by Paul Glastris
WAVE DOUBTS... I just got off the phone with a Democratic pollster whom I trust a lot and who has been working on a sizable number of House races.
This pollster has real doubts that a big Democratic “wave” is about to hit. He’s “95 percent sure,” he says, that Democrats will take the House, probably by a five to ten seat margin.
But he just “doesn’t see a pattern” to those expected pickups that would suggest the kind of broad change in the public’s mood that would lead to the 30-to-50 seat pickup that some are talking about.
Instead, he observes, “it really is a matter of individual races and candidates.” The GOP incumbents who are in trouble are either caught up in scandals of their own making or up against very strong Democratic challengers (my pollster friend gives a lot of credit to Rahm Emanuel’s talent scouting).
A real anti-incumbent, anti-GOP wave, he says, would sweep out some otherwise strong officeholders and sweep in some weaker challengers. But he doesn’t see signs of that, at least not yet: “I don’t see Democrats who shouldn’t be winning but who are, and I don’t see Republicans who shouldn’t be losing but who are.”
The pollster hopes he’s wrong, but that’s his read.
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