Reliably Democratic California looks more GOP-friendly this year than much of the U.S. In a climate that favors the moderate, Schwarzenegger sets the tone.
By Michael Finnegan Times Staff Writer
October 15, 2006
By political tradition, California forges its own way. It has affirmed its place in the forefront of reliably Democratic states even as the nation has kept Republicans firmly in control of Congress and the White House.
So now that the national mood has shifted amid the troubles in Iraq, giving Democrats a shot at seizing Congress, it is oddly fitting that 2006 is shaping up as a strong year for Republicans in California.
The Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is heavily favored for reelection Nov. 7 over his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Several other Republicans seeking statewide office are mounting surprisingly competitive races against Democratic rivals, though the outcomes are far from sure. And billions of dollars in bonds and taxes on the ballot face tough prospects, thanks largely to Republican voters' aversion to government growth.
With its nearly 16 million voters spread across more than 163,000 square miles, California is so vast that it creates an election climate of its own. This year, its dominating force is Schwarzenegger, whose comeback from his political collapse last year is driving a potential Republican resurgence in California — or at least what would pass for one in a state so effectively Democratic.
Further isolating California from the national swing toward Democrats is the absence of serious competition in the state's 53 congressional races, but for two U.S. House districts where the reelection of Republicans is somewhat uncertain.
By drawing the state's congressional map to protect incumbents of both major parties, the Legislature has made California immune from "the great churning dissatisfaction with the Republicans on a national level," said Tony Quinn, co-editor of California Target Book, a nonpartisan election guide. "We might as well be out in the Pacific Ocean someplace."
Also marginalizing California's role in the nation's midterm vote is the all-but-guaranteed reelection of Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Her Republican opponent, former state Sen. Richard Mountjoy of Monrovia, has raised too little money — and is too conservative — to pose a credible threat.
As for Schwarzenegger, he has refashioned his political image in a way that separates him more than ever from the social conservatives who lead the national Republican Party. A supporter of gay rights, gun control and legal abortion, he has doggedly chased after support from Democrats and independents this year, as must any California Republican running statewide. (Republicans make up 34% of California voters, Democrats 43%. Another 23% have shunned the major parties but still tend to favor Democrats.)
For the most part, Schwarzenegger has done so by striking deals with Democrats who control the Legislature, signing bills he had long resisted. One of them cuts prescription drug costs. Another caps greenhouse gas emissions to put California in the vanguard of the fight to stop global warming.
Schwarzenegger has also neutralized some of the fervent opposition he faced last year from organized labor by signing a bill to raise the minimum wage and by restoring school money that he had diverted to balance the state budget. In a nod to labor's success in defeating his initiatives last November, Schwarzenegger has also dropped his bellicose rhetoric against "union bosses."
"I wouldn't say that California's going Republican so much as the Republican gubernatorial candidate has put on Democratic colors for the sake of the election," said Jeff Lustig, a political science professor at Cal State Sacramento.
In his reelection ads, Schwarzenegger stresses such typically Democratic issues as schools, healthcare and the environment, along with the touchstone Republican topics of crime and taxes. At the same time, he has joined Democrats in pushing for $37 billion in bonds for vast public construction projects.
The overall mix has enabled Schwarzenegger to cast himself as a centrist in his battle against Angelides, who positioned himself as a liberal in the Democratic primary with a showcase proposal to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy.
For Angelides, a former developer and state Democratic chairman, the campaign has been disjointed. In the spring primary, he emphasized character, portraying himself as the rare Democrat who had the guts to stand up to Schwarzenegger budget cuts at the peak of the governor's popularity.
Over the summer, he shifted to populist economics: He vowed to fight for middle-class Californians struggling with rising costs of gasoline, healthcare and higher education. To blunt Schwarzenegger's attacks on his history of supporting tax hikes, Angelides also pledged to cut taxes for Californians who make less than $100,000 a year.
Most recently, Angelides has turned to Iraq, saying he would demand the return of California's National Guard troops from the war. The move was part of his effort to depict Schwarzenegger, who has supported the war, as a partisan crony of President Bush, a highly unpopular Republican in California.
The jumble of Angelides approaches reflects his trouble in drawing sharp distinctions with a governor who spent the year racking up bipartisan deals with the Legislature. California may be a Democratic state, but recent history suggests its voters strongly favor moderates regardless of party label.
"Anybody who can dominate the center in this state is going to win," said Gary Jacobson, a UC San Diego political science professor.
Beyond ideology, Schwarzenegger's wide lead in voter surveys also illustrates the potency of a household name, which Angelides lacks. The three Democrats with the strongest statewide poll ratings are also three of the best known: Feinstein, Oakland Mayor and former Gov. Jerry Brown, running for attorney general, and Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer, a candidate for treasurer.
For other races, some Democrats fear Angelides will fail to entice a strong turnout of his own party's voters, helping Republicans. Among the Republicans running close to their rivals were Thousand Oaks state Sen. Tom McClintock for lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, who is seeking reelection, Silicon Valley tycoon Steve Poizner for insurance commissioner and former Moorpark Assemblyman Tony Strickland for controller.
Normally, Democrats would hold the edge in all those races, but each Republican has unique advantages. McClintock, facing Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, is well known from his previous runs for governor and controller. McPherson, named to his job by Schwarzenegger to replace a Democrat who resigned, has the perks of incumbency for his race against state Sen. Debra Bowen of Marina del Rey. And Poizner is dipping into his personal fortune for his contest against Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, whose fundraising practices turned off many voters in his run for governor in the 2003 recall.
Also on the ballot are 13 propositions. Their common theme is money: They call for $46 billion in spending on highways, schools, levees and much more. The state would raise taxes, mainly on oil and tobacco, by more than $3 billion a year. The full package of ballot measures would add $84 billion in debt, including interest, to state budgets over the next 30 years.
Together, the proposals will test whether California's voters stick to the fiscal restraint they established when the state was more amenable to Republicans or embrace an expansive government agenda that buttresses its more recent standing as a Democratic stronghold.
"We could have a complete repudiation of taxes or the most massive public works spending projects we've ever seen in California," said Thad Kousser, an assistant professor of political science at UC San Diego.
"So the stakes are really quite high."
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