Michael Pugliese <michael.098762001 at gmail.com> wrote: Neo-Cons say otherwise, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/893pltam.asp Yikes! Kristol, Barnes, Labash, Continetti, Matus, Last, and the rest give their midterm election predictions. by Weekly Standard Staff 11/03/2006 6:00:00 PM
William Kristol
Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)
House: 192 (R), 243 (D)
Dark Horse: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado. etc., etc., etc. ___________________________________ http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2006/all_your_votes
It is that time in the election cycle when it is once again our duty to remind our friends on the other side of The Big Ditch that there are about as many of us as there are of them.
We need to do this, because it is too easy for Democrats in the United States to forget that all the reporters and editors in the press are Democrats, just like they are.
As elections approach, the reporters and editors tend to get carried away, licking their chops in anticipation of the Great Democratic Victory that is sure to come. They write a lot of "news" stories that reflect this anticipation, and this often leads ordinary Democrats to believe that a Great Democratic Victory is actually on its way.
More below...
As ought to be obvious by now, Great Democratic Victories are in fact rather rare.
There hasn't been a really good one since Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in the landslide of 1964. Even though that was over forty years ago, actual editors working for major newspapers still allow reporters to file stories about the coming Great Democratic Victory.
They do this every two years. They did it in 2000, they did it in 2002, they did it in 2004, and they are doing it now. To those of us on the Republican side, the current delusional euphoria in the press is worse — by quite a bit — than we've ever seen it. Perhaps this is an artifact of desperation. Maybe it's Bush Derangement Syndrome. Or Rovian mind-control rays. We're not sure.
Our concern is that if the Great Democratic Victory does not materialize, Democrats who still believe that the press reports actual news might think that something has gone wrong with the election system. We have already seen instances of this. In fact, Democratic complaints concerning rigged-this and rigged-that are becoming a staple of our elections.
Democrats need to remember that the nation is pretty much evenly divided. Expecting a Great Democratic Victory when the voters are divided 50-50 is unrealistic. Yes, every election year the press tells us all that a Great Democratic Victory is coming.
But you shouldn't believe them. We certainly don't. They are cheerleading. They want a Great Democratic Victory, just as you do. They want it very badly. And so they write all sorts of nonsense that they wish were true, just to make themselves feel good.
But don't let it fool you. Enjoy the camaraderie with your fellow Democrats in the press. Savor the pre-election victory parties. Imagine what things would be like if all those polls in the newspapers were true. Just don't be surprised if, the day after the election, none of it came to pass.
You need to get past the idea that what appears in the papers is true. We Republicans had to learn this the hard way. If we believed all the stuff that the reporters write about our chances, we'd have to give up and hide under the bed every election cycle.
Instead we have learned to beat you more often than not, even as the press tells anyone who will listen that the Democrats are about to win a big one.
In the papers, Mondale was tied with Reagan. Dukakis was ahead of Bush. Reagan v Carter was "too close to call." So was Schwarzenegger v Davis.
The reporters who write this stuff really, truly believe it. But come the election, none of it happens, and a lot of Democrats wonder why. Well, it's because it was never true to begin with. The press is full of partisans just like you, and they write stories that they — and you — want to hear.
Come Wednesday, when it turns out that we've won our share again, please don't go screaming that there is something wrong with the elections machinery. In fact we're as numerous as you are.
Great Democratic Victories are unlikely. So are Great Republican Victories for that matter, and for the same reason. But we don't go into elections expecting a Great Republican Victory, because all we ever see in the press is how we're about to get hosed. We don't believe it of course — we know that most reporters and editors are firmly in the tank for the Democrats, this year more than most — but we do worry that they might be right. So we work pretty hard to make sure the hosing doesn't happen.
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