[lbo-talk] Iran, Russia, China, Europe, and Japan: A Multipolar World Order Finally?

Yoshie Furuhashi critical.montages at gmail.com
Sun Sep 3 04:30:09 PDT 2006


Absolutely fabulous. Iran, through its intransigence, dragged Russia, China, Europe, and even Japan closer to creating a new multipolar world order. -- Yoshie

<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/02/world/middleeast/02iran.html> September 2, 2006 Russia Hints It Won't Back Any Penalties Against Iran By STEVEN LEE MYERS

MOSCOW, Sept. 1 — Russia on Friday cast new doubt on the prospects for the Bush administration's efforts to punish Iran for refusing to suspend its nuclear program, even as European leaders expressed wariness at moving quickly to impose sanctions.

In Moscow, officials expressed regret that an Aug. 31 deadline had passed without an agreement by Iran to halt its efforts to enrich uranium that could be used for building nuclear weapons, as American and European officials believe Iran intends to do.

At the same time, Russian officials made it clear that they do not support retaliatory sanctions or other steps to isolate Iran's leadership. That was a view that seemed to be widely shared across Europe, despite public consternation over Iran's defiance of a United Nations Security Council resolution.

Despite weeks of diplomacy and compromise among the Security Council's permanent members — the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia — the resolute deadline set by the Security Council for Iran to halt its nuclear work seemed fairly irresolute once it passed.

Russia's defense minister, Sergei B. Ivanov, said that the issue of sanctions was "not acute," and added that diplomats from the five permanent members and Germany would meet to discuss further steps. France's Foreign Ministry said the meeting was scheduled for next Thursday in Berlin.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that Russia favored continued negotiations and not punitive measures, calling into question their effectiveness.

Even though Russia previously joined the other permanent members of the Security Council in setting the deadline for Iran to comply — with the implicit threat of sanctions — Mr. Lavrov left in doubt whether Russia would ever agree to any penalties. His view echoed one heard increasingly here: that sanctions could be a first step toward a new American-led military conflict in the Middle East.

"We cannot support ultimatums that lead everyone to a dead end and cause escalation, the logic of which always leads to the use of force," Mr. Lavrov said, speaking broadly in an address to students at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

At a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Finland, the Union's chief foreign affairs official, Javier Solana, was quoted as saying that there would now be "a period of talks" over the conflict with Iran, making any discussion of sanctions unreasonable for now.

Other European leaders also expressed eagerness to avoid the immediate imposition of punitive measures, which they fear would worsen the confrontation with Iran.

At a joint news conference in Rome with Prime Minister Romano Prodi of Italy, the French prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, called Iran's response to the international demands "totally unsatisfying," but said it remained possible "to go forward with dialogue."

Mr. Prodi agreed. "If there is a even a small opening to get to the negotiating table," he said, "it should be taken."

United States officials have said no action will be sought against Tehran until after Mr. Solana meets with Ali Larijani, Iran's nuclear negotiator, next week.

"We'll find out in the next several weeks whether we're able to proceed to sanctions," the American ambassador to the United Nations, John R. Bolton, told CNN on Friday. "We're consulting with European countries. What we're going to aim at is the leadership of Iran and the programs involving their nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities."

In Iran, meantime, officials remained defiant, arguing that the country is pursuing a peaceful, civilian nuclear program that it has a right to engage in.

Peter Kiefer contributed reporting from Rome for this article.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/01/world/middleeast/01cnd-iran.html> September 1, 2006 Europe Is Not Ready to Impose Sanctions on Iran By DAN BILEFSKY and STEVEN LEE MYERS

BRUSSELS, Sept. 1 — The European Union said today that it was too early to impose sanctions on Iran for defying a United Nations deadline to halt uranium enrichment.

Speaking in Lappeenranta, Finland, at an informal meeting of foreign ministers of the union's member states, Erkki Tuomioja, the Finnish foreign minister, said the union was determined to use diplomacy to bring Iran into line, rather than resort to the sanctions that Washington has pushed harder for in recent days.

"For the E.U., diplomacy remains the No. 1 way forward," said Mr. Tuomioja, whose country now holds the rotating presidency of the union. He said at a news conference that "this is not the time or place" for the international community to impose sanctions on Iran.

Russia, too, expressed wariness today about moving ahead with sanctions. Together, the statements by the union and by Russia cast doubt on the prospects for the Bush Admisnistration's efforts to quickly punish Iran for refusing to suspend enrichment.

In Moscow, officials expressed regret that the Aug. 31 deadline had passed without an agreement by Iran to halt its efforts to enrich uranium, a prerequisite for build nuclear weapons, as some Americans believe Iran intends to do. But at the same time, the officials made it clear that Russia did not support sanctions or other steps to isolate Iran's leadership.

That view seemed to be widely shared across Europe, despite consternation over Iran's defiance of a U.N. Security Council resolution.

Russia's defense minister and first deputy prime minister, Sergei Ivanov, said the issue of sanctions was "not acute," and added that diplomats from the five permanent members of the Security Council and from Germany would meet in Vienna on Sept. 6 to discuss further steps. The French Foreign Ministry said a meeting would be held the next day in Berlin.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia favored continued negotiations and not punitive measures, calling into question their effectiveness. Russia is one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the council, along with France, Britain, China and the United States. France and Britain are both members of the European Union.

