URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,447763,00.html
>From an interview with Richard Haass (head of the Council of Foreign
Relations, which used to be considered the summit of the foreign policy
establishment back when Presidents listened to anything such people said) by
Der Spiegel:
SPIEGEL: And then there are Iraq and the Middle East. You just
published an article in the journal Foreign Affairs in which you
say that the situation is enough "to make one nostalgic for the old
Middle East."
Haass: The old Middle East -- an era which I believe has only
recently ended -- was one in which the United States enjoyed
tremendous dominance and freedom of maneuver. Oil was available at
fairly low prices, the region was largely at peace. I believe
largely because of the American decision to go to war in Iraq and
how it has been carried out, as well as the emphasis on promoting
democracy and a lack of any serious energy policy, the Middle East
has considerably grown worse. It's one of history's ironies that
the first war in Iraq, a war of necessity, marked the beginning of
the American era in the Middle East and the second Iraq war, a war
of choice, has precipitated its end.
SPIEGEL: So what will become of the region?
Haass: Visions of a new Middle East that is peaceful, prosperous
and democratic will not be realized. Much more likely is the
emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself
and the world. Iran will be a powerful state in the region, a
classical imperial power. No viable peace process between Israel
and the Palestinians is likely for the foreseeable future. Militias
will emerge throughout the region, terrorism will grow in
sophistication, tensions between Sunni and Shia will increase,
causing problems in countries with divided societies, such as
Bahrain, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Islam will fill the political
and intellectual vacuum. Iraq at best will remain messy for years
to come, with a weak central government, a divided society and
sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state racked
by all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.
SPIEGEL: How long will this dangerous period last?
Haass: I don't know if this will last for five or 50 years, but
it's going to be an incredibly difficult era. Together with
managing a dynamic Asia it will be the primary challenge for US
foreign policy.
SPIEGEL: But the Bush administration still seems hopeful, seeing in
all this violence only the "birth pangs" of this wonderful New
Middle East.
Haass: I hope that they are right. I would love to see them right
and me wrong. But I'm afraid they are not.
SPIEGEL: Is Iraq still winnable for the United States?
Haass: We've reached a point in Iraq where we've got to get real.
And this is not going to be a near-term success for American
foreign policy. The Iraq situation is not winnable in any
meaningful sense of the word "winnable." So what we need to do now
is look for a way to limit the losses and costs, try to advance on
other fronts in the region and try to limit the fallout of Iraq.
That's what you have to do sometimes when you're a global power.
<end excerpt>
Full at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,447763,00.html
Michael