[lbo-talk] housing bubble overcorrection

Patrick Bond pbond at mail.ngo.za
Sun Nov 26 21:04:21 PST 2006


Doug Henwood wrote:
> the existence of bubbles has more adherents now than in the heyday of
> efficient market theory in the 70s and 80s, thanks in no small part to
> Robert Shiller's work. For a stock market example, see
> <http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/online/jpmalt.pdf>, exhibit 4.
>
> The US stock market bubble of the 1990s reverted to mean, but never
> really went beyond that. So there's reason to believe the fat lady is
> still just warming up.

Surely the key criteria to consider are a) the ability of the system's managers (the Fed, Treasury, BWIs, etc) to displace the pain of the 'correction' - the devalorisation of fictitious capital - into other territories and societies; and b) the ability of those adversely affected to resist being the victims of devalorisation? And b) has not been impressive, and if a) has demonstrated an impressive capacity by global financial managers during the 1980s-present, with a relatively dominant US$, and if that comes under threat because of the persistence of the US current account deficit (like it did in the late 1970s), then who knows how far - and where - a run might develop.

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