On Nov 7, 2006, at 4:59 PM, Steven L. Robinson wrote:
> So, is the LBO moderator going to make an early call of the
> election a la 2004?
Hell no. The Fox anchors were reflecting the exit polls at the time, which were showing a Kerry victory. Mysteriously, the exit polls were later revised to match the vote count.
Can't remember if I mentioned this here, but the AAPOR list was all in mourning a few months ago on the death of the inventor of the exit poll (and random-digit dialing), Warren Mitofsky. One mourner mentioned the use of exit polls in foreign countries as a check on the honesty of the vote count. When I pointed out that that use has been rejected in the U.S. - I was discreet enough not to point out that Mitofsky had participated in that rejection - I was denounced for insulting the memory of The Great Mitofsky. Mitofsky himself, who seemed like a bit of an irascible prick who was never shy in offering his opinion, went into hiding for weeks after the 2004 election. It's interesting that the profession would rather take a hit to the reputation of their work than do anything that might precipitate a legitimation crisis.
Doug