[lbo-talk] Haass: Iraq is lost; Iran will become the regional power

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Tue Nov 14 23:46:44 PST 2006


URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,447763,00.html


>From an interview with Richard Haass (head of the Council of Foreign
Relations, which used to be considered the summit of the foreign policy establishment back when Presidents listened to anything such people said) by Der Spiegel:

SPIEGEL: And then there are Iraq and the Middle East. You just

published an article in the journal Foreign Affairs in which you

say that the situation is enough "to make one nostalgic for the old

Middle East."

Haass: The old Middle East -- an era which I believe has only

recently ended -- was one in which the United States enjoyed

tremendous dominance and freedom of maneuver. Oil was available at

fairly low prices, the region was largely at peace. I believe

largely because of the American decision to go to war in Iraq and

how it has been carried out, as well as the emphasis on promoting

democracy and a lack of any serious energy policy, the Middle East

has considerably grown worse. It's one of history's ironies that

the first war in Iraq, a war of necessity, marked the beginning of

the American era in the Middle East and the second Iraq war, a war

of choice, has precipitated its end.

SPIEGEL: So what will become of the region?

Haass: Visions of a new Middle East that is peaceful, prosperous

and democratic will not be realized. Much more likely is the

emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself

and the world. Iran will be a powerful state in the region, a

classical imperial power. No viable peace process between Israel

and the Palestinians is likely for the foreseeable future. Militias

will emerge throughout the region, terrorism will grow in

sophistication, tensions between Sunni and Shia will increase,

causing problems in countries with divided societies, such as

Bahrain, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Islam will fill the political

and intellectual vacuum. Iraq at best will remain messy for years

to come, with a weak central government, a divided society and

sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state racked

by all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.

SPIEGEL: How long will this dangerous period last?

Haass: I don't know if this will last for five or 50 years, but

it's going to be an incredibly difficult era. Together with

managing a dynamic Asia it will be the primary challenge for US

foreign policy.

SPIEGEL: But the Bush administration still seems hopeful, seeing in

all this violence only the "birth pangs" of this wonderful New

Middle East.

Haass: I hope that they are right. I would love to see them right

and me wrong. But I'm afraid they are not.

SPIEGEL: Is Iraq still winnable for the United States?

Haass: We've reached a point in Iraq where we've got to get real.

And this is not going to be a near-term success for American

foreign policy. The Iraq situation is not winnable in any

meaningful sense of the word "winnable." So what we need to do now

is look for a way to limit the losses and costs, try to advance on

other fronts in the region and try to limit the fallout of Iraq.

That's what you have to do sometimes when you're a global power.

<end excerpt>

Full at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,447763,00.html

Michael



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