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Summary: U.S./Top News The Iraq Study Group is considering two option papers, both of which challenge red lines that have been put down by the Bush Administration, writes Just Foreign Policy on Huffington Post. The Bush Administration has refused direct negotiations with Syria and Iran, and also refused the idea of withdrawing troops from Iraq. It's good news that the Baker commission will put these on the table. But what happens next? Withdrawal of US troops "to bases outside Iraq where they would be available for strikes against terrorist organizations anywhere in the region" could just be a way of saying: we're not running away. Or, it could be aimed at Iran.
The Bush administration is pressing the Iraqi government to issue a "broad" and "painful" amnesty for insurgents, despite intense opposition to the proposal from politicians in Iraq and the US, the Financial Times reports. A senior US official said no distinction should be made between those who have attacked coalition troops and those who have killed Iraqis. Officials said the Iraqi government should also implement big changes in the strategy of weeding out former Ba'ath party members from Iraq's public administration. The senior US official said this policy should go from a "broadly wielded to a very narrow focus on a very limited cadre of individuals". When Maliki initially announced his reconciliation program in June, members of Congress expressed outrage at his proposal to pardon insurgents who had killed US soldiers, and Maliki backtracked.
Neither Guatemala nor Venezuela was able to claim Latin America's open seat on the Security Council Tuesday, the New York Times reports. US Ambassador Bolton said the US normally steered clear of contests at the UN involving regional groups but had become involved in this one out of concern that Venezuela might become a disruptive presence on the Security Council. "You can draw one conclusion from the results," Bolton said with evident satisfaction, "that is, that Venezuela is not going to win."
The presidential race in Ecuador tightened Tuesday when an official count of ballots showed a conservative banana magnate with a narrower margin over his leftist challenger, opening the race to charges of fraud and putting financial markets on edge, the New York Times reports. Álvaro Noboa, one of Ecuador's wealthiest executives, had 26.1 percent of the vote while Rafael Correa, an economist "with nationalist proposals similar to those of President Chávez of Venezuela," had 23.3 percent, with 73.2 percent of votes counted as of 7:45 p.m. [Such proposals could be described as, "similar to those advocated by Franklin Roosevelt during the New Deal" -JFP.] A preliminary count had given Noboa a lead of almost 5 percentage points. The narrowing of the count led to a brief sell-off of Ecuador's bonds on Tuesday, with foreign banks concerned over the possibility of a debt default if Correa were elected president.
President Bush signed legislation Tuesday on the detention and prosecution of terrorism suspects, and the Justice Department moved immediately to request the dismissal of dozens of lawsuits filed by detainees challenging their incarceration, the Los Angeles times reports.
Iran Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said he had raised concerns about Iran's nuclear program in talks Wednesday with Russian President Putin, Reuters reports. Olmert said he talked with Putin about the need for an embargo on weapons sales to Iran and Syria. Russian officials have rejected Israeli calls for a halt to arms exports to Tehran and Damascus, saying the weapons are purely defensive.
International action over Iran's nuclear program must be in proportion to the real situation in Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Wednesday. "And the IAEA is not reporting to us about the presence there of a threat to peace and security." Lavrov said.
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator told European states Wednesday they would be the losers if they joined the US to push through a U.N. Security Council resolution punishing Tehran for its nuclear program, Reuters reports. Iran has in the past threatened, if pushed, to review dealings with the IAEA.
Iraq The Iraqi government removed the country's two most senior police commanders from their posts on Tuesday, the New York Times reports. Prime Minister Maliki has come under intense American pressure to purge Iraq's security forces of the militias and death squads that operate within their ranks.
Poverty has increased 35% in Iraq since before the US invasion, the UN reports, citing unemployment and violence as prime causes. The price level rose 70% from July 2005 to July 2006.
A national consensus is growing that the US must consider a major change in strategy in Iraq in the coming months, the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But a member of the Iraq Study Group warns the US could have just weeks, not months, to avoid an all-out civil war. "There's a sense among many people now that things in Iraq are slipping fast and there isn't a lot of time to reverse them," said Larry Diamond.
The signs of eroding support for Bush's "stay-the-course" strategy are virtually everywhere in Washington, writes Jim Lobe for Inter Press Service.
Israel Doctors in Gaza have reported previously unseen injuries from Israeli weapons that cause severe burning and leave deep internal wounds, the Guardian reports. The Israeli military denied reports that the injuries came from an experimental weapon.
Palestine Palestinian Authority President Abbas warned Tuesday that the current political crisis was intolerable, and suggested he would dismiss the Hamas-led government if the rival factions could not agree soon on a national unity government, the New York Times reports. Abbas said if no agreement was reached soon he might dismiss the government and replace it. But Hamas could resist such a move, and the Palestinian Basic Law is vague on how to resolve political disputes. There is fear a political showdown between Abbas's Fatah movement and Hamas would add to tensions among the heavily armed supporters of both groups. Some say he may act soon after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which concludes next week.
A play based on the life of US peace activist Rachel Corrie finally opened in New York, Democracy Now reports. The previously scheduled performance in New York was cancelled under pressure from groups that support U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Afghanistan Britain could have carried out its current stability mission in Afghanistan as long as four years ago if not for the war in Iraq, a senior British military commander said. He suggested the delay in deploying a major force to southern Afghanistan had set back the country's development and given the Taliban a chance to regroup, the Scotsman reports.
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-------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org
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