Republicans could get a boost heading into the midterms from gasoline prices. Prices have fallen more than 35 cents from their $3 a gallon peak in early August and could fall another 35 cents in the weeks ahead because of the recent plunge in oil prices.
High gasoline prices have been a key factor behind the low approval ratings voters give President Bush and the Republican Congress on the economy. Democrats have also used high oil prices to paint the Republicans as the friends of Big Oil.
[WS:] Without denying a likely possibility of gas price manipulation by oil companies, I think that such a utilitarian view of political behavior is too simplistic and obscures more than it explains. To paraphrase a MC commercial - there are certain things that are priceless, while for other there is a Master Card. The trick, however, is to know which is which.
I think that one of the main motives in human behavior is to obtain emotional gratification, self-importance, and social status, and they are willing to pay a high economic price for it. This is why people go to pricey shops or restaurants even though they can obtain similar utility at a significantly lower price in less prestigious outlets. This is why they leave generous tips in those restaurants, or for that matter, make donations to charities, churches or worthy causes. Likewise, this is why they support politicians like Bush et al. who offer them emotional gratification i.e. by making them feel better than others, or more secure, or more important, or vindicated - even if that support carries a significant economic price.
In short, when their basic needs are met, people tend to vote to gain self-importance and prestige rather than to fill their bellies. By the same token, they vote against anyone who they think insults their self-importance and prestige. In that context, the loss of utilitarian value matters only if it is seen as "disrespect" and a "loss of status or prestige."
How does this relate to gas prices? People do not mind paying higher gas prices if in return they feel more prestigious and important - e.g. by looking down from their Hummers on other motorists, or by seeing "their" military kicking around some foreign scapegoats. They rebel only if they feel it is their butt that is being kicked i.e. by taking away to which they feel entitled. Therefore, they see a sudden increase of gas prices as a personal affront and disrespect, the "big guys" treating them like fools and taking them for a ride - and they rebel against that. However, a drop in gas prices has mainly a utilitarian value and is unlikely to restore the support eroded by the previous "disrespect."
Wojtek