hypotheses as to how the global economy will respond to limitations in the supply of fossil fuels and then there is the social side where social 'theorists', like Howard Kuntsler, make  a living selling books on the effect of petroleum induced doom upon the world.  Seems to me that the geology needs to be taken seriously - since it is a matter of science, no matter how imperfect, and the economic aspect of  it is worthy of discussion.

  
As to petroleum induced doom, in a rationally operated economy a smoth transition  to non-petroleum  would be likely given the technology available to us. However, that is not the world we live in.   Given the steadfast refusal of the political and econonmic leaderships of  the U.S. to even acknowledge the much more firmly established fact - which is what it now is - of global warming, it is impossible not to despair of anything like a smooth transition absent major social and political change.. SR
-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Miles Jackson <cqmv at pdx.edu> 


> Jim Devine wrote: 
> 
> > 


> > 
> >[This peak oil theory is a cousin of the Malthus/Ricardo theory of 200 
> >years ago or so. It's _natural_ limits to growth which is going to 
> >kill us, not capitalism or the hegemonic political bloc...] 
> > 
> >2) there is a lot of room to "mine" these resources more efficiently, 
> >so that more of the finite resources can be extracted as a percentage 
> >of what's there. 
> > It's interesting that almost all these arguments were used in the 1970s 
> to debunk Hubbert's claim that U. S. oil production would peak in the 
> mid-70s and then decline. Geologists' statistical models--which 
> supposedly ignore all of these sociopolitical factors--quite nicely 
> predicted the decline (and continuing decline) of U. S. oil production. 
> The Hubbert model has also been used to accurately predict patterns of 
> oil production in a number of other countries. Let me put it this way: 
> if I have to choose between a statistical model well-verified by data 
> and neo-classical economic arguments about how price increases for a 
> commodity will promote technological wonders, I'm going with the data. 
> 
> Miles 
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