In a Referendum on Iraq The Center Peels Away
Two weeks away, the 2006 midterm elections look more than anything like a referendum on the war in Iraq – a war on which George W. Bush and his party have lost not just the political center, but significant chunks of their own base as well.
An improving economy notwithstanding, opposition to the war remains the prime issue driving congressional vote preference. And the war's critics include not just eight in 10 Democrats, but 64 percent of independents, 40 percent of conservatives, 35 percent of evangelical white Protestants and a quarter of Republicans themselves.
It matters: Among the four in 10 registered voters who favor the war in Iraq, 73 percent support the Republican in their congressional district. But many more, nearly six in 10, oppose the war – and 78 percent of them favor Democrats for the House.
That spells a continued, dramatic Democratic lead: Fifty-four percent of registered voters in this ABC News/Washington Post poll prefer the Democrat in their congressional district, 41 percent the Republican, among the highest levels of Democratic support since 1984 in ABC/Post surveys.
Among likely voters the race is a nearly identical 55-41 percent.
Another result underscores the sense of urgency many Americans give to this election: Fifty-eight percent of registered voters call it more important to the country than past congressional elections in their lifetime. Perhaps scenting blood, Democrats, in particular, say so – 69 percent of them, vs. 49 percent of Republicans.
LEAD – The Democratic lead comes mainly from the center, which simply is not holding for the Republicans: Independents, the quintessential swing voters, favor Democrats for the House by 28 percentage points, 59-31 percent. That compares to just a three-point Democratic edge among independents in the 2004 exit poll; indeed it's better than House Democrats have done among independents in exit polls since 1982.
But Democratic House candidates also are poaching on Republican turf, notably winning support from 29 percent of conservatives, compared with 17 percent in 2004; and, albeit in less of a shift, by 30 percent of evangelical white Protestants, vs. 24 percent in 2004.
Democratic congressional candidates also now lead by 54-42 percent among men – a group they haven't won since 1992. And 10 percent of Republicans favor the Democrat in their district – a small group, but greater than the level of Democratic defections to Republican candidates, just four percent.
CHANGE – A further problem for the Republicans is the war-related desire for change, and specifically for a change from the current Republican leadership. Just 37 percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance overall, down five points from September. He's been rated lower just once in his career, 33 percent approval in May – and then, unlike now, rising gasoline prices were partly to blame.
Nearly twice as many registered voters say they'll cast their ballot as a way to show opposition to Bush (31 percent) as to support him (17 percent); that is triple the level of anti-Bill Clinton voting in the 1998 midterms, during the height of the Lewinsky scandal. Sixty- eight percent of Americans say the country's off on the wrong track – the highest in 10 years, save for last May and November – a view closely related with views on the Iraq war. Sixty-five percent disapprove of how Congress is doing its job, including 45 percent of Republicans, whose party controls the institution.
And in a sign the ill will is aimed at the Republican leadership, 47 percent of registered voters say it would be a good thing if control of Congress switches to the Democrats, twice as many as say it'd be a bad thing. At this time in 1994, substantially fewer, 36 percent, said it'd be a good thing if the Republicans took control, as they did. Indeed 1994 was an anti-incumbent election; at the time just 49 percent approved of their own representative's job performance. Today more, 59 percent, approve, making it less of an anti-incumbent election, and more of a partisan protest.
Indeed the Democrats are benefiting from a substantial negative vote. Among registered voters who prefer Democrats for House, 55 percent are mainly voting pro-Democrat, but a substantial 43 percent say they're mainly voting, instead, to oppose the Republican candidate. The Republican vote is much more affirmative: Seventy percent pro- Republican, 25 percent anti-Democrat.
HORSE RACE – The congressional horse race tells more about voter sentiment nationally than about the status of individual races at the state and district level. Incumbency is powerful, late advertising matters and get-out-the vote drives can be decisive. But another result indicates that the Democrats – at least so far – are holding their own in voter contacts.
