To peak or not to peak isn't the question. To consume or not to consume is, but it is probably not possible to muster the political will to democratically control supply and demand for fossil fuels in the next several decades, before shelf ice in Greenland and Antarctica melts down and sea levels rise and devastate coastal areas, which will exacerbate all existing social conflicts and initiate new ones.
The Associated Press says: "Chevron on Tuesday estimated the 300-square-mile region where its test well sits could hold between 3 billion and 15 billion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids. The U.S. consumes roughly 5.7 billion barrels of crude-oil in a year" (Brad Foss, "Vast Oil Pool Tapped in Gulf of Mexico," 5 Sep 2006, <http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060905/major_oil_discovery.html>). In the light of the current level of annual US consumption, it looks like it's a minor discovery.
The more we consume fossil fuels, the more greenhouse gases we produce, and the more extreme weather events, like hurricanes*, we will experience (we have gotten it easy this year so far -- phew!).
What is ironic in this context is that a large part of US oil production, refinery, and import facilities are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, which is vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storms.
Gulf of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Facts Energy Information Administration Data as of June 2005 unless otherwise noted.
Gulf of Mexico Total U.S. % from
Gulf of Mexico Oil (million barrels per day) Federal Offshore Crude Oil Production (5/05) 1.576 5.494 28.7% Total Gulf Coast Region Refinery Capacity (as of 1/1/05) 8.068 17.006 47.4% Total Gulf Coast Region Crude Oil Imports 6.490 10.753 60.4% - of which into ports in LA, MS and AL 2.524 10.753 23.5% - of which into LOOP 0.906 10.753 8.5%
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet per day) Federal Offshore Marketed Production (5/05) 10.1 50.58 20.0%
SOURCE: "Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets," <http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html>
The Minerals Management Service, a bureau in the U.S. Department of the Interior, reports: "The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-6/1/06 is 162,425,332 bbls, which is equivalent to 29.67% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels). The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-6/1/06 is 784.502 BCF, which is equivalent to 21.493 % of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF)" (" Hurricane Katrina/Hurricane Rita Evacuation and Production Shut-in Statistics Report as of Thursday, June 1, 2006," <http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2006/press0605.htm>).
That vulnerability can't be removed in the near future either.
* "Examination of hurricane intensity (Fig. 4) shows a substantial change in the intensity distribution of hurricanes globally. The number of category 1 hurricanes has remained approximately constant (Fig. 4A) but has decreased monotonically as a percentage of the total number of hurricanes throughout the 35-year period (Fig. 4B). The trend of the sum of hurricane categories 2 and 3 is small also both in number and percentage. In contrast, hurricanes in the strongest categories (4 + 5) have almost doubled in number (50 per pentad in the 1970s to near 90 per pentad during the past decade) and in proportion (from around 20% to around 35% during the same period). These changes occur in all of the ocean basins" (P. J.Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment," Science 309.5742, 16 September 2005: 1844-1846, <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844>). -- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>