[lbo-talk] SCO Invites Iran to Its Summit on June 15 (was US's Iran strategy [was Was Doomed: Letters from Third-World Leaders])

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

On 5/16/06, Marvin Gandall <marvgandall at videotron.ca> wrote:
> Yoshie wrote:.
>
> > The only effective brake on Washington is the concern that some
> > members of the US power elite may have about what sanctions, missile
> > strikes, or a coup against the Ahmadinejad administration might do to
> > oil supplies and prices: "If the UN Security Council voted for
> > sanctions against Iran, 'it would mean an enormous disruption as oil
> > prices might rise to over 100 U.S. dollars (per barrel),' said Joseph
> > Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in 2001" (at
> > <http://english.people.com.cn/200604/06/eng20060406_256217.html>).
> =============================
> As you know, the well-connected Washington Post columnist Jim Hoagland is a
> good reflection of what the US ruling class is thinking. It's been divided
> over Mideast policy, especially since the invasion and subsequent imbroglio
> in Iraq. Hoagland's reiteration on Sunday of the congressional and foreign
> policy establishment's stress on "soft power" - what he calls "asymmetrical
> diplomacy and statecraft built on flexibility" - rather than on "constantly
> raising the temperature under a boiling pot", as the Bush administration is
> inclined to do, will be familiar to most of us. If nothing else, it is seen
> the only possible way of lining up international support for military action
> against Iran. But it's clear that, especially since Vietnam, direct military
> action, except for relatively safe aerial bombing to destroy infrastructure,
> has not the preferred option for foreign policy "realists" who have more
> confidence in US economic power - in particular, the allure of its deep
> capital and consumer markets - to promote political ends. In the case of
> Iran, as well, Hoagland thinks it is "the Treasury Department, not the
> Pentagon, (which) holds the key..." His tactic of choice is to threaten
> "market access denial" to European banks and other international lenders
> which do business with Iran, and I'd be looking for those telltale signs if
> some patchwork settlement short of war and brokered by the West Europeans,
> Russians and Chinese does eventually result between the US and Iran, .

That is conceivable, but it isn't very likely.  Besides, Tehran should
not agree to any such deal UNLESS Moscow offers Iran the kind of
protection that it used to offer to Cuba, which it won't and can't
anyway.  Ahmadinejad on his own won't agree to it either, but Khamenei
might compel his administration to.  If that happens, though, it still
won't be the end of it.  Keep in your mind: the issue is NOT nukes but
Tehran's economic and foreign policy -- especially under the
Ahmadinejad administration (just as the issue was NOT WMD but
Baghdad's economic and foreign policy in Iraq).

Now, this is extremely good news -- the best news about Iran that I've
heard in months:

<blockquote>SCO invites Iran to its summit on June 15 - Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

16.05.2006, 13.39

BEIJING, May 16 (Itar-Tass) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said on Tuesday Iran has been invited as an observer to the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization's summit due on June 15.

"The invitation has already been sent," he said.

At present, the UN Security Council is studying the International
Atomic Energy Agency director-general's report on Iran's nuclear
problem.

"The IAEA will meet in session in two weeks' time," Lavrov said.

<http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=8257720&PageNum=0></blockquote>

<blockquote>Iran: Plans To Join Shanghai Group Seen As Bold Geopolitical Stroke

By Breffni O'Rourke

Iran's recent announcement that it intends to join the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) could complicate Western efforts to
curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Iran now has observer status at the
SCO, but it hopes membership could come as early as June. Although SCO
membership is no foregone conclusion -- and does not include mutual
defense pledges -- being inside the Shanghai "club" could bring Tehran
extra support from its two key members: Russia and China.

PRAGUE, May 15, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Membership of the SCO could offer
Iran shelter from the intense U.S.-led international pressure on
Tehran to end uranium enrichment.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mohammadi was quoted by
ITAR-TASS and Xinhua news agencies as saying in April that his country
hopes to join the SCO this summer. He said Iran is looking forward to
reviewing the nuclear dispute with its SCO "colleagues." Mohammadi
said Tehran hopes for those countries' support at the organization's
June summit in Shanghai.

"What we are seeing is really a tectonic shift of diplomatic and every
other kind of activity into Western and Central Asia."

Russia and China have already given Tehran crucial support in the
United Nations debate over its controversial nuclear program. Both
have resisted pressure from the United States and its European allies
to formulate a UN draft resolution that could open the way for
economic sanctions or even military intervention unless Iran stops
work on the nuclear fuel cycle.

<http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/05/bd019d66-f5aa-457e-9cf2-7d88d5098383.html></blockquote>

-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
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