Washington Profile has what I thought was an interesting and to-the-point discussion of the Belarussian elections. I only post that part relevant to the thread's point due to length.
Washington Profile www.washprofile.org March 29, 2006 Expert Analysis: The Belarusian Elections
Lucan Way is an assistant professor of political science at Temple University, and currently a visiting fellow at the Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame.
Robert H. Legvold, a professor of political science at Columbia University, is a member of the Executive Committee of The Harriman Institute. He is the co-author of Swords and Sustenance: The Economics of National Security in Belarus and Ukraine (2004), and Belarus at the Crossroads (1999).
Washington Profile: How do you assess the results of the presidential elections in Belarus? Were they completely predictable?
Lucan Way: I would say more or less yes, that basically the election was decided long before the actual election day of March 19. This was done through a variety of mechanisms. The fist one was that the opposition was almost completely denied any access to media, and [barred from] the distribution of information about their candidate. There were no billboards of any kind advertising the candidate. They were given about two spots on television that were censored, there were virtually no ads in the newspapers, and they were also arrested for distributing legal material. And in the regions I was in, the representatives of the Milinkevitch campaign faced constant harassment and short-term arrest. This meant that, in effect, there was no campaign to speak of.
Robert Legvold: Absolutely predictable and absolutely fraudulent, and absolutely illegitimate by any democratic standard.
Washington Profile: In your view, to what extent does Lukashenka enjoy popular support in his country?
Way: I think, especially in the West, it is important to note that he does enjoy real popular support, although it is difficult to know how much because of the absence of any good polling. And also that there is a reason to support him, that Belarusians are not simply crazy or sort of blinded. One of the things one notes, especially having visited other post-Soviet countries, is that Belarus is actually a fairly functional country, in the sense that salaries are paid relatively on time, by post-soviet standards corruption is relatively in check, pensions are paid on time. Even the roads compared to other post-Soviet countries are in much better shape. I noticed this because I was traveling to many rural polling stations and compared to Russia, Ukraine and not to mention Georgia or Azerbaijan, the infrastructure is in much better shape. I think it’s important to understand that support for Lukashenka is based on something, and that it’s not simply due to his monopolistic control of the media.
Legvold: He does enjoy popular support. It’s not what it was five years ago, when it was probably genuinely in the 70 maybe even the 80 percent range, but I think he could win a free and fair election, if he were inclined to run one
Some of the polls that Russians use is 60 percent, although I think it’s probably closer to 50 percent.
Legvold: It’s, I think, longstanding. Some of it is generational. That is, an older generation accustomed to Soviet ways and the securities of Soviet times, believes in him. It is also urban, rural, so that greater support comes to him from the countryside, and he is playing on that by trying to create some model agricultural communities in the Belarusian countryside, which people see and appreciate. And then, more generally, I think it is because the regime is persuaded. The regime certainly has made an effort to persuade them, that life is more stable, more predictable, more normal, even if it is not particularly luxurious, then most of the other post-Soviet states. So some of the support comes as a result of the invidious comparisons with the apparent greater turmoil in Ukraine and elsewhere in the post-soviet space.
Washington Profile: Belarus has experienced a so-called economic miracle. What are the prospects that it will continue?
Way: It’s a little bit hard to completely assess because the quality of the statistics is so poor and they are clearly manipulated. At the same time, there are several points. One is that it is clear that according to some measures, Belarus always has done better than its post-soviet neighbors. The relative absence of salary arrears is a big one. At the same time, as many have noticed, this level of relative economic success is based to an extremely large degree on Russian energy subsidies, which account for roughly between 20 and 30 percent of Belarus’ GDP. It is not at all clear to me that absent these subsidies, that Belarus would be able to maintain the economic performance that it has thus far.
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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