> Wed Aug 30, 1:02 AM ET
>
> Despite U.S. efforts to stop left-wing Nicaraguan
> politician Daniel Ortega from returning to power, a
> poll released on Tuesday showed he maintained a
> six-point lead over rival presidential candidates.
>
> Ortega, who headed the socialist Sandinista government
> in the 1980s, had the support of 29 percent of those
> surveyed, according to a poll by Cid-Gallup.
>
> Voters will choose a president on November 5.
> Nicaraguan elections include a run-off unless one
> candidate receives 40 percent of the vote or 35
> percent with at least a five-point lead over his
> nearest rival.
> In the poll, 14 percent of the 1,258 persons
> interviewed said they supported Sandinista dissident
> Edmundo Joaquin.
<<<<<>>>>>
As above indicates, election rules indicate that a candidate can win in the first round by receiving 35% of votes cast and a margin of at least 5% over the next highest voter-getter. While polls showed Ortega leading by a slim margin prior to the sudden death of former Managua mayor Lewites in June, none of them had him reaching this threshhold. Figures above indicate that support for Oretga has fallen from 32% to 29% suggesting that the small polling numbers for the late social democrat Lewites may not have been impacting the Sandinista leader as some claimed. Joaquin, however, may be doing so as the percentage cited above for him greatly exceeds the level Lewites was at.
Ortega received 41% in 1990, 38% in 1996, and 42% in 2001. He has said that he expects to receive about 40% again this time. Again, as above points out, doing so would permit him to win without the need for a 5% higher margin than the candidate coming in second place. In any event, given what he tops out at, he is quite unlikely to win a run-off. His perennial candidacy reflects the dismal state of the FSLN (whose legislative delegation facilitated the passage of CAFTA in Nicaragua).
Michael Hoover .