[lbo-talk] Niall Ferguson bewails US imperial decline

Charles Brown cbrown at michiganlegal.org
Thu Sep 14 05:27:12 PDT 2006


They couldn't dump huge quantities of US paper, no, but that's unlikely to happen. Debt is rarely ever "collected" - big companies either roll over their debts and even borrow some more, and countries just roll over their debts in perpetuity.

^^^^^ CB: I hear this( and with respect to U.S. domestic debt too ?), and I never quite understand it. Doesn't this mean in effect that the lender has given the borrower money ? A gift instead of a loan ? In the domestic case it would mean the lending institutions are giving the "people" money. I must be missing something.

^^^^^

The more serious problem is if China or other countries decide they don't want to lend any more to the US, or don't want to lend so much. That would probably require a pretty deep US recession to balance the foreign accounts. That sounds like a good historical mission for President Hillary - a self- imposed structural adjustment program.

Doug

^^^^^ CB: Yes, this is Hudson's observation I think. He noticed it beginning in 1973, when Nixon ended Bretton Woods, I think. The U.S. exploits from the position of "debtor", deadbeat debtor.

Also, in addition to what you say, the creditor nations, like China would be adversely impacted by U.S. recession, because the creditor nations are selling so much stuff to us. Their boom is based on the U.S. buying from them. With a U.S. recession their boom would end because the U.S. wouldn't be buying as much from them.



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