As many registered voters say they've been personally contacted on behalf of a Democratic candidate as by a Republican organization (about two in 10 in both cases). And the Democratic calls look better targeted: People who've been solicited on behalf of a Democratic candidate favor the Democrat in their district by a 45-point margin; people who've gotten a Republican contact prefer the Republican by a narrower 19 points.
ECONOMY – Bush and his party clearly want to change the subject of the election from Iraq to something (almost anything) else. Hence the president's comments today heralding the economy. It makes sense: Fifty-five percent of Americans in this poll say the economy is in good shape – the most since Bush took office.
But economic gains are not evenly spread: While 24 percent say they're getting ahead financially, as many, 23 percent, say they're falling behind, and most, 52 percent, are simply maintaining their standard of living, not improving it.
The result is that the economy, even while better-rated, is not bringing the Republicans much in the way of votes. Registered voters who are getting ahead financially favor the Republican in their district by 64-34 percent; those who are falling behind favor the Democrat by 76-18 percent. But, crucially, the big middle group, those treading water economically, go Democrat by a 17-point margin, 56-39 percent.
Moreover, those who call the economy the most important issue in their vote favor the Democrat in their district, by 57-39 percent.
ISSUES – Twenty-seven percent of registered voters call the war in Iraq the top issue in their vote; 19 percent say it's the economy, 14 percent terrorism, 13 percent health care 10 percent immigration and eight percent ethics in government.
Iraq is not only the top issue but the Democrats' most powerful one; people who pick it favor Democrats for Congress by 76-21 percent. They also hold substantial leads on the economy, as noted; and on health care, a longtime Democratic strength.
Terrorism remains the Republicans' best issue by far; they lead by 80-17 percent among people who call this their top issue. They also hold a large lead among immigration voters. For all the attention paid to the Foley scandal, ethics is the issue that not only ranks lowest, but cuts least: voters who pick it as their top issue divide about evenly in their House vote preference.
WOMEN – Men and women are equally critical of the war in Iraq, but women are more likely to call it the most important issue in their vote: Thirty-one percent of women say so, making it their top issue by far. In contrast, men divide between the economy (25 percent) and Iraq (22 percent).
Women are also 13 points more likely than men to call this election more important than past congressional elections in their lifetime – 62 percent say so, vs. 49 percent of men. IRAQ – Negative as they are, views on the war in Iraq are slightly less so than earlier this month: Then 63 percent said the war was not worth fighting, compared with 57 percent now. The fundamental point, though, is that a majority of Americans haven't endorsed the war since September 2004.
Beyond that rating, 55 percent of Americans are pessimistic about the situation in Iraq in the year ahead. Many more, 76 percent, say the war has damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world. And for the first time fewer than half, 47 percent, believe the war has improved the lives of the Iraqi people, down dramatically from 68 percent in June.
Another unsettling result on Iraq is the fact that 45 percent of Americans think the country is heading for the same kind of involvement there that it had in Vietnam (including five percent who think that's already happened).
Blame, again, is Republican-directed. Fifty-five percent of Americans say the Republicans in Congress should get a great deal or good amount of blame for problems relating to the war in Iraq. Far fewer, 35 percent, blame the Democrats.
Moreover, while 55 percent give the Republicans in Congress blame for Iraq, fewer, 43 percent, give them credit for the fact that there hasn't been another terrorist attack on U.S. soil since Sept. 11, 2001. Fewer still, 27 percent, credit the Democrats.
HANDLE – Finally, in trust-to-handle ratings among registered voters, the Democrats have a 13-point lead on ethics, nine points on the economy, eight points on Iraq and seven points even on handling the situation with North Korea. It's essentially a dead heat – Dems +1 – on trust to handle terrorism.
What's telling is that the Democrats' overall lead in congressional vote preference is larger than their leads on these individual issues. That, too, suggests that voter preferences are less about individual Democratic initiatives – and more about broader discontent, grounded in public unhappiness with the war in Iraq.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 19-22, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,200 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.