[lbo-talk] Gallup: Lebanese don't want Hezbollah simply disarmed

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

On 11/24/06, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> November 20, 2006
> Few Lebanese Want Hezbollah Militia Simply Disarmed
> Almost half want forces integrated with Lebanese national army
>
> by Richard Burkholder
> Director, International Public Opinion Research
> GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
>
> PRINCETON, NJ -- Following the recent 34-day war between Israel and
> Hezbollah paramilitary forces, there were widely differing
> interpretations of the outcome from international observers. Among
> the Lebanese people, however, there is a degree of consensus that
> Hezbollah prevailed militarily. About three-fourths of all Lebanese
> (74%) say they view the conflict as "mostly a military victory for
> Hezbollah," while just 14% see it as "mostly a military defeat."
>
> The Future of Hezbollah Fighters
>
> The United Nations Security Council has called for the disarmament
> and decommissioning of all of Hezbollah's fighting forces. However,
> only one in seven Lebanese (15%) say they believe Hezbollah's
> fighters should simply be disarmed. Nearly half (47%) say that while
> they agree with the proviso to disarm Hezbollah's fighters, they
> would then like to see them integrated into Lebanon's national army.
> More dramatically, just over a third (36%) say they favor neither the
> initial disarmament nor the subsequent integration of Hezbollah's
> forces.
>
> Christians (61%) and Sunnis (58%) are inclined toward the option of
> disarmament followed by military integration, with relatively few
> (24% of Christians and 11% of Sunnis) saying they simply want
> Hezbollah's fighters to be disarmed. The vast majority of Shiites
> (85%), however, say they want Hezbollah neither disarmed nor
> incorporated into Lebanon's national forces.
>
>
>
> Future Arms Shipments to Hezbollah
>
> Despite the U.N. Security Council's ban on such shipments, most
> Lebanese say they believe both Iran (68%) and Syria (66%) are likely
> to continue to ship arms to Hezbollah. Shiites, Sunnis, and
> Christians are about equally likely to hold these perceptions.
>
> Just over a third of all Lebanese think Iran and Syria should
> continue to supply arms to Hezbollah (38% for Iran, 37% for Syria),
> though they are outweighed by the majorities who disagree (53% and
> 54%, respectively). Not surprisingly, there are serious differences
> between the country's Shiite community -- about 8 in 10 of whom would
> welcome such shipments -- and its Sunni and Christian populations, of
> whom 64% and 70% are opposed, respectively.
>
>
>
> Survey Methods
>
> Results are based on face-to-face interviews conducted between Sept.
> 18 and Oct. 12, 2006, with a randomly selected national sample of
> 1,000 Lebanese adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on this
> sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error
> attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage
> points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
> difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
> the findings of public opinion polls.

What estimates of Shi'i, Sunni, and Christian populations does Gallup
use?  The last census in Lebanon was taken in 1932.

-- 
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
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