An Iraq-War style invasion is not imminent, but the siege has already begun. This just in from the Hindustan Times:
<blockquote>US President George W Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have agreed on a timetable for American intervention to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capability.
Bush told Olmert that the plans for US intervention are congruent with the timetable put up by the later during their discussion, a media report said on Thursday.
He assured the Israeli premier that Washington would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear capability, Ynetnews reported.
According to Israeli intelligence assessment, Iran will acquire the necessary nuclear technology to build a nuclear weapon within a year, Olmert said during the talks.
The prime minister also expressed concern over diplomatic foot-dragging at the United Nations, where the United States has faced Russian and Chinese opposition to push for tough sanctions against Iran.
Despite the US assurance, officials in Washington have cast doubt over its ability to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear technology, the news portal said.
"I am very, very, very satisfied," Olmert told Israeli reporters after talks with Bush.
The US will ask the Security Council to impose economic and military sanctions on Iran if it refuses to halt uranium enrichment activities, it said.
If Russia uses its veto to block a US-backed resolution for imposing sanctions on Iran, Washington will circumvent the Security Council by luring allied countries to impose an economic and military embargo on Tehran, it said. (Press Trust of India, "Bush, Olmert Agree on Iran Deadline," 25 May 2006, <http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1705790,00050004.htm>)</blockquote>
So, notwithstanding a remote possibility of a Libyan solution for Iran (see my response to Ulhas), I believe that the greedy elite of Washington have not given up on the full neo-con prize.
Moreover, informal sanctions have already started: Moscow is dragging its feet on the completion of the $800 million Bushehr nuclear power plant, which Moscow says won't open till 2007; "Nippon Oil Corp., Japan's largest refiner, will cut its imports of Iranian crude by 15 percent this year, the first hint Tehran's nuclear dispute with the West is affecting its vital oil trade" (Ikuko Kao, "UPDATE 3-Japan's Nippon Oil Cuts Back Iran Crude imports," 15 March 2006, <http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nT24895&imageid=&cap=>); Tokyo is slow to develop the Azadegan oil reserves ("Iran Warns Japan Not to Procrastinate on Developing Azadegan Oil Project," 25 May 2006, <http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/05/25/afx2772590.html>); and "For obvious reasons, everyone was interested whether Iran would be accepted as a member this summer. The answer in Shanghai was a clear no. Neither Iran with its complicated relations with the U.S. and the IAEA, nor European Belarus, nor Pakistan with its attempts to find new friends in the wake of the ongoing Indian-American rapprochement, none of them will join the SCO now" ("Why Iran, Belarus Will Not Join Shanghai Cooperation Organization This Summer," RIA Novosti, 17 May 2006, <http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060517/48259958.html>); "Prodded by the United States with threats of fines and lost business, four of the biggest European banks have started curbing their activities in Iran, even in the absence of a Security Council resolution imposing economic sanctions on Iran for its suspected nuclear weapons program" (Steven R. Weisman, "U.S. Pressure Yields Curbs on Iran in Europe," 22 May 2006, <http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/22/world/middleeast/22iran.html?_r=1&hp&ex=1148270400&en=e22928431f7ecbe3&ei=5094&partner=homepage&oref=slogin>).
Moscow and Beijing remain "wild cards," but they can probably only weaken the eventual SC resolution:
<blockquote>France, Britain and Germany discussed the final form of the package Tuesday ahead of submission for hoped-for approval Wednesday at a formal meeting of the five permanent Security Council members and Germany.
A British Foreign Office official said that six-nation meeting had began. The venue was being kept secret, reflecting the delicate nature of the negotiations.
If accepted, the compromise would resolve wrangling within the Security Council since it became actively involved in March, two months after Iran's file was referred to it by the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Russia and China have opposed calls by the United States, Britain and France for a resolution threatening sanctions and enforceable by military action.
The compromise proposal is meant to break that deadlock, said the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details were not released. (George Jahn, "6 World Powers in London to Discuss Iran," Associated Press, 24 May 2006, <http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=485139&category=&BCCode=&newsdate=5/24/2006>)</blockquote>
If there were a strong anti-imperialist left in the US, Japan (the number one importer of Iranian oil), or China (the number two importer of Iranian oil in possession of a veto power), we could at least try to counter Washington's Iran campaign, but those are among the countries where leftists have the weakest hands in the world. As things stand now, I have to settle for reading Russian tea leaves, for the time being: e.g., Stephen Boykewich, "Caspian Complicates Iran-Russia Relations," Moscow Times, 25 May 2006, <http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2006/05/25/002.html>.
-- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>