If my working-class Persian Prince pulls off a passive revolution in a fashion that Antonio Gramsci discussed the term, you first heard it from me here: <http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20060501/037481.html>.
For that, the international diplomatic struggle over Iran's nuclear research may help Ahmadinejad As long as Iran's in Washington's regime change crosshairs, he could use that threat to further consolidate his coalition of younger generations of ambitious men and women and the economically disenfranchised, weakening the power of the ruling class and clerical gerontocrats -- a risky path, as external danger could very well motivate the ruling class and clerical gerontocrats to make a deal with Washington, dispose of Ahmadinejad, and put Iran back on the neoliberal track if Washington made a credible offer, but the risk is certainly worth taking.
The ruling class and clerical gerontocrats won't relinquish their power over the crucial economic levers of Iran easily, though, as can be seen in his failures to take control of the oil ministry (where three of his nominees were rejected by the parliament -- Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, the current minister, used to be a deputy oil minister under Khatami <http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1665202,00.html>) and the central bank:
> Mr. Ahmadinejad offered voters change and promises to improve the
> lives of the poor, who make up the majority of this country. But he
> has been unable to push through economic changes by personal fiat, as
> he has done in the political realm. He ordered the banks, for
> example, to lower interest rates, and was rebuffed by the head of the
> central bank. He offered to give inexpensive housing loans to the
> poor — but with only 300,000 available, more than 2 million people
> applied. The program will cost the government more than $3 billion.
>
> He has traveled around the country, promising to dole out development
> projects the government can hardly afford. In the last year, the cost
> of construction materials has jumped 30 to 50 percent, and prices of
> dairy products have increased by more than 15 percent. Many people
> are asking how this can happen when the price of oil is so high.
>
> Without a strong grasp of economics, and an economy that is almost
> entirely in the hands of the government, Mr. Ahmadinejad has grappled
> with ways to inject oil revenue into the system without causing
> inflation to soar. At the same time, the volatile political situation
> has caused capital flight and limited foreign investment as the needs
> of the public continue to grow alongside the president's promises.
>
> In politics, the president by turns ignores and confronts those who
> have opposed him from the start, whether conservative or liberal, all
> the while playing to the masses.
>
> "Ahmadinejad knows there is a big gap between the intellectual elite
> and the masses, and he knows how it serves his interest," said
> Emadedin Baghi, director of a prisoners' rights group. "He is playing
> to the masses and trying to widen this gap."
Yes, widen the political gap he must, and Ahmadinejad ought to be traveling the country clarifying who and what are blocking the economic reforms, so he can mobilize the streets for the reforms. Don't promise what you can't deliver in the near term; explain how people can and must fight for it if they really want it.
-- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>