>So W's approval ratings have been slipping, and approval correlates
>highly with party affiliation. Is there any direct measurement that
>self-reported party affiliation has been shifting?
Dems are doing somewhat better. After the 2004 election, party ID was pretty close to evenly divided (if you include "leaners"). Latest Gallup has 48% D, 39% R. Excluding "leaners" (i.e. including those with only firm ID), it was 38% R 27% R just after the election; latest is 34% D, 30% R. Indies are big, thoug: 27% at the time of the election, and now 36%.
These figures are surprisingly volatile though.
Doug