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Voters' Approval of Congress Falls To 16%, Lowest Point in 12 Years By JACKIE CALMES and JOHN HARWOOD October 18, 2006 6:36 p.m.
Public support for Republicans' control of the U.S. Congress has eroded to its lowest point since the party took over 12 years ago. And with just 19 days until the midterm elections, both President George W. Bush and his party are in worse shape with voters than Democrats were in the October before they lost their House and Senate majorities in 1994.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll shows that voters' approval of Congress has fallen to 16% from 20% since early September, while disapproval has risen to 75% from 65%. That 16% approval statistically matches Congress's lowest point in the 17 years the Journal and NBC have polled, set in April 1992 at the height of a congressional scandal involving members' overdrafts from their House bank.
Scandals are contributing to Congress' current free-fall as well. The poll bears out the damaging impact on Republicans of a string of ethics cases, from last week's guilty plea by Ohio Rep. Bob Ney on corruption charges in the ongoing investigation of lobbyist Jack Abramoff, to the furor over inappropriate emails to House pages from Florida Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned late last month. Republicans' woes continue: As the poll was being conducted, news broke of an Federal Bureau of Investigation probe of Republican Rep. Curt Weldon, who already was fighting for his political life in Pennsylvania.
By 52% to 37%, voters say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress after the Nov. 7 election. That wide 15-point Democratic advantage is another record in the history of the Journal/ NBC poll.
Also, the result marks the first time that voters' preference for one party has exceeded 50%. In October 1994, just before voters ousted Democrats' majorities, they said they preferred a Republican- controlled Congress by a six-point margin, 44% to 38%. Back then, voters were split over President Bill Clinton, with 46% approving of his performance and 45% disapproving. Mr. Bush's job-approval rating, which had crept up to 42% in early September, has fallen back to 38%. A 57% majority disapproves of his performance.
The Journal/NBC telephone survey of 1,006 registered voters, conducted Oct. 13-16, carries a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The latest results set other records, also to Republicans' disadvantage: Fully two-thirds of the electorate rates this year's Congress "below average" or "one of the worst" -- the poorest showing on that question since it was first asked in 1990. As for the Republican Party, 32% of voters rate it positively and 49% negatively -- the highest negative ever for either party in the surveys. The Democratic Party, after months in which it also had a net negative rating only slightly better than the Republican Party's, now is viewed positively by 37% and negatively by 35%.
Perhaps more alarming for Republican strategists, who have been counting on their superior voter turnout machinery to salvage their candidates, the Democratic rank and file appears measurably more eager to show up on Election Day. Some 60% of Democratic voters express the highest possible level of interest in the election, compared with 48% of Republicans. Similarly, 53% of Democrats call themselves more enthusiastic than in the past about voting, compared with 38% of Republicans.
The electorate overall embraces the idea of breaking up the Republican Party's simultaneous command of both the legislative and executive branches. By 48% to 26%, voters call Republican control of the White House, House and Senate "a bad thing." Nearly four out of 10 voters say their vote for Congress will be a signal of opposition to Mr. Bush; two in 10 say it will signal support for the president.
With gas prices significantly down below summer peaks and the stock market setting new records, voters credit Mr. Bush somewhat for the economy's improved performance. Approval of his handling of the economy has risen to 44% from 39% in June. Still, a 52% majority disapproves.
Republicans' failure to get credit for relatively good economic news has been a continuing frustration for them. But a big reason is that it has been offset by unrelenting bad news from Iraq as sectarian violence rages there, and the Bush administration faces heightened criticism over its policy and candor. Mr. Bush's approval rating on handling Iraq has fallen to 33% from 36% in June, while disapproval has risen to 63%
By an overwhelming 68% to 20%, voters call themselves "less optimistic" rather than more optimistic about the course of events in Iraq. A 57% majority says that President Bush hasn't given good reasons for U.S. troops to remain there. And ominously for Republican congressional candidates, a 39% plurality now prefers Democrats for the ability to deal with Iraq, while just 31% prefer Republicans. That reverses the five-point edge that Republicans held early last month.
Scandals haven't elevated the priority voters accord to "moral values" in the election. Just 13% cite "values" as one of the most important determinants of their vote, down from 15% at a similar point before 2002 midterm elections.
But the current run of scandal does appear to have narrowed the edge voters give Republicans on handling values issues. That advantage now stands at just 13%, down from more than 20% during the 2004 campaign. The Republican edge on handling terrorism, Mr. Bush's strongest political card since the 9/11 attacks, has dwindled to 10 percentage points from 14 in September and 24 in January 2004.
On other key issues, Democrats enjoy a record 28 percentage point edge on handling Social Security, an issue on which Mr. Bush sought to make political inroads in 2005 and a lead of 13 percentage points on dealing with the economy.