[lbo-talk] doom

Nathan Newman nathanne at nathannewman.org
Fri Mar 17 15:49:38 PST 2006


----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com> -There's still some time though: given the current rate of decline, -private sector union density won't hit 0 until sometime in late 2030 -or early 2031; at 7.7% in 2005, it's falling at the comfortable pace -of just 0.29 percentage points a year.

An odd time to push this point, since union density held roughly even in 2005 at 12.5% of the workforce http://www.cepr.net/bytes/union_byte_2006_01.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm

Total union membership actually increased by 200,000 to 15.7 million members in 2006.

Within those numbers are some interesting stats, such as * union density in the private sector did not fall, so the relatively stable unionization rate did not reflect big gains in the public sector masking losses in the private * the unionization rate for Hispanics, traditionally lower than for other groups, rose from 10.1 to 10.4 percent.

No one would argue that these numbers are amazing, but given the fact that total union membership is only 4% since 1992, so even if you project another 4% decline over the next fourteen years, and another 4% by 2031, your doom projection seems rather bizarre unless there is truly amazing non-union job growth.

What's actually impressive is that unlike under Reaganism, where union membership, not just density, plummeted, unions have been holding their own pretty well despite the full-scale assault by the Bush NLRB and the recession-based layoffs in traditional union sectors like auto.

--- Nathan Newman



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