The union's decision to put diplomacy ahead of sanctions could chill its relations with Washington, which for months has tacitly backed European diplomacy toward Iran while calling for tougher action at the United Nations.

President George W. Bush said Thursday that Iran had responded with defiance and delay to demands to halt its enrichment of uranium. American officials, meanwhile, have pressed for the Security Council to consider gradual, narrowly aimed sanctions against Iran, beginning with relatively symbolic steps such as bans on travel by Iranian nuclear officials, but building to more substantial measures like financial restrictions and trade embargoes.

European officials said the union was united over the need to exhaust diplomatic avenues toward Iran first, and that Britain and France both argued that sanctions should be kept at arm's length.

France said the world could not accept Iran's nuclear activities, while Italy identified Iran as one of the world's chief challenges. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin of France regretted "very strongly" what he called Iran's insufficient response to the U.N. resolution, but added that diplomacy had not been exhausted.

"We think it is possible to go forward with dialogue, but it is important that the international community show Iran the necessity to change position," Mr. Villepin said after meeting in today Rome with Prime Minister Romano Prodi of Italy.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, said today that he was hopeful that negotiations with Iran remain possible. "The most important thing, something we have succeeded in doing in the past, is to keep sending in the future the signal that the international community is united," Mr. Steinmeier said.

American officials have said that they will not seek action against Tehran before next week, when Javier Solana, the union's commissioner for foreign affairs, is scheduled to meet with Ali Larijani, Iran's nuclear negotiator.

"We'll find out in the next several weeks whether we're able to proceed to sanctions," John Bolton, the American Ambassador to the United Nations, told CNN today. "We're consulting with European countries. What we're going to aim at is the leadership of Iran and the programs involving their nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities."

Mr. Solana said today that at his meeting with Mr. Larijani, he will seek clarification of Iran's 21-page response to an international package of political and economic incentives offered in exchange for Tehran suspending the uranium enrichment. He stressed that the fact that Europe is willing to talk did not mean Tehran has "an infinite time" to continue its nuclear activities.

Mr. Solana's spokeswoman, Christina Gallach, said that despite the hesitation expressed today about moving ahead quickly with sanctions, the European Union and the United States remain united on their approach to Iran. "I don't think the E.U. is parting ways with the U.S.," Ms. Gallach said. Referring to the Solana-Larijani meeting set for next week, she said, "No one will bet on us getting everything we want from the meeting, but we feel it is a positive step." She said Condoleezza Rice, the American Secretary of State, supported the plan for the meeting.

Still, a senior European diplomat who spoke only on condition of anonymity said that the union was nearly unanimous in not wanting to press for sanctions.

Analysts said that the European Union's stance may amount to playing "good cop" to Washington's "bad cop" in trying to prod Iran into compliance, and that there was little chance of the Security Council quickly punitive measures in any case, since Russia and China oppose them.

"Sanctions are not on the cards for the time being, so the E.U. is trying to use a mix of carrots and sticks," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London. "The E.U. is also fed up with being strung along by Iran, but for now the only real option is to keep on talking."

Dan Bilefsky reported from Brussels for this article, and Steven Lee Myers reported from Moscow.

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aoAYfWieo2Ow&refer=japan> Tanigaki Says Giving Up Iran's Oil Would Be Difficult (Update2) By Lily Nonomiya

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said it would be difficult for Japan to cut off Iranian oil imports should the United Nations impose sanctions against Iran for its nuclear development program.

Japan is seeking to exempt oil from economic sanctions that the UN would impose upon Iran if the country doesn't abandon the program, the Yomiuri newspaper said on Aug. 21, without saying where it got the information. Japan gets about 14 percent of its petroleum from Iran, making it the third largest supplier of oil to Japan. Iran yesterday said it is ready to hold negotiations on nuclear development.

``Given Japan's high reliance on Iran for oil, it won't be so easy for Japan's economy to stop'' importing it, Tanigaki said in a speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan in Tokyo. ``While the issue of nuclear non-proliferation is very important for Japan, securing sufficient oil supplies is in the national interest.''

Tanigaki on July 27 announced his candidacy to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in elections next month. The finance minister trails in the polls behind Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso in the Sept. 20 election for the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

The winner becomes prime minister because of the party's parliamentary majority.

Abe, who has not officially announced, has 53 percent support in a Asahi newspaper poll published today, while Aso, who officially declared his candidacy this week, has 14 percent. Tanigaki had 10 percent support in the poll of 836 voters, which gave no margin of error.

`Abnormal' Relations

Tanigaki reiterated that Japan's relations with China and South Korea have are ``abnormal'' now and need to be improved. He said that Japan's friendly ties with the U.S. can't solve Japan's political issues with Asian nations.

``The Japan-U.S. alliance is a key one and should continue to be so,'' Tanigaki said. ``We certainly cannot conclude that smooth relations between Japan and the U.S. will solve all our problems.''

Relations with China and South Korea have deteriorated partially due to Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which Japan's two biggest Asian trading partners say glorifies Japanese militarism. Koizumi visited the shrine for the sixth time since becoming premier on Aug. 15, the anniversary of the end of World War II.

Tanigaki said on Aug. 4 that he won't visit Yasukuni if he becomes prime minister.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya at bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 23, 2006 02:31 EDT

-- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>



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