The Times of India
Test likely to affect Indo-US nuke deal Chidanand Rajghatta [ 9 Oct, 2006 2140 hrs IST TIMES NEWS NETWORK ]
WASHINGTON: North Korea's secretive communist regime jolted the world on Monday by defiantly conducting a long-anticipated nuclear test in the teeth of international pressure.
The test, possibly of a single plutonium device, was reported by seismic recordings across the world. It particularly convulsed the United States and North Korea's immediate neighbourhood that includes Washington's allies South Korea and Japan, and the communist regime's patron of many years, China.
Remarkably, North Korea undertook the test after duly informing the world community and in full view of US satellite and technical intelligence which provided an almost hourly countdown to a disbelieving Washington.
The closed communist regime had been threatened with sanctions and more if it went ahead with the test, but it did not seem to care, attributing its action to American intimidation and threats of an eventual US attack.
Experts said it is more likely Pyongyang was taking advantage of the United States' imperial overstretch that has seen Washington enmeshed in a war on Iraq in pursuit of non-existent WMDs and a war of words with Iran over its nuclear programme.
"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to our military and people," the North Korean news agency blandly explained in a statement.
"This test will contribute to ensuring peace and stability on the peninsula and in the region."
The immediate response from Washington, Tokyo, Seoul, Canberra and allied world capitals was anger, while there was dismay and concern in Moscow and Beijing, which are former patrons of the mysterious country ruled for the last 60 years by a father-son combine.
The long term fall-out could be pressure from hawks in economic powerhouses Japan and South Korea to militarize and perhaps even go nuclear in response.
This could in turn provoke China into returning North Korea to its embrace, the two having disengaged in recent years as Beijing has opened up to the west.
Japan, which is inhibited from militarisation or going nuclear on account of its pacifist Constitution arising from its defeat in World War II, had just now begun to build bridges with China. The newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visit Beijing just recently and was in Seoul on Monday when news of the test broke.
The test is also bound to cast a shadow on the U.S-India nuclear deal which is already struggling to make its way through Congress, with critics getting fresh ammunition to derail what is essentially a civilian nuclear energy agreement.
It also draws in Pakistan, whose rogue nuclear program was long tied to North Korea's efforts. Questions linger about what exactly did disgraced nuclear scientist A.Q.Khan, who Islamabad is shielding, provide North Korea by way of technology and material.
Already, experts are invoking nuclear tests by India and Pakistan to suggest North Korea was hoping to get away with its provocation after an initial rap on the knuckles from the international community.
The most crucial player in the mix is China, which for many years had a relationship" as close as lips and teeth" with North Korea. In fact, North Korea and Pakistan might well have been the upper lip and the lower lip respectively considering the kind of help Beijing gave them both in an effort to contain and constraint its perceived regional rivals.
But initial reports suggest that the blowback from the international community will be more than what North Korea may be able to endure, although there were signs that China may still come to its rescue.
In Washington, the Bush administration was galvanized into rallying support for a UN Resolution aimed at imposing almost total sanctions on North Korea.
"The United States is closely monitoring the situation and reaffirms its commitment to protect and defend our allies in the region," White House spokesman Tony Snow said, describing the reported test as a "provocative act in defiance of the will of the international community."
Only China stands between North Korea and a possible Chapter 7 United Nations resolution which will impose total sanctions on Pyongyang by all UN member countries.
In the hours after the test, Beijing has called for "calm and restraint" from the international community, pointing to engagement with North Korea to wean it away from the nuclear path instead of a confrontation.